Early Taste of Winter for Southeast Australia

 

A strong, cold, winter-like storm is moving across southeast Australia, bringing chilly southerly winds, heavy rain, and even some mountain snows.

Friday afternoon highs in the Melbourne metro are struggling to reach 13-14 deg, the second day in a row of temperatures more typical of June or July. The cool temperatures are accompanied by southerly winds gusting 40-60 kph in the city, and 60-90 kph along the coast to the south. They’ve also seen periods of moderate to heavy rain with totals of 20-40 mm in the past 24-36 hours.

 

 

Conditions have been harsher over other parts of Victoria and Tasmania. Hobart has seen record-threatening rainfall amounts of 100-150 mm in the last few days, along with persistent south to southeast winds pushing ocean water onshore (see tweet below). Damaging winds are affecting mountainous areas of Victoria with gusts to 133 kph at Mt. William. The Victorian Alps are also seeing heavy, wet snow.

 

 

The storm will move slowly off to the southeast in the next few days, but heavy winds and rains could linger along the coast for the next day or two.

UPDATE: Large Hail & Strong Winds Imminent for Nebraska!

 

Storms over the Central High Plains haven’t gone severe yet as of 5 pm CT. However, conditions are favorable for severe cells in western Nebraska within the next hour or two. These cells will develop and move southeast towards central and eastern portions of the state as well as the Kansas border area. An organized squall line could develop this evening that would enhance the threat for high winds.

 

 

Large hail up to two inches will be likely in western and central Nebraska. Gusty, damaging winds to 75 mph will also be a threat. The tornado threat remains minimal. Conditions are less favorable towards the Missouri Valley, so the severe threat should weaken early Friday morning.

UPDATE: Storms Threaten South-Central South America with Flooding!

 

Storms have blossomed over portions of northern Argentina tonight. You can see the greens and reds blow up near the middle of the satellite animation below. These storms will tend to move southeast overnight and into Friday. Very heavy rainfall will occur with these storms, leading to flash flooding.

 

 

The heaviest rainfall of 100-200 mm are expected over portions of northwestern Argentina and western Uruguay, including Buenos Aires and areas to the north. Localized amounts exceeding 200 mm will probably occur. These torrential rainfall amounts will lead to flash flooding in spots. Storms will weaken later on Friday with the flooding threat diminishing.

 

Strong Fall Storm Targets SA, VIC, NSW, and TAS

The first major fall storm of the season is set to impact southeast Australia through the end of this week. Accompanying the fall storm will be rain and the potential for flooding, strong winds, and mountain snow.

Wednesday

A cold front will cross the Bight on Wednesday and move into coastal southeast AU by day’s end. Gusty showers and isolated thunderstorms will accompany the frontal passage. The cold front is expected to reach Adelaide on Wednesday evening and Melbourne Wednesday night.

Thursday

The cold front will sweep across southeast Australia on Thursday. Additionally, low pressure will develop near TAS and help drive strong south to southwesterly winds across the region. Gusts of 70-100 kph are likely along the coast as well as across the mountains.

Periods of rain will accompany the strong winds in many locations. Heavy rain will be likely near and to the west of the low pressure system. The heaviest rain on Thursday will likely be across TAS, especially near the Hobart area and surrounding hills.

In additional to the rain and wind, temperatures above 1,000 meters will get cold enough for the rain to change over to snow at times. A significant amount of snow in excess of 30 cm is likely at elevations above 1,300 meters between Thursday and Saturday.

Friday

Low pressure will drift northward on Friday continuing the strong wind and rain threat across much of southeast AU. Periods of heavy rain will spread northward across southern and eastern VIC.

The moist southerly flow on the west side of low pressure will combine with increasing elevation will bring an elevated risk for flooding to the VIC hills and Alps. The threat for heavy rain and flooding will continue across eastern VIC into Saturday.

The strongest storm-related impacts are expected to lighten up by Sunday, however, lingering showers and breezy conditions are likely from eastern VIC up to the central NSW coast.