Category: Posts EN

Marcus Blows Through Darwin; Eyes Northern WA

Written by Team Morecast

Tropical Cyclone Marcus battered northwest NT with damaging wind, heavy falls of rain, and coastal flooding on Saturday. The cyclone’s next destination is northern WA Sunday and Monday.

Marcus develop north of Tiwi Island on Friday, and then plowed through coastal northwest NT Saturday. Darwin took a direct hit from the cyclone as the center of the storm passed very close to the city.

Wind gusts in Darwin reached 122 kph (66 kts), while elsewhere gusts of 70-100 kph were common near the coast from Point Stuart to Dundee Beach.

Marcus Track and Future Impacts

As the cyclone moves over the very warm waters of the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf Saturday night into Sunday, models indicate that there is a window of opportunity for rapid intensification. Consequently, the cyclone could have more severe impacts on the north coast of WA.

Coastal residents in northern WA should prepare for strong wind gusts exceeding 100 kph and heavy, flooding rainfall. The immediate coast of WA north of the Scambridge Gulf could additionally see some minor storm surge flooding.

 

New Storm System Will Produce a Variety of Hazards over the Plains

Written by Team Morecast

A fairly strong storm system emerging over the High Plains tonight is producing a variety of weather hazards from winds and severe storms to heavy snow. It’s the latest in a pattern of active weather bridging record snowfall on both the West and East coasts.

Snow has already broken out over the Rockies. These locally heavy snows will expand further north and eventually into parts of the Lower Plains, specifically near the South Dakota – Nebraska border. Accumulations up to 8-12 inches could occur, especially in the higher terrain. Further east into Iowa and northwestern Illinois, expect snow to mix with sleet and freezing rain with icing up to 0.25″ or more.

South of the track of the low pressure, expect gusty winds over the Southern High Plains, up to 60 mph in some wind prone locations. These high winds combined with the severe drought conditions in this region will lead to an extremely high wildfire danger through Friday.

By Friday afternoon, the system will move east and draw in some Gulf moisture. A few isolated severe storms could break out from the Texarkana area up through the Ozarks. The upper level dynamics will be sufficient for severe storms. The question mark that remains is how much moisture moves north and results in instability.

Potential Cyclone Development Today or Tonight Just North of Darwin!

Written by Team Morecast

 

Model guidance and satellite imagery continues to point to the potential for a tropical cyclone to develop later today or tonight just north of Darwin, NT. Proximity to land will likely prevent this cyclone from gaining strength very quickly. Models suggest this potential cyclone will move south towards Darwin before turning west-southwest. Northern portions of Western Australia would be targeted late Saturday through Monday.

 

 

The cyclone, which would be called Marcus, will produce damaging wind gusts up to 120 kph or higher along the extreme northern coasts of NT and WA, including Darwin. Rainfall up to 200 mm in much the same area will lead to significant flash flooding. We’ll keep monitoring and issue forecast updates as needed!

 

Drought Conditions Worsening over Plains and Southwest

Written by Team Morecast

 

Major late-season winter storms hitting both coasts have been soaking up a lot of the headlines lately. But in the Plains, the story is quite the opposite. Months of below normal precipitation have led to rapidly deteriorating drought conditions (see below). Sections of the central High Plains have seen less than 10% of normal precipitation in the past month (see second image below). The official measuring station at Amarillo, Texas has recorded basically no significant precipitation since the first week of October! The Four Corners region as well as much of the Texas Panhandle, southwest Kansas, and western Oklahoma are facing extreme drought conditions. Some sections of northwest Oklahoma are even in the worst category, exceptional. In addition, quick-moving, relatively dry storm systems will result in periodic high winds and isolated thunderstorms through the next week or two. Wildfires become an extremely dangerous threat in this environment, and red flag warnings are in effect.

 

 

 

Unfortunately, the long-term outlook isn’t very favorable for increased precipitation (see below). The global weather patterns meteorologists use to make long-term forecasts are called teleconnections. These teleconnections indicate a fairly stagnant weather pattern, at least for the next few months. They would favor continued dry conditions in the High Plains, and across the southern tier in general. That’s especially bad news as we move closer to the prime growing season.