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A fairly strong storm system emerging over the High Plains tonight is producing a variety of weather hazards from winds and severe storms to heavy snow. It’s the latest in a pattern of active weather bridging record snowfall on both the West and East coasts.

Snow has already broken out over the Rockies. These locally heavy snows will expand further north and eventually into parts of the Lower Plains, specifically near the South Dakota – Nebraska border. Accumulations up to 8-12 inches could occur, especially in the higher terrain. Further east into Iowa and northwestern Illinois, expect snow to mix with sleet and freezing rain with icing up to 0.25″ or more.

South of the track of the low pressure, expect gusty winds over the Southern High Plains, up to 60 mph in some wind prone locations. These high winds combined with the severe drought conditions in this region will lead to an extremely high wildfire danger through Friday.

By Friday afternoon, the system will move east and draw in some Gulf moisture. A few isolated severe storms could break out from the Texarkana area up through the Ozarks. The upper level dynamics will be sufficient for severe storms. The question mark that remains is how much moisture moves north and results in instability.

 

Major late-season winter storms hitting both coasts have been soaking up a lot of the headlines lately. But in the Plains, the story is quite the opposite. Months of below normal precipitation have led to rapidly deteriorating drought conditions (see below). Sections of the central High Plains have seen less than 10% of normal precipitation in the past month (see second image below). The official measuring station at Amarillo, Texas has recorded basically no significant precipitation since the first week of October! The Four Corners region as well as much of the Texas Panhandle, southwest Kansas, and western Oklahoma are facing extreme drought conditions. Some sections of northwest Oklahoma are even in the worst category, exceptional. In addition, quick-moving, relatively dry storm systems will result in periodic high winds and isolated thunderstorms through the next week or two. Wildfires become an extremely dangerous threat in this environment, and red flag warnings are in effect.

 

 

 

Unfortunately, the long-term outlook isn’t very favorable for increased precipitation (see below). The global weather patterns meteorologists use to make long-term forecasts are called teleconnections. These teleconnections indicate a fairly stagnant weather pattern, at least for the next few months. They would favor continued dry conditions in the High Plains, and across the southern tier in general. That’s especially bad news as we move closer to the prime growing season.

 

 

Folks in the Northeast U.S. need look no further than their own front yards for a heavy blanket of snow and scenes of a winter wonderland. Accumulations of up to two feet (see map below) combined with high winds have led to hundreds of thousands of homes without power. It’s the third time in two weeks that a blizzard-like storm has wreaked havoc across this region – some communities are buried under several feet of heavy, wet snow. While snow is diminishing across parts of the region, portions of Maine and Maritime Canada will see additional accumulations well into tonight and early Wednesday morning.

 

 

Ironically, today (March 13th) is the twenty-fifth anniversary of one of the most intense and impactful winter storms in recent history, one that dropped several feet of snow in one storm! The March ’93 Superstorm (satellite image below) plastered a swath all the way from Alabama to eastern Canada with feet of snow, setting records up and down the Eastern Seaboard and Appalachians. It also produced a severe derecho across portions of Florida and Cuba with widespread damaging winds. It even produced a hurricane-like storm surge over the Gulf coast of Florida that measured up to twelve feet, costing dozens of lives in Florida!