Category: Posts EN

March has already brought three intense nor’easters to the East Coast, and now a fourth storm may be brewing.

Low pressure will emerge from the Colorado Rockies on Sunday and track into the Tennessee Valley Monday. Beyond Monday, low pressure will redevelop off of the North Carolina coast and threaten the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

Along and south of the storm track, an area of rain and thunderstorms will break out. There is a risk for isolated severe weather across the south-central Plains Sunday afternoon. The threat for some gustier thunderstorms will spread across portions of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia on Monday afternoon.

Meanwhile, to the north of the low track a cold rain will could mix with snow at times.

2 Scenario Next Week

As low pressure approaches the southern Appalachians on Monday, a second area of low pressure will develop near the North Carolina coast. The location and movement of the second low are crucial to potential impacts across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

The first scenario would feature a storm track to the east-northeast out to sea. In this scenario, a wintry mix of rain and snow could impact interior Virginia. However, much of the Northeast would remain dry.

The second scenario would feature a slightly stronger low pressure system that would take a more northeasterly track. A track closer to the Northeast coast would bring a greater risk of precipitation. Cold air is expected to be in place, so much of the precipitation would likely fall as Snow or a rain/snow mix.

A favored scenario in the track of low pressure is expected to emerge by the end of this weekend.

A fairly strong storm system emerging over the High Plains tonight is producing a variety of weather hazards from winds and severe storms to heavy snow. It’s the latest in a pattern of active weather bridging record snowfall on both the West and East coasts.

Snow has already broken out over the Rockies. These locally heavy snows will expand further north and eventually into parts of the Lower Plains, specifically near the South Dakota – Nebraska border. Accumulations up to 8-12 inches could occur, especially in the higher terrain. Further east into Iowa and northwestern Illinois, expect snow to mix with sleet and freezing rain with icing up to 0.25″ or more.

South of the track of the low pressure, expect gusty winds over the Southern High Plains, up to 60 mph in some wind prone locations. These high winds combined with the severe drought conditions in this region will lead to an extremely high wildfire danger through Friday.

By Friday afternoon, the system will move east and draw in some Gulf moisture. A few isolated severe storms could break out from the Texarkana area up through the Ozarks. The upper level dynamics will be sufficient for severe storms. The question mark that remains is how much moisture moves north and results in instability.