Category: Posts EN

Tropical Cyclone Maliksi to Brush By Japanese Mainland

Written by Team Morecast

 

Intensifying Tropical Cyclone Maliksi is moving northeast parallel to the Ryukyu Islands between Japan and Taiwan. Other than a few of the smaller, isolated island clusters, direct landfall does not appear likely. However, the cyclone could come close enough to Japan to cause some significant impacts.

 

 

Maliksi is currently located about 180 miles southeast of Okinawa, Japan, moving northeast at 20 knots. We expect the cyclone to strengthen to typhoon status shortly, although a slow weakening trend is expected thereafter. However, Maliksi will merge or interact with a system currently over Japan. The cyclone will enlarge, meaning more impacts to portions of Japan, especially the northern half of Honshu up into Hokkaido. The Tokyo metro area could be included in the impacts, which will include enhanced rainfall and strong east to northeast winds. The main time frame for impacts in this region will be late Sunday through early Tuesday.

Another Stormy Weekend for Southwest Western Australia!

Written by Team Morecast

 

A pattern of weekend storminess will continue in southwest WA, including the Perth metro area. Threats will include heavy rain, high winds, small hail, and lightning.

The system in question has already produced some increased breeziness, especially for outlying coastal areas like the Capes. Cape Leeuwin saw a gust to 87 kph early Saturday morning. This lead wave will pass through by afternoon, but another, somewhat stronger wave will move in later tonight into Sunday. A surface front will move across on Sunday with peak wind gusts generally 60-80 kph, except 80-100 kph along the prone southwest Capes and coast.

 

 

A band of showers and storms will approach later today into tonight. Localized heavy rains and high winds along with isolated lightning and small hail will accompany the stronger cells. Generalized rainfall amounts of at least 15-30 mm are likely, with amounts 30-60 mm closer to the coast. Localized flooding is likely, especially for flood-prone poor drainage areas.

 

Tropical Threat Blooming in the Western Pacific

Written by Team Morecast

 

A broad but active area of low pressure continues to consolidate just northeast of the Philippines. This area is primed for tropical cyclone development and will be monitored closely over the next few days.

Model guidance suggests the low pressure will continue to become better organized and could become a tropical depression shortly. Steering currents will bring it north initially before turning it to the northeast (see animation below courtesy of NCEP). On this track it will miss most of the Ryukyu islands of the west-central Pacific between Taiwan and Japan. However, it will be close enough that any deviation to the west would bring much more severe impacts.

 

 

Additionally, the models indicate that the potential cyclone could merge with another storm system over Japan. This merger will increase the threat for heavy rain and high winds for the Japanese home islands, even if the cyclone doesn’t make landfall. The likely time frame for significant impacts in Japan is Monday into Tuesday.

Roller-Coaster Temps But Overall Warm First Five Months of 2018

Written by Team Morecast

 

We’re well into the warm season across the U.S. We’ve had several weeks of routine severe storms, and we’ve even had our first land-falling tropical storm! But it’s not that long since many were experiencing record cold temperatures and spring snow. Just how much of a roller coaster have we been on this year?

Below you can see an animated loop of temperature anomalies over the first five months of 2018. Areas of red shading are warmer than normal, and blue shading indicates cooler than normal. The reddest (bluest) areas denote areas that saw their warmest (coldest) months on record.

 

 

January saw a continuation of a persistent ridge in the west that had been causing much warmer than normal temperatures for most of the winter. Temperatures across the South and Midwest were below normal. Then, a total flip for February. Most of the eastern third saw very warm weather, indeed record-breaking warmth for a large part of the Southeast and southern New England. We were back below normal for March in the East, followed by dead-of-winter record cold for the central and eastern portions in April. May shifted totally in the opposite direction again with above normal temps almost nationwide, including record warmth from the Plains into the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic. In fact, it was the warmest May on record nationwide.

One near-constant through the first part of the year has been warm to very warm conditions in the Desert Southwest and southern High Plains. This same region has also seen below to much below normal precipitation in the same time frame (see graphic below). The combination of warm temperatures and lack of moisture has contributed to widespread drought conditions, in some cases extreme drought (see bottom graphic). The forecast into summer calls for continued warmth in the West.