Category: Posts EN

 

A band of heavy rain is moving from eastern Texas into Louisiana. The leading edge of the rain band contains some severe cells capable of producing high winds, large hail, and perhaps even an isolated tornado or two. However, the more widespread threat across the region will be flash flooding through Thursday.

 

 

The heaviest rainfall of 4-8 inches will fall from the Houston metro area through much of central Louisiana into parts of Mississippi. The time frame for this rainfall is this evening into tonight. Localized amounts exceeding eight inches are certainly possible, leading to significant flash flooding. Later on Thursday, the frontal system responsible for the heavy rains will start to weaken and move faster to the east, reducing the threat for these higher amounts.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Severe thunderstorms will threaten parts of Texas Tuesday and Wednesday with large hail and damaging winds.

The Details

A strong disturbance moving across the Southwest U.S. will tap into a warm and unstable air mass across Texas bringing some rounds of severe weather.

The first round occurred on Monday with reports of large hail up to 7 cm in diameter across northwest Texas.

More severe storms are expected Tuesday afternoon and night from Little Rock, Arkansas southwest to near Dallas and San Antonio, Texas. Large hail will again be the primary concern. However, damaging winds, frequent lightning and local flash flooding are a risk in the stronger storms.

The disturbance responsible for the severe weather will push out into the Plains on Wednesday. This will shift the severe concern a bit farther to the southeast for Wednesday afternoon and night.

San Antonio will again be at risk for severe weather on Wednesday, and this threat will shift into new areas such as Houston, Texas. Damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding could threaten communities that experience a severe storm later on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Jelawat developed in the West Pacific on Sunday, however, it is not expected to threaten any major landmasses.

Future Track Details

The center of Jelawat passed in between the island nations of Micronesia and Palau on Monday. The Micronesian island of Yap Island picked up over 180 mm of rain early this week as the center passed off to the west.

The storm will track northward through Wednesday, and then get steered toward the northeast thanks to a cold front moving southward from Japan.

The expected curve to the northeast will keep the center of Jelawat far from any major landmasses.

Later this week, east-facing coastal locations of the Philippians, Taiwan, northward to Japan should expected to see rough surf. Direct wind and rain impacts are not expected.

Will Jelawat Strengthen?

Warm ocean water temperatures of 27-29°C have allowed Jelawat to acquire tropical characteristics. However, as the cyclone continues northward it will encounter stronger westerly wind shear. The wind shear will have a negative effect on Jelawat, and weakening is expected beyond Wednesday.

Once the Jelawat turns toward the northeast, the cyclone is expected to lose its tropical characteristics as wind shear increases and sea-surface temperatures cool to below 25°C.