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Watching Two Potential Cyclone Threats for Coast of Australia

Written by Team Morecast

The weather is generally quiet to start off the week across much of Australia, however, there are two tropical cyclone threats to watch.

Tropical Cyclone 13

Tropical Cyclone 13 developed on Monday in the Coral Sea about 1,500 km northeast of Brisbane.

The cyclone is expected to strengthen some through Wednesday morning as it tracks southwestward across warmer waters. Steering winds will take TC 13 toward the south-central QLD coast on Thursday, however, the storm will encounter colder waters and increased wind sheer. Consequently, a weakening trend is expected beginning later on Wednesday.

Beyond Thursday, the TC 13 is expected to take a more southerly turn. The south track should keep the cyclone just off shore for the end of the week and this weekend.

Despite some weakening later in the week, gusty winds in excess of 60 kph are expected to develop Wednesday across coastal southeast QLD. Winds will remain gusty on Thursday as the storm nears the coast. Showers and perhaps a steadier rain could impact southeast QLD beginning Wednesday night and continuing into Friday.

Second Cyclone Threat

The second potential cyclone looks to form close to the coast of Northern Territory later this week. This development would mean potential rain and wind impacts along the coastline from Darwin to perhaps northern WA through the weekend or early next week.

It’s too early to specify intensity and landfall information this far out. However, the ingredients are in place for a strong cyclone with very warm sea surface temperatures and weak wind shear. We’ll keep a close eye on these potential headline-makers and have updates later in the week.

Tropical Cyclone Climatology

March is historically the most active month for tropical cyclones to threaten Australia. Data collected from the Bureau of Meteorology shows that there have been 14 coastal crossings from tropical cyclones in March from 1970-2008.

Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) graph depicting TC coastal crossing points (landfalls) between the 1970-1971 and 2007-2008 tropical cyclone seasons.

The most likely areas to experience a hit from a tropical cyclone is the northern-central coast of WA. However, tropical cyclone coastal crossings have been observed as far south as near Perth and Brisbane.

Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) map depicting TC coastal crossing points (landfalls) between the 1970-1971 and 2007-2008 tropical cyclone seasons.

A Third Nor’easter To Pummel New England with Snow, Wind

Written by Team Morecast

Another powerful nor’easter will batter New England with heavy snow and wind on Tuesday.

Parts of the region are still cleaning up from the first two storms earlier this month, with hundreds of Northeast residents still without power.

Storm Details

Low pressure will track northeastward from the Carolina coast Monday night toward Nova Scotia by Tuesday night.

A mixture of rain and snow will push northward up the Mid-Atlantic coast Monday night and transition to a heavy wet snow across New England Tuesday.

Snowfall rates will increase to between 1-3″ per hour in the heaviest snow bands. This is most likely to occur across southeast Massachusetts to southeast Maine. It is in this corridor that the heaviest snow totals are expected.

Nor’easter snow and wind impacts Monday night into Wednesday.

 

Boston is expected to see around a foot (30 cm) of snow, while some communities in southeast Massachusetts and Maine are likely to approach 20 inches. Farther south and west, New York will be on the back edge of storm with 1-3 inches of snow expected.

In addition to the snow, strong winds near the coast will create blizzard-like conditions at times Tuesday and Tuesday night. The combination of heavy wet snow and wind gusts over 30 mph is expected to cause some additional power outages.

 

Travel will be hazardous to near impossible at times Tuesday into Tuesday night from southeast New England to Maine.

The snow will taper off and end in most places from south to north later Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Floodwaters in Northern Queensland Slow to Recede Despite Drier Weather

Written by Team Morecast

Rivers in northern Queensland remain in major flood stage thanks to copious rainfall last week. Widespread rainfall totals of 300-600 mm have resulted in record river rises, inundating homes and businesses and forcing evacuations. The town of Ingham has been among the hardest hit. Although flood waters are starting to recede in many areas, water is still pooling downstream. The following rivers remain in major flood stage as of Sunday morning:

Murray River at Murray Flats: MAJOR FLOODING – 8.25 m (major flood stage is 8 m)
Herbert River at Ingham Pump Station: MAJOR FLOODING – 12.47 m (major flood stage is 12 m)
Flinders River at Walkers Bend: MAJOR FLOODING – 11.26 m (major flood stage is 5.6 m)

Floodwaters remain high surrounding the Willow State School summer camp near Tully. Although emergency cases have been evacuated and supplies have been delivered, dozens of students and staff remain stranded there. While there is no pressing danger, officials will attempt another comprehensive airlift today.

Drier weather will persist in the affected areas through much of the next week, allowing flooding to continue to recede. However, some rivers will remain above major flood stage for several days at least.

Another Potential New England Snowstorm This Week!

Written by Team Morecast

We’re watching another potential Nor’Easter this week as the active pattern continues. The trajectory for this system could bring the heaviest snows to coastal New England. However, it’s still to early to rule out major impacts along the entire Urban Corridor.

 

 

The storm in question will emerge from the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, where some significant snow could fall in the mountains. Later Monday, snow will expand into the Northeast, diminishing by Wednesday in Maritime Canada. As of now, we’re expecting the heaviest snows, likely exceeding six inches with totals upwards of a foot, from much of New England across New Brunswick. Lighter snows will affect New York City and Philadelphia. Winds will increase along coastal New England on Tuesday, gusting up to 50 mph.

As with any snow storm this time of year, surface temperatures and exact storm track will make major differences in snow accumulations. We’ll be able to give more detailed snow forecasts by Sunday.