Category: Posts EN

Major Flooding Risk For Central QLD Coast

Written by Meteo Expert Josef Lukas

A slow moving tropical low pressure system over the Coral Sea has strengthen into TC Iris on Monday. Iris will bring rounds of heavy thundery rain to the central QLD coast this week. The precipitation will bring the threat for major flooding from Ingham to Townsville to Mackay.

The Details

Iris will move slowly toward the central QLD coast this week. If the center of the storm stays out over water this week, the Iris could continue to strengthen some this week.

Regardless of strength, a persistent onshore flow will bring an abundance of moisture and numerous rounds of heavy precipitation to the central QLD coast.

Weather setup for significant flooding this week

Extreme rainfall amounts are possible, particularly right along the coast. 5-day rain totals of 200-400 mm are possible. That is a rate of about 50-75 mm each day this week.

These types of falls will bring the risk for major and widespread flooding along the central QLD coast. Mudslides, washed out roads, and building damage due to flood waters are likely in regions that experience the heaviest rain.

Total rainfall expected from Monday through Thursday

Iris is expected to gradually weaken by this upcoming weekend. This will bring an end to the heaviest rainfall, however, scattered thundery showers are still expected to persist.

US Easter Day Forecast

Written by Meteo Expert Josef Lukas

Millions of Christians across the US will celebrate Easter on Sunday. What is the weather outlook for the holiday weekend?

Northeast

A cold front will cross the Northeast later Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. This will usher in a fresh chilly air mass to the region. Snow showers will whiten some landscapes across the mountainous areas of New York and New England, while blustery and dry conditions persist elsewhere.

Highlights:
  • Brisk and chilly
  • Mountain snow showers

Southeast

The cold front crossing the Northeast will stall out just north of the area. Consequently, mainly dry weather is expected across the Carolinas back to Louisiana. Easterly winds off of the Atlantic Ocean will bring some scattered showers to the Florida peninsula.

Highlights:
  • Mild and mostly dry
  • Scattered showers across the Florida peninsula

Central States

Some precipitation will develop across the Mississippi Valley along the end of the cold front. A mix of rain, sleet, and snow will fall across Missouri, while mainly rain falls from Oklahoma through Tennessee. Across the northern Plains, seasonably cold air will dominate Easter Weekend with temperatures failing to get to 0°C in the coldest locations.

Highlights:
  • Unsettled across the Mississippi Valley
  • Cold in the northern Plains

Northwest

An area of low pressure will move into the Northwest bringing a mix of valley rain showers and mountain snow. Snow levels will start the weekend between 1,200-1,500 meters, but then fall to around 500 meters on Easter Sunday. A fresh 10-20 cm of snow is likely above 1,500 meters, while 5-10 cm of snow is expected between 500-1,500 meters.

Highlights:
  • Valley rain showers and mountain snow
  • Snow level ~1,500 meters dropping to 500 meters

Southwest

Tranquil weather will dominate the Southwest for Easter weekend. Cool and crisp mornings will give way to mostly sunny and warm afternoons for many locations. Along the central and southern California coast, patchy morning fog will be around before the sun is able to burn through the fog by midday.

Highlights:
  • Dry and warm for many locations
  • Patchy fog along the California coast

Near-Normal Weather Ahead Thanks to Neutral ENSO

Written by Team Morecast

 

Rivers in northeastern Queensland are only now starting to recede from major flood levels due to torrential rain earlier this week. Many stations reported more than 500 mm in the space of four days, on the heels of one or more heavy rain episodes earlier this month. Fortunately, the forecast looks promising for drier conditions as we head into the autumn.

 

 

Currently, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a pattern of Pacific sea-surface temperatures that has significant effects on worldwide weather, is in the negative phase. Otherwise known as La Nina, this pattern typically results in wetter-than-normal conditions, especially over the northern third of the country. The forecast for ENSO in the next month is for the index to transition from La Nina towards neutral (see graph above). The maps below show the likely result, near-normal precipitation across much of the country. The exception may be the far northern tropics and the far southeast, including Tasmania. Near to just above normal temperatures can also be expected for portions of the northwest and southeast, with cool temps over the northeast. The graphics below are provided by Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology.

 

 

 

Queensland Residents Still Recovering One Year After Cyclone Debbie

Written by Team Morecast

 

Severe Cyclone Debbie struck the central coast of Queensland one year ago today. At landfall, early in the afternoon on 28-March near Airlie Beach, it was a strong category four storm. It produced significant wind damage thanks to wind gusts as high as 263 kph, especially on Hamilton and Whitsunday Islands.

 

 

But the most widespread and lasting impact was from the record-shattering rainfall and resultant flooding. You can see in the satellite image above the extensive cloud train connecting Debbie with tropical waters to the east. More than 60 weather observing stations had monthly rainfall records broken. In some cases the old records were more than doubled! Rainfall totals exceeding 1,000 mm were common in an area that only receives up to 2,000 mm annually on average. The big winner was Plane Creek Sugar Mill, just south of Mackay. That station reported an astonishing 1.3 meters of rain!

The deluge quickly sent many rivers and streams far over their banks, overloading dams and prompting wide-ranging evacuations. Transportation was shut down in many locations for days. The storm ended up costing almost two and a half billion dollars (almost $2 billion American) and fourteen lives.

The massive spike in insurance claims overwhelmed the region’s infrastructure. One year on, some families are still waiting on the backlog to clear up. Many structures remain damaged and uninhabitable, exposed to further wear and tear by the elements. The slow response has prompted revisions to insurance claim processing in the hopes that victims of the next storm can receive the help they need more promptly.