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Typhoon Maria has rapidly intensified overnight (lower right of satellite animation below) and is now producing wind gusts up to 250 kph (155 mph). Further strengthening is expected as Maria moves northwest over very warm sea surface temperatures with little wind shear. Locations from Taiwan to mainland China to Korea and southern Japan remain in danger from a dangerous cyclone strike next week!

 

 

The latest model guidance indicates a shift towards the west with Maria’s future track. The most likely track carries Maria towards the Shanghai region around the middle of next week. Although Maria would likely weaken as it approaches the mainland, that still represents a major threat to tens of millions of residents in the world’s third-most populous city. However, there’s plenty of time for steering currents to change. Eastern China, Taiwan, Korea, and Japan remain potential destinations.

 

 

Maria is likely to become a Super Typhoon in the next few days. Devastating impacts are likely for the Ryukyu Islands between Taiwan and Japan early next week. After that, Maria will move over cooler sea waters with increasing shear, leading to steady weakening.

Meanwhile, torrential rainfall continues in central and southern Japan, forcing widespread evacuations. One location in Kochi prefecture has seen 850 mm of rain over the past two days! Additional heavy rains, locally up to 200 mm, will fall in the next 48 hours. Flash and river flooding will be an increasingly widespread and serious hazard. Landslide warnings are also in effect across the region.

 

 

Severe floods force thousands to evacuate in Japan https://t.co/SzUvBdpIUf pic.twitter.com/LMrXalqR5N

— euronews (@euronews) July 5, 2018

 

More landslide, flood warnings as heavy rain lashes wide area of Japan – The Mainichi: The Mainichi More landslide, flood warnings as heavy rain lashes wide area of Japan The Mainichi The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has warned of landslides,… https://t.co/v43mjnmpQV pic.twitter.com/3R9CVqRTZ9

— globalfloods (@globalfloods_eu) July 5, 2018

 

The former Typhoon Prapiroon is moving across the northern Japanese Islands, having weakened to just a remnant low. However, a trailing stream of tropical moisture will continue to pound central and southern Japan with torrential, flooding rainfall. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Maria is rapidly intensifying near Guam (south-central portion of animation below). Maria could pose a significant threat to mainland China, Korea, or Japan next week.

 

 

Model guidance is in good agreement that Maria will intensify quickly in a very favorable environment. By tomorrow or this weekend, the typhoon could be packing winds up to 300 kph (180 mph)! The models also agree the typhoon will move generally northwest through early next week. After that, there’s potential danger lurking of a landfall all the way from eastern China to the Korean Peninsula and Japan. All interests should pay attention to this developing situation. Lead photo courtesy US Air Force.

 

 

After passing midway between southern Japan and southeast South Korea, Typhoon Prapiroon is moving across the Sea of Japan. Although the typhoon is weakening quickly, tropical moisture will continue to stream into southern Japan through the next several days. Prodigious rainfall will lead to major flooding and mudslides!

 

 

Typhoon Prapiroon will become an extratropical low over the Sea of Japan over the next few days. A nearly stationary front trailing behind will hang up over southern Japan. Moist southerly flow will be persistent through the weekend. Copious rainfall is expected, especially where south-facing mountains enhance rainfall rates. Rainfall totals of 300-450 mm (12-18 inches) will affect the red-shaded areas (see map above). A few prone areas on the island of Shikoku could see localized totals of 500-600 mm (20-24 inches)! Fortunately, the heavy rain will mostly miss the Tokyo metro area.

 

Typhoon Prapiroon has taken a rightward turn and is now expected to move closer to southern Japan than previously forecast. Outer rainbands are already starting to move onshore (see radar animation below) and conditions will continue to deteriorate through Tuesday.

 

 

Prapiroon has maintained it’s intensity overnight. It still has an eye-like feature indicative of steady strength (see satellite animation loop above). Conditions are still expected to become much less favorable soon. Prapiroon will weaken as it passes between South Korea and Japan. In addition, Prapiroon is a small storm, and strong winds and flooding rains remain confined to a relatively small area near the center. However, within that small range, expect significant impacts.

 

 

The slight rightward deviation means somewhat more impactful rain and wind for southern Japan. The island of Kyushu and far southeastern South Korea, near Busan, will see wind gusts up to 100 kph in stronger bands. A persistent southerly flow in the wake of the typhoon will feed rich tropical moisture into the mountains of central and southern Japan through much of the week. Some favored locations will see upwards of 300 mm of rainfall this week, leading to major flooding and mudslides.