Category: Posts EN

 

Small but fierce Typhoon Prapiroon is currently moving north just east of the Ryukyu Islands. Model guidance is in good agreement that the typhoon will pass through the Korean Strait in the next few days. Heavy rains and winds are likely for portions of Japan and South Korea.

The typhoon is only producing damaging winds within 25 miles (km) of the center. However, stronger bands are capable of producing brief gusts as high as 100 mph (165 kph). Conditions are favorable for Prapiroon to maintain its current intensity or perhaps even strengthen a bit today. Much cooler sea surface temperatures and stronger upper level winds wait for the typhoon as it moves closer to Korea and Japan on Tuesday. Fortunately, rapid weakening is expected before the small circulation moves close enough to the Japanese and Korean coasts.

 

 

Heavy rains will be a threat for extreme southern Japan and southeastern South Korea. A few areas in the mountains could see upwards of 100 mm. Strong winds will be a very localized concern, but a few gusts of 80-100 kph could affect the coast, especially of South Korea on Tuesday night. The storm will move into the Sea of Japan later on Wednesday, slowing down and dissipating through the end of the week.

 

It’s been a typically active early winter in southwestern Western Australia. During the month of June, Perth has seen about 120 mm of rain, close to the climatological normal there. However, in the hills nearby, the Bickley station has seen more than 205 mm in June. Model guidance suggests the month of July will start with another storm rolling in from the Indian Ocean.

The storm will approach the southwest coast late on Sunday with the Capes seeing increasing winds late in the day. Winds and heavy rains will spread across much of the southwest, including the Perth metro, through the day on Monday. A second windy period could affect the region on Tuesday morning. The heaviest rains are expected in Perth on Monday afternoon and evening, when there could be some lightning. Strong storms with gusty winds and small hail could occur in this time frame.

 

 

Total rainfall amounts of 30-60 mm will be widespread across the region (see graphic above). At this time, it appears that rainfall amounts exceeding 60 mm are most likely south and north of Perth, but we can’t rule out heavier rains in Perth. The strongest winds as usual will affect the Capes with gusts exceeding 100 kph (see below). Perth will see gusts occasionally in the 60-80 kph range, strongest near the immediate coast. There may be an area of high winds up to 80 kph over inland areas as indicated by the dotted line, although model guidance is split on this possibility. Lead photo courtesy flickr contributor abstrkt.ch

 

 

 

A series of storms will carry abundant moisture into Chile starting late Wednesday with heavy, flooding rains a major threat. The train of moisture will continue, especially for central sections, through the weekend. The west-facing slopes of the Andes will be particularly hard-hit.

 

 

The animation above shows the lead storm spinning off the coast of southern South America. This low will move east through the next few days, dragging a rich plume of moisture into central Chile. The front will be nearly stationary affecting the central and southern sections through early Saturday. Later in the weekend, expect heavy rain for the more densely populated northern portions of Chile, including the capital, Santiago.

 

 

The heaviest rainfall of 125-200 mm (5-8 inches) will fall in the regions of Los Rios, Los Lagos, and Aysen, as well as the adjacent border lands of Argentina. The foothills and west-facing mountains will see the heaviest rainfall with flash flooding and mudslides likely. Nearby regions will see 75-125 mm (3-5 inches). Flooding will be more localized elsewhere with totals of 25-75 mm (1-3 inches), including the capital district. The mountains will see heavy, wet snowfall during this time frame with some locations seeing up to a half-meter. Snow levels will be 2,000 to 3,000 meters in the north, around 1,000 meters in the central sections, and close to sea level in the south.