Category: Posts EN

 

Typhoon Prapiroon has taken a rightward turn and is now expected to move closer to southern Japan than previously forecast. Outer rainbands are already starting to move onshore (see radar animation below) and conditions will continue to deteriorate through Tuesday.

 

 

Prapiroon has maintained it’s intensity overnight. It still has an eye-like feature indicative of steady strength (see satellite animation loop above). Conditions are still expected to become much less favorable soon. Prapiroon will weaken as it passes between South Korea and Japan. In addition, Prapiroon is a small storm, and strong winds and flooding rains remain confined to a relatively small area near the center. However, within that small range, expect significant impacts.

 

 

The slight rightward deviation means somewhat more impactful rain and wind for southern Japan. The island of Kyushu and far southeastern South Korea, near Busan, will see wind gusts up to 100 kph in stronger bands. A persistent southerly flow in the wake of the typhoon will feed rich tropical moisture into the mountains of central and southern Japan through much of the week. Some favored locations will see upwards of 300 mm of rainfall this week, leading to major flooding and mudslides.

 

Small but fierce Typhoon Prapiroon is currently moving north just east of the Ryukyu Islands. Model guidance is in good agreement that the typhoon will pass through the Korean Strait in the next few days. Heavy rains and winds are likely for portions of Japan and South Korea.

The typhoon is only producing damaging winds within 25 miles (km) of the center. However, stronger bands are capable of producing brief gusts as high as 100 mph (165 kph). Conditions are favorable for Prapiroon to maintain its current intensity or perhaps even strengthen a bit today. Much cooler sea surface temperatures and stronger upper level winds wait for the typhoon as it moves closer to Korea and Japan on Tuesday. Fortunately, rapid weakening is expected before the small circulation moves close enough to the Japanese and Korean coasts.

 

 

Heavy rains will be a threat for extreme southern Japan and southeastern South Korea. A few areas in the mountains could see upwards of 100 mm. Strong winds will be a very localized concern, but a few gusts of 80-100 kph could affect the coast, especially of South Korea on Tuesday night. The storm will move into the Sea of Japan later on Wednesday, slowing down and dissipating through the end of the week.

 

It’s been a typically active early winter in southwestern Western Australia. During the month of June, Perth has seen about 120 mm of rain, close to the climatological normal there. However, in the hills nearby, the Bickley station has seen more than 205 mm in June. Model guidance suggests the month of July will start with another storm rolling in from the Indian Ocean.

The storm will approach the southwest coast late on Sunday with the Capes seeing increasing winds late in the day. Winds and heavy rains will spread across much of the southwest, including the Perth metro, through the day on Monday. A second windy period could affect the region on Tuesday morning. The heaviest rains are expected in Perth on Monday afternoon and evening, when there could be some lightning. Strong storms with gusty winds and small hail could occur in this time frame.

 

 

Total rainfall amounts of 30-60 mm will be widespread across the region (see graphic above). At this time, it appears that rainfall amounts exceeding 60 mm are most likely south and north of Perth, but we can’t rule out heavier rains in Perth. The strongest winds as usual will affect the Capes with gusts exceeding 100 kph (see below). Perth will see gusts occasionally in the 60-80 kph range, strongest near the immediate coast. There may be an area of high winds up to 80 kph over inland areas as indicated by the dotted line, although model guidance is split on this possibility. Lead photo courtesy flickr contributor abstrkt.ch