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Severe thunderstorms will threaten parts of Texas Tuesday and Wednesday with large hail and damaging winds.

The Details

A strong disturbance moving across the Southwest U.S. will tap into a warm and unstable air mass across Texas bringing some rounds of severe weather.

The first round occurred on Monday with reports of large hail up to 7 cm in diameter across northwest Texas.

More severe storms are expected Tuesday afternoon and night from Little Rock, Arkansas southwest to near Dallas and San Antonio, Texas. Large hail will again be the primary concern. However, damaging winds, frequent lightning and local flash flooding are a risk in the stronger storms.

The disturbance responsible for the severe weather will push out into the Plains on Wednesday. This will shift the severe concern a bit farther to the southeast for Wednesday afternoon and night.

San Antonio will again be at risk for severe weather on Wednesday, and this threat will shift into new areas such as Houston, Texas. Damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding could threaten communities that experience a severe storm later on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Jelawat developed in the West Pacific on Sunday, however, it is not expected to threaten any major landmasses.

Future Track Details

The center of Jelawat passed in between the island nations of Micronesia and Palau on Monday. The Micronesian island of Yap Island picked up over 180 mm of rain early this week as the center passed off to the west.

The storm will track northward through Wednesday, and then get steered toward the northeast thanks to a cold front moving southward from Japan.

The expected curve to the northeast will keep the center of Jelawat far from any major landmasses.

Later this week, east-facing coastal locations of the Philippians, Taiwan, northward to Japan should expected to see rough surf. Direct wind and rain impacts are not expected.

Will Jelawat Strengthen?

Warm ocean water temperatures of 27-29°C have allowed Jelawat to acquire tropical characteristics. However, as the cyclone continues northward it will encounter stronger westerly wind shear. The wind shear will have a negative effect on Jelawat, and weakening is expected beyond Wednesday.

Once the Jelawat turns toward the northeast, the cyclone is expected to lose its tropical characteristics as wind shear increases and sea-surface temperatures cool to below 25°C.

After a very quiet beginning and middle of the west coast ski season, things have picked up big time in March. A particularly juicy storm has dropped several feet of snow just in the past week or so! As you can see in the table below, this latest storm has more than doubled the base snow depth at several resorts, in some cases much more than doubled. Additional snows locally up to a foot can be expected in the next couple of days before the pattern dries out.

Mammoth Mountain was the big winner with the current storm, reporting 88 inches (224 cm), or more than seven feet, in the past seven days. That brings them up to 141 inches so far for the month of March. Compare that to the 106 inches they had tallied through the first six months of the season (see graph below). The 35 inches the mountain saw on 22-March was a higher amount by itself than any previous month except for January (36 inches). The 141-inch total so far is already the fourth-most snowfall the Mountain has seen in March in the past 50 years with still another week to go.