Category: Posts EN

Dangerous Squall Line Set to Explode over the Northern Plains!

Written by Team Morecast

 

Extreme instability has developed thanks to high humidity and hot surface temperatures in a narrow corridor through the Plains. Storms are blossoming in this corridor and are likely to become severe, expanding and intensifying through tonight.

 

 

It looks likely that the storms will organize again this evening into a fast-moving squall line. Widespread destructive winds will occur with gusts commonly 60-75 mph (90-120 kph) and up to 90 mph (140 kph) in localized cases. Although high winds will be the predominant threat later on, this afternoon and evening there will be cases of big hail to 3 inches (7.5 cm) in diameter and isolated tornadoes.

 

 

The squall line will persist well into the overnight into the Missouri Valley. The Topeka to Kansas City corridor could see severe storms well after midnight, towards 3-4 am CT.

Tropical Trouble in the West Pacific

Written by Meteo Expert Josef Lukas

Ubimet meteorologists will be monitoring a couple of tropical trouble spots in the West Pacific over the next week.

Tropical Disturbance #1

The first area of disturb weather is west of the Philippines with disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

Environmental conditions will be favorable for further organization over the next few days, and it’s possible a tropical cyclone could develop by the end of this weekend.

Steering winds will take this system toward the northwest this weekend into early next week. Toward the middle and end of next week, the weather pattern may favor a slower movement of this system. Consequently, interests from Vietnam to southern China should monitor the latest trends with this disturbance.

Tropical Disturbance #2

The second tropical feature of interest is located to the southeast of the Philippines. Similarly to the first disturbance, this second system will be in an environment that is favorable for tropical development over the next several days.

The steering winds will carry this disturbance toward the northwest this weekend and next week. Interests in the Philippines should continue to monitor the latest trends as rain and wind impacts are possible in parts of the country as early as Tuesday.

Climatology

The Western Pacific Ocean is no stranger to tropical cyclones. However, climatology indicates that the two systems that are being monitored are a bit too far south for cyclone development.

Windy Storms Imminent for the Plains Wednesday Evening!

Written by Team Morecast

 

We’re monitoring a severe storm threat set to break out this afternoon into tonight. These storms will organize into a fast-moving squall line this evening along the KS-OK border, accompanied by widespread damaging winds.

 

 

Strong instability is building over portions of the Central and Southern Plains thanks to afternoon heating (see animation above). At the same time, upper level winds are increasing with shear of 40-50 knots. This combination will help storms intensify in southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico in the late afternoon. As these storms move east towards southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma, a squall line should form. In the early morning hours on Thursday, expect the squall line to slowly weaken. Large hail to 2.5 inches (7 cm) will occur this afternoon and evening with the stronger cells. Later on with the squall line the main threat will become high winds 70-80 mph (115-130 kph).

 

Subtropical Storm Alberto Makes Landfall in the Florida Panhandle!

Written by Team Morecast

 

Alberto continues to track north away from the landfall point, which occurred near Laguna Beach, Florida around 5 pm EDT (4 pm CDT). Alberto has been slowly weakening today even prior to landfall, and this trend will accelerate as it moves away from water.

 

 

 

 

 

As you can see from the map below of maximum reported wind gusts, the only stations that have reported gusts higher than 50 mph (80 kph) have been over the open Gulf. Some surge flooding and rough surf has occurred to the east of the landfall point. However, the main story is and will continue to be the freshwater flooding threat.

 

 

The map below shows rainfall totals over the past 24 hours. The heaviest rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches (25-75 mm) have occurred over scattered areas of Florida and the lowcountry of South Carolina, where convergence of Gulf and Atlantic moisture has enhanced amounts. Going forward (second map below), the biggest threat for flooding rainfall will be along the track of the storm through Alabama and into the Tennessee Valley. A secondary rainfall maximum will be in the southern Appalachians where south-facing terrain enhances rainfall amounts. Three to six inch (75-150 mm) amounts will be common in these areas, leading to significant flooding.