Category: Posts EN

Monday Recap: Northeast hit with Record Heat and Severe Storms

Written by Meteo Expert Josef Lukas

A hot and muggy air mass provided ideal conditions for record-breaking temperatures and scattered severe storms across the Northeast on Monday.

Record Temperatures

Unofficially, 18 record highs from the Midwest to the Northeast were tied or broken on Monday.

At Washington, D.C. Dulles Airport, the high of 94 degrees tied a record from 11 years back in 2007. Elsewhere, highs in the middle 90’s across central Pennsylvania and southern New York state broke several record highs, many of which were from the 1990’s.

A cold front will drop through the Great Lakes and Northeast on Tuesday bringing some relief from the heat and humidity. Across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas, Tuesday will end up hotter than Monday in some cities as the cold front will remain north of the area.

Severe Weather

In addition to the hot weather, an abundance of moisture in the atmosphere help fuel several clusters of severe thunderstorms across the Northeast.

There were a total of 191 wind and hail reports recorded by the Storm Prediction Center from Ohio to Virginia northward to Maine.

Many of the wind reports featured downed trees and power lines. In Poughkeepsie, NY, strong winds from severe thunderstorms lead to a building collapse injuring one person that was inside. Across southern Maine, severe storms knocked out power to thousands of customers.

One of the most impressive storms of the afternoon was a potential tornado producing storm across southern New Hampshire.

In the wake of Monday’s severe weather, the Northeast will get a break from the severe weather on Tuesday as the cold front brings in a drier more stable air mass.

Record Challenging Heat in the Northeast Monday

Written by Meteo Expert Josef Lukas

The new week will get off to a hot start across the Northeast with high temperatures approaching record levels.

As Morecast.com meteorologists discussed on Saturday, heat across the central US will build to the East Coast on Monday. Some sunshine combined with a hot land breeze from the southwest will push many cities above 90°F. Across the urban corridor from Washington D.C. to Boston temperatures will soar into the middle 90’s.

Impacts of Heat

The National Weather Service has issued a plethora of heat advisories across the Northeast from New York and Pennsylvania to the New England coast.

In addition to the hot air temperatures for Monday, increasing humidity will push the heat index over 100 degrees across parts of the coastal plain.

Prolonged exposure to these conditions, especially under direct sunlight which can increase the effective heat index as much as 15 degrees, can lead to heat stroke. This is a potentially deadly illness responsible for 600 deaths on average per year in the U.S.

If you have outdoor plans on Monday, drink plenty of fluids, use sunscreen, and take frequent indoor breaks.

Thunderstorm Risk

A cold front will begin to approach from the north and move into the Northeast Monday afternoon and night. As the front collides  into the hot and humid air mass, scattered thunderstorms are expected to erupt.

Some of the storms Monday afternoon and evening across the Great Lakes, New York state, and northern New England could turn severe. Damaging winds will be the biggest concern with any severe thunderstorm.

Scattered showers and storms will continue moving southward with the cold front into the Mid-Atlantic later Monday night and on Tuesday. Consequently, the hottest temperatures will be forced to the south of the Mason-Dixon line.

By Wednesday, all of the Northeast will return to more seasonable temperatures for mid June.

Another Round of Severe Storms for the Northern Plains Saturday Night!

Written by Team Morecast

 

Extremely unstable air has built up again on the northern periphery of a heat wave affecting the Midwest and Plains. High wind shear will combine with the instability to produce a significant severe storm risk. Storms are already developing over Nebraska and will expand quickly northeast towards the Upper Midwest this evening.

 

 

Storms in a similar location and environment on Thursday produced hail up to three inches (7.5 cm) in diameter, damaging wind gusts to 80 mph (130 kph) and several tornadoes. Similar hazards are likely with the strongest cells this evening. After midnight, the severe storm threat should slowly diminish, although a localized strong wind threat could persist well into Sunday morning as the storms approach the western Great Lakes.

 

El Nino Watch Posted For This Fall and Winter

Written by Team Morecast

 

Forecasters with the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) have issued an El Nino Watch for later this year. They predict a 50% chance of El Nino development by the fall, ramping up to 65% by the winter.

El Nino is the positive or warm phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO is a fluctuation in sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific which have well-recognized impacts on global weather patterns. Model guidance has continued to come into better agreement about the progression from the current ENSO-neutral conditions to an El Nino. The graph below shows ENSO forecast values, with +1 considered the threshold for declaring an El Nino status. As you can see, threshold values are threatened within a few months of the new year.

 

 

The most significant impacts from El Nino tend to occur during the winter months in the Northern Hemisphere. However, there are warm season patterns associated with the El Nino, even a relatively minor event like the one reflected by the forecast values shown above. The graphic below shows typical warm-season influences on the weather from El Nino. The warm, dry pattern in the Caribbean is correlated with decreased tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin during El Nino conditions. The El Nino phase is typically associated with stronger upper-level winds across the Atlantic basin which tend to disrupt and deter cyclone development.

 

 

Meteorologists have responded to El Nino forecasts in the last several weeks by issuing new tropical season forecasts. In April the consensus expectation was for an above-normal tropical storm season in the Atlantic. However, recent updates predict a more average or normal season. Residents of the US East and Gulf coasts as well as Central America shouldn’t breathe easy just yet, though. Some of the most infamous hurricane strikes of past years, like Hugo and Andrew, occurred in otherwise quiet El Nino-suppressed seasons. Lead photo courtesy Pixabay contributor inspirexpressmiami.