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Major Gulf of Carpentaria Cyclone Nora This Weekend!

Written by Team Morecast

Tropical Cyclone Nora is gaining strength over the Arafura Sea (see satellite image above, courtesy of Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology). Winds and rains are already increasing over Marchinbar Island. Model guidance indicates the cyclone will turn southeast into the very warm waters of the Gulf of Carpentaria. It’s a favorable environment for intensification and interests all along the Gulf coast should pay close attention!

Nora will likely be a small but severe cyclone as it approaches Mornington Island or the adjacent mainland late Sunday or Monday. The heaviest impacts will fall on this region, including northern QLD and northeastern NT. Destructive wind gusts of 200 mph are possible along with torrential rains up to 500 mm (see graphics below)! A moderate storm surge could exacerbate flooding issues in this area. We’ll continue to monitor this dangerous situation and issue further updates in the coming days.

 

 

Nor’easter #4 Targets East Coast

Written by Meteo Expert Josef Lukas

The fourth nor’easter this month will target the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through Wednesday. Rain, sleet, snow, and wind will accompany the storm from the Ohio Valley to Virginia up to Maine.

Tuesday Recap

An initial burst of precipitation on during the day Tuesday brought accumulating snow to portions of Virginia, Maryland, and Pennsylvania.

The Maryland Department of Transportation spent Tuesday treating roadways.

Wednesday Forecast

Rain, sleet, and snow will spread across NYC and southern New England by Wednesday morning. As low pressure strengthens off shore, colder air will be drawn into the storm causing the rain-snow line to sink toward the coast. Precipitation will continue, heavy at times, in southern and eastern New England through Wednesday night.

A nor’easter will bring a wintry mix of precipitation to the Northeast Tuesday and Wednesday.

In addition to the precipitation, strong winds and minor to moderate coastal flooding are expected. The combination of snow, sleet, and wind will make for difficult driving conditions on Wednesday from Virginia to eastern New England. Air travel will also be impacted, with numerous delays and cancellations likely.

The nor’easter will move away from the region on Thursday.

Prolonged Thundery Rain Event Setting up for Eastern NSW

Written by Meteo Expert Josef Lukas

A few days of thundery rain are expected across east-central NSW beginning on Tuesday. Falls of greater 100 mm are likely in the areas of heaviest rain, leading to flooding concerns.

The Details

A stiff easterly wind will develop on Tuesday and draw moisture from the Pacific into the area.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will during the midday hours and then become more widespread later in the afternoon and at night.

Waves of moderate to heavy thundery rain are expected from Tuesday night through Wednesday and into Thursday for some locations. The target for the heaviest rain is expected to be New Castle. It is within this area where widespread 3-day falls of 100 mm or more are possible.

Flash flooding is likely to occur in areas that receive greater than 100 mm of rain. Additionally, mudslides are possible in the hills.

The heaviest of the rain is expected to taper off later Thursday, but additional scattered thundery showers will continue across eastern NSW into Friday.

“Pineapple Express” Event Looming for California, West Coast This Week

Written by Meteo Expert Josef Lukas

The West Coast will be bracing for a prolonged period of heavy precipitation this week from a phenomena known as the “Pineapple Express”. Flooding rain along the coast and hills as well as heavy mountain snow will threaten some communities, especially in California.

Pineapple Express in weather refers to a river of abundant moisture that originates in the tropical Central Pacific and moves up into the west coast of the United States.

What to expect:

Steady precipitation looks to arrive in California on Tuesday and then become heavier and more widespread Wednesday and Thursday. Drier weather will move into southern California on Friday, but unsettled weather will remain farther north.

The mountains of southern California as well as the Sierras look to receive the heaviest precipitation through the end of the week. 4-8 inches (100-200 mm) of rain is possible for elevations between 500-5,000 feet (~150-1,500 meters).

Total precipitation from Tuesday morning through Friday morning.

The major cities along the I-5 corridor will also be susceptible to bouts of heavy rain. Los Angeles looks to take the brunt of the heaviest rain with 2-4 inches expected over a 3-day period.

Flash flooding and mudslides will be a concern, particularly in the hills and across recent burn areas from wildfires.

Across the Sierras above 5,000 feet, 2-4 feet (60-120 cm) of snow is likely to fall. Snow levels across southern California will be closer to 9,000 feet (~2,700 meters), which is above most mountain peaks.

Drought Relief:

Much of California remain in some form of a drought, with severe drought conditions across portions of southern California. The expected rainfall will be good news for the drought relief, despite the flooding risk mentioned above.