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Cyclone Seroja Bearing Down on the Western Australia Coast

Written by Team Morecast

 

Residents of Western Australia are bracing for the arrival of Cyclone Seroja later this weekend. Evacuation orders have been issued for the outer islands. Seroja has been meandering over the Indian Ocean for the past few days, but is expected to turn southeast and pick up speed later today. Seroja will make landfall near Geraldton before racing diagonally across south-central WA.

 

 

 

Seroja affected Timor and Indonesia last weekend as a slow-moving tropical low. Torrential rainfall lead to severe flooding and landslides, destroying numerous homes and roads. As of Friday, the death toll had risen up to 167 in Indonesia alone with dozens more killed in East Timor. Thousands more have been left homeless. The prime minister of East Timor, Taur Matan Rauk, called the floods one of the most devastating natural disasters in decades.

 

 

Cyclone Seroja has intensified this week over the favorably warm waters of the eastern Indian Ocean. Another short-lived cyclone named Odette was recently downgraded just to the northeast. Odette is being absorbed by the larger and more powerful Seroja. Once this process is complete, Seroja will accelerate towards the Western Australia coast, making landfall late Sunday near Geraldton. As it picks up speed, the main threat will increasingly be damaging winds, especially near and north of the track of the cyclone (see graphic above). Gusts up to 150 kph will lead to downed trees and powerlines. Power outages will be common, some long-lived, especially in rural areas. There will be a significant storm surge as well, especially near or just north of Geraldton and up into the Shark Bay region. Heavy rain and freshwater flooding will be less of a concern due to the fast forward motion of the storm, but some minor flooding could occur in poor drainage areas.

Days of Torrential Rain Lead to Major Flooding in New South Wales!

Written by Team Morecast

A persistent pattern of heavy rainfall has led to record-breaking rainfall totals over much of eastern New South Wales in the past week. Although the rain has finally diminished, runoff is filling up rivers, leading to major flooding. Thousands of evacuations have been forced to keep local residents safe from the roiling floodwaters.

 

 

An upper low was nearly stationary over northern New South Wales from late last week through the weekend. Meanwhile, persistent onshore flow brought rich tropical moisture in from the north and east. This combination led to several days worth of abundant rainfall. Some stations in eastern NSW saw 5-day totals approach 1,000 mm (see table above). The station at Redoak tallied 371 mm in one day! These widespread heavy rains have already lead some rivers to rise to major flooding levels. Whole communities have been inundated, forcing at least 18,000 people to evacuate their homes. And humans aren’t the only species fleeing to avoid the rising waters (see tweet below).

 

 

 

Although the rain has come to an end, water will continue to flow into the major rivers with additional rises through the next few days. Additional evacuations are standing by to evacuate as a result. Clean-up is predicted to last for several weeks, if not through April. Agricultural authorities suggest the soaking rains will hamper summertime crop yields, but could prove beneficial in the longer term for wheat and other fall to winter crops.

Tornadic Supercells Plow Through the Mid-South Wednesday!

Written by Team Morecast

 

An outbreak of severe storms, including several long-lived, destructive tornadoes, tore through portions of the Mid-South on Wednesday. More than 20 reports of tornadoes were confirmed, most of them in Mississippi and Alabama. The storm system responsible for the severe weather will head east for Thursday, bringing more destruction to portions of the Southeast.

 

 

 

Severe storms broke out first in parts of Texas and Oklahoma late on Tuesday. These mainly produced large hail and localized high winds. An influx of warm Gulf moisture on Wednesday helped set the stage for tornadic storms. The Storm Prediction Center felt confident enough in the outbreak potential to include a high risk for severe storms in their outlooks, something they typically do only a few times a year. For parts of Alabama, the high risk outlook was justified. At least two long-lived and severe tornadoes rolled over the state. One moved near Tuscaloosa in the mid-afternoon, overturning cars, uprooting trees, and flattening homes (see tweet pictures above).

 

 

More severe storms are likely for Georgia and the Carolinas on Thursday. Destructive winds will be a widespread concern. Large hail and isolated tornadoes will also occur with the stronger cells. A squall line will rip across the region during the day as depicted by the blue dashed time lines in the graphic above. Other, isolated supercells will pose a threat for winds, hail and tornadoes ahead of the squall line, especially over eastern North Carolina. Residents of this region should be ready to move to shelter as soon as emergency alerts are issued for their location. Lead photo courtesy Brad Goddard, National Weather Service.

Historic Cold & Snow Grip Central and Southern U.S.

Written by Team Morecast

Much of the central and southern plains is currently under siege by an unprecedented outbreak of arctic air and snow. Numerous records for both snowfall and low temperatures have already occurred, and many more could fall in the coming days. A very strong area of high pressure that originated in Siberia, now centered over Minnesota, is responsible for the outbreak that has brought accumulating snow and sub-freezing temperatures all the way to the Gulf Coast.

Although many states are being affected by the artic blast, Texas has been dealt the hardest blow. Among the many effects of the outbreak, rolling blackouts have been numerous across the state, with over 4.2 million Texans in the dark. Texas is no stranger to extreme temperatures, but they are usually hot temperatures, not cold, as is the case now. Because of this, energy demand throughout the state has reached an all time high, thus leading to the power outages. Also, many power companies simply are unable to generate power, of any form, due to the freezing temperatures and snow.

The infrastructure in the state is not built to withstand prolonged periods of extreme cold, which has exacerbated the effects of the outbreak. Reports of frozen and burst pipes have been very common. Many cities and towns are ill prepared for snow and ice accumulations, with many not even having snow plows, so when it does happen, even small amounts can be paralysing.

This has proven to be the case in Houston, Texas, the nation’s fourth largest city. Here the .80 inches of snow (2 cm) that fell early on Monday morning was enough to shut the city down completely. Dallas, Texas, another major city, was also paralysed after 4 inches (10.1 cm) fell early on Monday. The snow in Dallas and Houston broke daily records, but the city of San Angelo, Texas broke an all time record for snowfall, coming in with 10.1 inches (25.6 cm). Snow was also seen in coastal Galveston,Texas, an extremely rare occurrence. Lake Charles, Louisiana even reported thunder-snow, just months after being ravaged by Hurricanes Laura and Delta.

Texas, an oil rich state, has seen its oil production halted due to the cold and snowy conditions. The entire state has been placed under a State of Emergency, and at one point on Sunday evening, every single county in the state was under a winter storm warning. That was a first time occurrence. For many counties along the Gulf Coast it was the first time ever being under a winter storm warning. Economists predict that between the drop in oil production and the likely agricultural losses, the arctic blast will be a billion dollar disaster for the state.

The central United States is currently one of the coldest places on Earth. Record low temperatures have been shattered in many states. Such places include Dallas, Texas, where the mercury dropped to 4 degrees (-15.5 C) on Monday morning and the high was only 14 F ( -10 C).While most notable in states such as Texas, the cold is more pronounced to the north. States such as South Dakota, Nebraska, and Minnesota have seen lows well below zero Fahrenheit (-17.7 C). The coldest temperature of the outbreak so far was -50 F (-45.5 C) in Ely, Minnesota, also a record low.

70.4% of the continental United States is now snow covered, which is the highest since January 2011.