Category: Posts EN

 

Tropical Storm Bud became a hurricane this evening and continues to rapidly intensify (see right side of satellite animation above). Tropical storm watches have been posted for parts of the Mexican coast where Bud’s outer bands will move ashore in the next few days. However, a direct landfall could occur later this week further north!

Bud is currently moving northwest at about 10 mph and a slow northwestward motion is expected to continue through the next few days. By midweek, a few models suggest the storm could turn more north and impact Mexico’s central Pacific coast. Most models, however, maintain a general northwestward track towards the Baja California. Direct impacts could be felt by late week.

 

 

The cyclone is currently moving through very favorable conditions for intensification. Bud is expected to be a major hurricane capable of producing winds to 115 mph ( kph) by this tomorrow. As it moves further north and west, however, it will encounter the same cooler ocean waters that weakened its predecessor, Hurricane Aletta. It’s unlikely that Bud will be able to maintain strength for landfall. Bud will likely be a tropical storm as it approaches the Baja in the late week time frame. It could still produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall, however. We’ll have additional updates later in the week as Bud moves closer.

 

Intensifying Tropical Cyclone Maliksi is moving northeast parallel to the Ryukyu Islands between Japan and Taiwan. Other than a few of the smaller, isolated island clusters, direct landfall does not appear likely. However, the cyclone could come close enough to Japan to cause some significant impacts.

 

 

Maliksi is currently located about 180 miles southeast of Okinawa, Japan, moving northeast at 20 knots. We expect the cyclone to strengthen to typhoon status shortly, although a slow weakening trend is expected thereafter. However, Maliksi will merge or interact with a system currently over Japan. The cyclone will enlarge, meaning more impacts to portions of Japan, especially the northern half of Honshu up into Hokkaido. The Tokyo metro area could be included in the impacts, which will include enhanced rainfall and strong east to northeast winds. The main time frame for impacts in this region will be late Sunday through early Tuesday.

 

A pattern of weekend storminess will continue in southwest WA, including the Perth metro area. Threats will include heavy rain, high winds, small hail, and lightning.

The system in question has already produced some increased breeziness, especially for outlying coastal areas like the Capes. Cape Leeuwin saw a gust to 87 kph early Saturday morning. This lead wave will pass through by afternoon, but another, somewhat stronger wave will move in later tonight into Sunday. A surface front will move across on Sunday with peak wind gusts generally 60-80 kph, except 80-100 kph along the prone southwest Capes and coast.

 

 

A band of showers and storms will approach later today into tonight. Localized heavy rains and high winds along with isolated lightning and small hail will accompany the stronger cells. Generalized rainfall amounts of at least 15-30 mm are likely, with amounts 30-60 mm closer to the coast. Localized flooding is likely, especially for flood-prone poor drainage areas.

 

 

A broad but active area of low pressure continues to consolidate just northeast of the Philippines. This area is primed for tropical cyclone development and will be monitored closely over the next few days.

Model guidance suggests the low pressure will continue to become better organized and could become a tropical depression shortly. Steering currents will bring it north initially before turning it to the northeast (see animation below courtesy of NCEP). On this track it will miss most of the Ryukyu islands of the west-central Pacific between Taiwan and Japan. However, it will be close enough that any deviation to the west would bring much more severe impacts.

 

 

Additionally, the models indicate that the potential cyclone could merge with another storm system over Japan. This merger will increase the threat for heavy rain and high winds for the Japanese home islands, even if the cyclone doesn’t make landfall. The likely time frame for significant impacts in Japan is Monday into Tuesday.