Beneficial Rainfall Spreads Across Wildfire-Stricken Eastern Australia

Written by Team Morecast

 

The dry, hot pattern that has contributed to devastating wildfires in eastern Australia has finally changed. Tropical moisture has swept into the region, leading to widespread showers and storms. Heavy rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding, but will also help dampen fires that are still ongoing.

 

 

Soil moisture leading up to this week has been at record dry levels over portions of eastern Victoria, New South Wales, and Queensland (see map above). December 2019 was the driest on record in Australia. Those dry conditions persisted through the first few weeks of January over the east. Hundreds of wildfires have burned 10 million hectares of land since mid-2019, an area nearly equal to the island of Great Britain. The worst fires have affected portions of eastern QLD and VIC, destroying whole communities including thousands of homes.

 

 

 

 

The past few days have seen numerous, slow-moving, locally severe storms over portions of QLD/NSW/VIC (see maps above). On Wednesday the storms were affecting interior portions down through the Melbourne metro. One of the cells around Melbourne produced a wind gust to 110 kph and rainfall of 44 mm in only 30 minutes! Storms on Thursday have shifted eastward. Heavy rainfall rates will lead to localized flooding with recent burn areas particularly vulnerable. The ground there is baked and bare, reducing the absorption of excess water and enhancing the flooding and landslide risk. But the rainfall is also helping firefighters control and even eliminate some of the wildfires. More than three dozen were doused in the past few days due to the rain. The rain and shifting winds will also help clear smoke and dust out of the air, improving air quality conditions that had become life-threatening in the major population centers of the southeast.

Devastating Winter Storm Claims Dozens of Lives in Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan

Written by Team Morecast

 

A brutal winter storm has dumped heavy rains and snows over portions of southeast Iran, southwest Pakistan and southeast Afghanistan. Heavy, wet snow accumulations up to 15 cm have overloaded roofs, leading to deadly collapses. Torrential rains have turned rivers into raging rapids, flooding vast regions and destroying hundreds of homes. At least 54 deaths have been attributed to the severe weather.

 

 

 

 

Temperatures in the Afghani capital of Kabul plunged down to minus 15 deg. Hundreds of drivers struggling to get to work were forced to abandon their cars on the snow-packed roads. Officials are scrambling to reopen highways closed by the heavy weather despite a continued threat for avalanches and landslides. The flooded rivers have compromised roadways and bridges, hampering efforts to move much-needed supplies to the devastated areas. Thousands have been evacuated from threatened communities with thousands more cutoff and isolated by the high waters.

Multifaceted Winter Storm To Target Central Plains & Eastern U.S.

Written by Team Morecast

A very dynamic and potent winter storm, with characteristics more typical of spring, is currently underway across the center of the nation. The storm, which is expected to last throughout the weekend, will feature many different types of weather, and affect millions of people. With snow in the Midwest, tornadoes in the south, and record warm temperatures in the east, it will truly be a storm that gives a taste a several seasons.

The most dangerous part of this storm system will be the severe weather potential. Severe thunderstorms containing damaging winds, large hail, and even tornadoes are possible throughout the next few days. The area at highest risk will stretch from the southern plains to the southeast. Tornadoes have already been confirmed in the states of Oklahoma and Missouri. Numerous homes have been destroyed in the town of Fair Play, Missouri. Tornado warnings, flash flooding, and hail were reported on Friday evening in the Dallas, Texas area, while many flights at the Dallas airport have been delayed or canceled. Tornado watches are currently in place across several states including Arkansas and Louisiana, as the threat of even nighttime tornadoes looms. As the storm moves east, so too will the threat of severe thunderstorms.

Another aspect of the storm will be flooding rains. The heavy rain will stretch from Texas to Ohio. On average 2-4 inches(50-102mm) of rain is expected, with isolated amounts greater than 5 inches(127mm). Flash and river flooding is very possible, especially in the Ohio River Valley, as soils are already saturated from recent rains.

On the cold side of the storm, snow and ice will be the main concern. Snow has already fallen in states such as Kansas and Nebraska, with amounts ranging from 3-8 inches. As the storm ramps up on Saturday, snow and ice coverage will expand to include states in the upper Midwest and northern Northeast. Amounts will vary from 3-5 inches(7-13cm) in most areas, while portions of Michigan may see up to 12 inches(30cm). Ice accumulations of .10” (0.25cm)or greater are also possible in these areas. Strong winds will accompany the snow and ice, which may lead to power outages.

While the central and northern parts of the country get battered by extreme winter weather, most of the eastern seaboard will bask in springlike warmth. With temperatures reaching well into the 60s and 70s (16-25 degrees) over the weekend, which is 25-30 degrees above average, many people will be asking if it’s January or May. The unusually warm temperatures will lead to many records being broken, if not shattered in the coming days.

Cyclone Blake Weakens, but Another Storm Looming for the Northern Coast

Written by Team Morecast

 

Cyclone Blake has moved onshore over northern WA and weakened to a remnant low. Tropical moisture will continue to stream into interior WA associated with the low. Flooding will continue to be a significant danger in these areas. Meanwhile, the active tropical pattern will continue with another cyclone likely to be named soon near the northern coast of NT. This potential cyclone will rake slowly across northern NT and northern WA through the weekend with heavy rains and high winds.

 

 

No significant damage has been reported over the sparsely populated portions of northern WA impacted by Blake in the past few days. A few stations have reported heavy rainfall around 150 mm. The remnants of Blake will continue to move slowly south over the next several days. Tropical moisture associated with the low will continue to flow into interior WA, leading to heavy rainfall approaching 300 mm in spots. Flash flooding is likely, and runoff could eventually lead to rises on streams and rivers. Damaging winds will become less likely as the low continues to weaken, but a few gusts to 60-70 kph could still occur.

 

 

Another tropical low is organizing over the warm tropical waters just north of the coast of Northern Territory. A new cyclone is likely to be named later Wednesday or early Thursday. This cyclone will move slowly west, paralleling the coast of NT before potentially approaching northern WA late Saturday into Sunday. Heavy rainfall of 150-300 mm is likely along with dangerous wind gusts of 80-130 kph. The city of Darwin will be at risk for flooding rainfall and high winds late Friday through early Sunday.