Category: Posts EN

Jelawat not a Threat to Land

Written by Meteo Expert Josef Lukas

Tropical Storm Jelawat developed in the West Pacific on Sunday, however, it is not expected to threaten any major landmasses.

Future Track Details

The center of Jelawat passed in between the island nations of Micronesia and Palau on Monday. The Micronesian island of Yap Island picked up over 180 mm of rain early this week as the center passed off to the west.

The storm will track northward through Wednesday, and then get steered toward the northeast thanks to a cold front moving southward from Japan.

West Pacific tropical outlook through this week

The expected curve to the northeast will keep the center of Jelawat far from any major landmasses.

Later this week, east-facing coastal locations of the Philippians, Taiwan, northward to Japan should expected to see rough surf. Direct wind and rain impacts are not expected.

Will Jelawat Strengthen?

Warm ocean water temperatures of 27-29°C have allowed Jelawat to acquire tropical characteristics. However, as the cyclone continues northward it will encounter stronger westerly wind shear. The wind shear will have a negative effect on Jelawat, and weakening is expected beyond Wednesday.

Global sea-surface temperatures. Jelawat is located within the blueish-purple circle.

Once the Jelawat turns toward the northeast, the cyclone is expected to lose its tropical characteristics as wind shear increases and sea-surface temperatures cool to below 25°C.

Flooding Threat For Paraguay & Southern Brazil; Cooler Argentina

Written by Meteo Expert Josef Lukas

A powerful early fall cold front will bring a risk for flooding rain and storms to Paraguay and southern Brazil on Sunday into Monday. Behind the front, a blast of cool fall weather will move into Argentina.

The Setup For Heavy Rain

The cold front will push northward and run into an environment conducive for heavy precipitation on Sunday. Cities such as Asunción and Pelotas are at risk for over 50 mm of rain, which could lead to areas of flooding.

Total precipitation accumulation Sunday and Monday

Additionally, thunderstorms will likely accompanying the frontal passage as it tracks across Paraguay and into Brazil. Widespread severe weather is not expected, however, some storms could bring damaging wind gusts.

Cooler Weather For Argentina and Uruguay

Behind the front, much cooler and drier weather is expected.

After 20-30 mm of rain in Buenos Aires on Saturday, it will dry out Sunday with high temperatures only reaching the mid to upper 10’s. The last time highs failed to reach 20°C in Buenos Aires was back on October 13th, 2017.

A similar cooling temperature trend is expected in Montevideo, Uruguay Sunday and continuing into Monday.

California’s Sierra Ski Resorts Taking a Pounding This Month

Written by Team Morecast

After a very quiet beginning and middle of the west coast ski season, things have picked up big time in March. A particularly juicy storm has dropped several feet of snow just in the past week or so! As you can see in the table below, this latest storm has more than doubled the base snow depth at several resorts, in some cases much more than doubled. Additional snows locally up to a foot can be expected in the next couple of days before the pattern dries out.

Mammoth Mountain was the big winner with the current storm, reporting 88 inches (224 cm), or more than seven feet, in the past seven days. That brings them up to 141 inches so far for the month of March. Compare that to the 106 inches they had tallied through the first six months of the season (see graph below). The 35 inches the mountain saw on 22-March was a higher amount by itself than any previous month except for January (36 inches). The 141-inch total so far is already the fourth-most snowfall the Mountain has seen in March in the past 50 years with still another week to go.

 

Nora Intensifying Quickly as it Approaches Northern Queensland!

Written by Team Morecast

 

Severe tropical cyclone Nora has intensified to Category Three status over the warm waters of the Gulf of Carpentaria. Nora is compact so conditions remain relatively tranquil along the coast as of late Saturday morning. However, conditions will deteriorate quickly later Saturday afternoon into the overnight, especially from Aurukun south. Nora is expected to turn south near the western coast of the Yorke Peninsula and slow down, possibly even stalling over the southeastern Gulf or the adjacent coast for a day or so!

 

 

The heaviest impacts will fall on the coast from Aurukun down to Carpentaria. In this region, winds could gust up to 200 kph or more, leading to severe structural damage and widespread power outages. Rainfall up to 500 mm will also occur, leading to flash flooding. A moderate storm surge will affect the immediate coast, exacerbating any flooding issues.

Nora or its remnants will be slow to exit the region. Later next week, the circulation could move westward across NT and WA, producing locally heavy rain and gusty winds. We’ll have additional updates in the coming days!