Category: Posts EN

Near-Normal Weather Ahead Thanks to Neutral ENSO

Written by Team Morecast

 

Rivers in northeastern Queensland are only now starting to recede from major flood levels due to torrential rain earlier this week. Many stations reported more than 500 mm in the space of four days, on the heels of one or more heavy rain episodes earlier this month. Fortunately, the forecast looks promising for drier conditions as we head into the autumn.

 

 

Currently, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a pattern of Pacific sea-surface temperatures that has significant effects on worldwide weather, is in the negative phase. Otherwise known as La Nina, this pattern typically results in wetter-than-normal conditions, especially over the northern third of the country. The forecast for ENSO in the next month is for the index to transition from La Nina towards neutral (see graph above). The maps below show the likely result, near-normal precipitation across much of the country. The exception may be the far northern tropics and the far southeast, including Tasmania. Near to just above normal temperatures can also be expected for portions of the northwest and southeast, with cool temps over the northeast. The graphics below are provided by Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology.

 

 

 

Queensland Residents Still Recovering One Year After Cyclone Debbie

Written by Team Morecast

 

Severe Cyclone Debbie struck the central coast of Queensland one year ago today. At landfall, early in the afternoon on 28-March near Airlie Beach, it was a strong category four storm. It produced significant wind damage thanks to wind gusts as high as 263 kph, especially on Hamilton and Whitsunday Islands.

 

 

But the most widespread and lasting impact was from the record-shattering rainfall and resultant flooding. You can see in the satellite image above the extensive cloud train connecting Debbie with tropical waters to the east. More than 60 weather observing stations had monthly rainfall records broken. In some cases the old records were more than doubled! Rainfall totals exceeding 1,000 mm were common in an area that only receives up to 2,000 mm annually on average. The big winner was Plane Creek Sugar Mill, just south of Mackay. That station reported an astonishing 1.3 meters of rain!

The deluge quickly sent many rivers and streams far over their banks, overloading dams and prompting wide-ranging evacuations. Transportation was shut down in many locations for days. The storm ended up costing almost two and a half billion dollars (almost $2 billion American) and fourteen lives.

The massive spike in insurance claims overwhelmed the region’s infrastructure. One year on, some families are still waiting on the backlog to clear up. Many structures remain damaged and uninhabitable, exposed to further wear and tear by the elements. The slow response has prompted revisions to insurance claim processing in the hopes that victims of the next storm can receive the help they need more promptly.

UPDATE: Flooding Will Remain a Major Threat in the Mid-South Through Thursday!

Written by Team Morecast

 

A band of heavy rain is moving from eastern Texas into Louisiana. The leading edge of the rain band contains some severe cells capable of producing high winds, large hail, and perhaps even an isolated tornado or two. However, the more widespread threat across the region will be flash flooding through Thursday.

 

 

The heaviest rainfall of 4-8 inches will fall from the Houston metro area through much of central Louisiana into parts of Mississippi. The time frame for this rainfall is this evening into tonight. Localized amounts exceeding eight inches are certainly possible, leading to significant flash flooding. Later on Thursday, the frontal system responsible for the heavy rains will start to weaken and move faster to the east, reducing the threat for these higher amounts.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Severe Thunderstorms Target Texas This Week

Written by Team Morecast

Severe thunderstorms will threaten parts of Texas Tuesday and Wednesday with large hail and damaging winds.

The Details

A strong disturbance moving across the Southwest U.S. will tap into a warm and unstable air mass across Texas bringing some rounds of severe weather.

The first round occurred on Monday with reports of large hail up to 7 cm in diameter across northwest Texas.

Weather radar shows severe thunderstorms across northwest Texas on Monday. These storms produced large hail up to 7 cm in diameter.

More severe storms are expected Tuesday afternoon and night from Little Rock, Arkansas southwest to near Dallas and San Antonio, Texas. Large hail will again be the primary concern. However, damaging winds, frequent lightning and local flash flooding are a risk in the stronger storms.

The disturbance responsible for the severe weather will push out into the Plains on Wednesday. This will shift the severe concern a bit farther to the southeast for Wednesday afternoon and night.

San Antonio will again be at risk for severe weather on Wednesday, and this threat will shift into new areas such as Houston, Texas. Damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding could threaten communities that experience a severe storm later on Wednesday.