Category: Posts EN

Bud Weakening, Still a Major Flooding Threat!

Written by Team Morecast

 

Tropical Storm Bud was a major hurricane as recently as Tuesday morning, when it boasted a peak sustained wind of 130 mph (210 kph). However, over the past 24 hours the storm has quickly entered much cooler ocean waters that have resulted in rapid weakening (see graphic below). Bud will continue to weaken, but will still pose a threat for heavy rain and flooding from the Baja California into northwest Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest.

 

Bud is now located about 190 miles (305 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, moving north-northwest at 6 mph (9 kph). Trends suggest the storm will continue to move generally north into the southern Baja California, then northeast towards northwest Mexico near Obregon. While gusty winds could be a minor concern for some coastal spots, heavy rain will be the much more widespread and dangerous threat.

 

 

The heaviest rains of 3-6 inches (75-150 mm) are expected from the southern Baja California into the adjacent part of mainland Mexico, especially in the west-facing slopes and foothills of the central Sierra Madre range. Localized amounts higher than six inches are likely. Expect serious flash flooding in this area, along with mudslides in steeper terrain. Lesser amounts of 1-3 inches (25-75 mm) will occur elsewhere, including into parts of southeast Arizona and New Mexico.

Severe Thunderstorms Target Ohio Valley and Northeast

Written by Meteo Expert Josef Lukas

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop Wednesday afternoon and evening from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main risks associated with storms.

Severe Weather Details

A cold front will move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast Wednesday afternoon setting the stage for some severe weather.

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front Wednesday morning and midday. As the environment becomes increasingly unstable, some of the thunderstorms will acquire severe characteristics. Damaging wind and large hail will be the primary threats from any severe thunderstorm Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Cities facing the greatest potential for a severe thunderstorm include Charleston, Pittsburgh, Albany, and Montreal.

As the cold front heads toward the Northeast coast Wednesday night, it will encounter a more stable air mass. Consequently, the risk for severe weather in the major Northeast cities from Washington to Boston will be low to non-existent.

Hurricane Bud Heading Toward Mexico; Weakening Expected

Written by Meteo Expert Josef Lukas

Hurricane Bud will track toward the Baja California Peninsula of Mexico this week. Bud is expected to weaken before making landfall on Thursday, however, rain, wind, and storm surge impacts are still anticipated.

The Details on Bud

Bud strengthened into a major hurricane on Monday as the cyclone churned through an environment favorable for tropical disturbances. Satellite imagery from Monday showed deep convection wrapped around a well defined eye.

Bud is the second earliest second major hurricane (category 3 or higher) on record. Last Friday, the first named storm of the East Pacific hurricane season, Aletta, also achieved major hurricane status.

As Bud moves into cooler waters later Tuesday and Wednesday, weakening is expected. Landfall is expected during the day Thursday near the resort town of Cabo San Lucas.

Despite the expected weakening, heavy rain, wind, and a storm surge is expected across Mexico’s southern Baja Peninsula as early as Wednesday night and continuing through Thursday and into Friday. Flooding will be the primary concern as 4-8 inches (100-200 mm) of rain falls within a 24-36 hour period.

Once Bud degenerates into a tropical low, moisture from the storm will be drawn northward into the Southwest U.S. by Friday and over the weekend. The additional moisture from Bud will bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms to cities like Phoenix, Albuquerque, New Mexico and El Paso, Texas.

Rapidly Strengthening Hurricane Bud Threatens Mexico

Written by Team Morecast

 

Tropical Storm Bud became a hurricane this evening and continues to rapidly intensify (see right side of satellite animation above). Tropical storm watches have been posted for parts of the Mexican coast where Bud’s outer bands will move ashore in the next few days. However, a direct landfall could occur later this week further north!

Bud is currently moving northwest at about 10 mph and a slow northwestward motion is expected to continue through the next few days. By midweek, a few models suggest the storm could turn more north and impact Mexico’s central Pacific coast. Most models, however, maintain a general northwestward track towards the Baja California. Direct impacts could be felt by late week.

 

 

The cyclone is currently moving through very favorable conditions for intensification. Bud is expected to be a major hurricane capable of producing winds to 115 mph ( kph) by this tomorrow. As it moves further north and west, however, it will encounter the same cooler ocean waters that weakened its predecessor, Hurricane Aletta. It’s unlikely that Bud will be able to maintain strength for landfall. Bud will likely be a tropical storm as it approaches the Baja in the late week time frame. It could still produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall, however. We’ll have additional updates later in the week as Bud moves closer.