Potential Cyclone Development Today or Tonight Just North of Darwin!

 

Model guidance and satellite imagery continues to point to the potential for a tropical cyclone to develop later today or tonight just north of Darwin, NT. Proximity to land will likely prevent this cyclone from gaining strength very quickly. Models suggest this potential cyclone will move south towards Darwin before turning west-southwest. Northern portions of Western Australia would be targeted late Saturday through Monday.

 

 

The cyclone, which would be called Marcus, will produce damaging wind gusts up to 120 kph or higher along the extreme northern coasts of NT and WA, including Darwin. Rainfall up to 200 mm in much the same area will lead to significant flash flooding. We’ll keep monitoring and issue forecast updates as needed!

 

Drought Conditions Worsening over Plains and Southwest

 

Major late-season winter storms hitting both coasts have been soaking up a lot of the headlines lately. But in the Plains, the story is quite the opposite. Months of below normal precipitation have led to rapidly deteriorating drought conditions (see below). Sections of the central High Plains have seen less than 10% of normal precipitation in the past month (see second image below). The official measuring station at Amarillo, Texas has recorded basically no significant precipitation since the first week of October! The Four Corners region as well as much of the Texas Panhandle, southwest Kansas, and western Oklahoma are facing extreme drought conditions. Some sections of northwest Oklahoma are even in the worst category, exceptional. In addition, quick-moving, relatively dry storm systems will result in periodic high winds and isolated thunderstorms through the next week or two. Wildfires become an extremely dangerous threat in this environment, and red flag warnings are in effect.

 

 

 

Unfortunately, the long-term outlook isn’t very favorable for increased precipitation (see below). The global weather patterns meteorologists use to make long-term forecasts are called teleconnections. These teleconnections indicate a fairly stagnant weather pattern, at least for the next few months. They would favor continued dry conditions in the High Plains, and across the southern tier in general. That’s especially bad news as we move closer to the prime growing season.

 

Nor’Easter Pounds New England on 25th Anniversary of a Superstorm

 

Folks in the Northeast U.S. need look no further than their own front yards for a heavy blanket of snow and scenes of a winter wonderland. Accumulations of up to two feet (see map below) combined with high winds have led to hundreds of thousands of homes without power. It’s the third time in two weeks that a blizzard-like storm has wreaked havoc across this region – some communities are buried under several feet of heavy, wet snow. While snow is diminishing across parts of the region, portions of Maine and Maritime Canada will see additional accumulations well into tonight and early Wednesday morning.

 

 

Ironically, today (March 13th) is the twenty-fifth anniversary of one of the most intense and impactful winter storms in recent history, one that dropped several feet of snow in one storm! The March ’93 Superstorm (satellite image below) plastered a swath all the way from Alabama to eastern Canada with feet of snow, setting records up and down the Eastern Seaboard and Appalachians. It also produced a severe derecho across portions of Florida and Cuba with widespread damaging winds. It even produced a hurricane-like storm surge over the Gulf coast of Florida that measured up to twelve feet, costing dozens of lives in Florida!

 

 

 

Cyclone Linda Weakening, But Tropical Threat Looms for Top End

 

Tropical Cyclone Linda (see satellite image below) is moving close to coastal Queensland. Some gusty onshore winds are occurring over southeast sections, up to 70-80 kph on the Cape and outer islands. However, that’s about the extent of impacts as Linda is weakening rapidly and will eventually turn away from the mainland.

 

 

The next tropical threat we’re watching could target Northern Territory and Western Australia later this week. Model guidance has been pretty consistent signaling the development of a tropical low or cyclone in the Arafura Sea by Thursday or Friday. The system is likely to move south towards the north coast of Northern Territory before turning west and skirting Western Australia later this weekend or next week. Heavy rainfall and high winds would accompany any cyclone developing in this region. Rainfall amounts locally up to 300 mm will lead to serious flash flooding. Wind gusts to 120 kph could lead to scattered power outages and minor tree or structure damage.