Category: Posts EN

 

The Midwest has been baking through much of June, and the West has joined in over the past week with extensive heat advisories and warnings. Meanwhile, the Northeast has enjoyed very comfortable temperatures for early summer. The pattern looks to change later this week, however.

 

 

The graphic above show the departure from normal of average temperatures across the country for June, with select cities in the table at left. Much of middle portion of the country from the Rockies through the Plains to the Midwest is near or above plus five deg F. Temperatures have been near normal in the Northeast. However, the ridge responsible for the Midwest heat is expected to expand east.

The forecast graph below for Burlington, Vermont shows a steady climb late this week into early next week. This is a good representative forecast for many locations in the Northeast. Temperatures will be well into the 80s, approaching 90 degrees, for most locations, even the big coastal cities.

 

 

The last forecast map below shows expected temperature trends across the nation in the 6-10 day time frame (this weekend into early next week). Near to below normal temperatures now confined to the Pacific Northwest will expand into the Rockies. The eastern two-thirds are very likely to see above normal temperatures, in some areas far above normal. The Plains will be in the transition zone, potentially seeing a temperature roller coaster. Lead photo courtesy Air Force Staff Sgt. Josie Walck.

 

 

 

Rounds of severe thunderstorms will continue across the Plains this weekend. Damaging wind and hail along with flash flooding is likely, and by late Sunday afternoon a few tornadoes could be embedded in the strongest storms.

Saturday

A cluster of severe thunderstorms erupted across the High Plains of Colorado Saturday afternoon. These storms tracked southeast into Kansas causing scattered reports of large hail and wind damage.

Golf ball to hen egg-sized hail was common from the storms across eastern Colorado. One of the severe thunderstorms was photographed by a twitter user located to the northwest of Lamar, Colorado.

Storm northwest of Lamar, CO at 6:45 PM #cowx pic.twitter.com/8nm1LSv0rZ

— Walker Ashley (@WalkerSAshley) June 24, 2018

Sunday

A stronger disturbance will move into the Plains on Sunday sparking a greater risk for severe thunderstorm development.

A cold front moving southeastward will ram into a warm and moist flow from the Gulf of Mexico triggering some explosive thunderstorms to develop across western Kansas in the late afternoon hours. Initially, the environment will favor some rotation with the lead storms leading to the potential for a few tornadic cells.

The storms will track eastward and bring a damaging wind, hail, and flashing flooding threat to the central Plains. The heaviest storms have the potential to bring 2-5 inches of rain in just a few hours of time.

The disturbance responsible for the severe weather will be slow to move out early next week, consequently, the risk for severe weather will linger across portions of the Plains into Monday.

The 2018 summer solstice began at 10:07 GMT on 21-June in the northern hemisphere. Since the start of the solstice is close to the halfway point of the year, it marks a good time to check in on the state of the climate so far in 2018.

The maps and information below were compiled by Ubimet using close to 900 stations across the United States. The data from these stations compare 2018 observations to historical climate data with a record period of at least 30 year or more.

Precipitation:

Wetter than average conditions have dominated many locations from the northern Rockies eastward to the Midwest, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Florida.

February was a particularly wet month from the Mississippi Valley up into the Mid-Atlantic as precipitation surpluses ranged from between 200-300% of normal.

The Southern Plains and Southwest have largely been drier than normal, which is not good news for the ongoing drought in these area. January and April were particularly dry months for these regions.

The next map below takes a look at stations which are experiencing a top 5 driest or wettest year so far through 20-June. Stations experiencing a top 5 wettest year outnumber those with a top 5 driest year by a greater than 2:1 margin.

Temperature:

Warmer than average temperatures have dominated much of the United States through the first half of 2018. Communities from the West Coast to the southern Plains to the East Coast have largely been warmer than the long-term average.

There have been some colder than normal pockets that extend from Montana into parts of the Midwest; and a second area across the Appalachians. However, out of the 822 stations with temperature data only 16.7% are colder than their long-term average.

The last map below takes a look at stations which are experiencing a top 5 coldest or warmest year so far through 20-June. Stations experiencing a top 5 warmest year outnumber those with a top 5 coldest year by a 23:1 margin!

The temperature trend observed in the United States through the first half of 2018 is consistent with the latest IPCC assessment which concludes that the Earth as a whole is warming.

Keep an eye out for more climate-related information and visual content from Ubimet in the coming weeks and months.