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The former Typhoon Prapiroon is moving across the northern Japanese Islands, having weakened to just a remnant low. However, a trailing stream of tropical moisture will continue to pound central and southern Japan with torrential, flooding rainfall. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Maria is rapidly intensifying near Guam (south-central portion of animation below). Maria could pose a significant threat to mainland China, Korea, or Japan next week.

 

 

Model guidance is in good agreement that Maria will intensify quickly in a very favorable environment. By tomorrow or this weekend, the typhoon could be packing winds up to 300 kph (180 mph)! The models also agree the typhoon will move generally northwest through early next week. After that, there’s potential danger lurking of a landfall all the way from eastern China to the Korean Peninsula and Japan. All interests should pay attention to this developing situation. Lead photo courtesy US Air Force.

 

 

After passing midway between southern Japan and southeast South Korea, Typhoon Prapiroon is moving across the Sea of Japan. Although the typhoon is weakening quickly, tropical moisture will continue to stream into southern Japan through the next several days. Prodigious rainfall will lead to major flooding and mudslides!

 

 

Typhoon Prapiroon will become an extratropical low over the Sea of Japan over the next few days. A nearly stationary front trailing behind will hang up over southern Japan. Moist southerly flow will be persistent through the weekend. Copious rainfall is expected, especially where south-facing mountains enhance rainfall rates. Rainfall totals of 300-450 mm (12-18 inches) will affect the red-shaded areas (see map above). A few prone areas on the island of Shikoku could see localized totals of 500-600 mm (20-24 inches)! Fortunately, the heavy rain will mostly miss the Tokyo metro area.

 

Typhoon Prapiroon has taken a rightward turn and is now expected to move closer to southern Japan than previously forecast. Outer rainbands are already starting to move onshore (see radar animation below) and conditions will continue to deteriorate through Tuesday.

 

 

Prapiroon has maintained it’s intensity overnight. It still has an eye-like feature indicative of steady strength (see satellite animation loop above). Conditions are still expected to become much less favorable soon. Prapiroon will weaken as it passes between South Korea and Japan. In addition, Prapiroon is a small storm, and strong winds and flooding rains remain confined to a relatively small area near the center. However, within that small range, expect significant impacts.

 

 

The slight rightward deviation means somewhat more impactful rain and wind for southern Japan. The island of Kyushu and far southeastern South Korea, near Busan, will see wind gusts up to 100 kph in stronger bands. A persistent southerly flow in the wake of the typhoon will feed rich tropical moisture into the mountains of central and southern Japan through much of the week. Some favored locations will see upwards of 300 mm of rainfall this week, leading to major flooding and mudslides.

 

Small but fierce Typhoon Prapiroon is currently moving north just east of the Ryukyu Islands. Model guidance is in good agreement that the typhoon will pass through the Korean Strait in the next few days. Heavy rains and winds are likely for portions of Japan and South Korea.

The typhoon is only producing damaging winds within 25 miles (km) of the center. However, stronger bands are capable of producing brief gusts as high as 100 mph (165 kph). Conditions are favorable for Prapiroon to maintain its current intensity or perhaps even strengthen a bit today. Much cooler sea surface temperatures and stronger upper level winds wait for the typhoon as it moves closer to Korea and Japan on Tuesday. Fortunately, rapid weakening is expected before the small circulation moves close enough to the Japanese and Korean coasts.

 

 

Heavy rains will be a threat for extreme southern Japan and southeastern South Korea. A few areas in the mountains could see upwards of 100 mm. Strong winds will be a very localized concern, but a few gusts of 80-100 kph could affect the coast, especially of South Korea on Tuesday night. The storm will move into the Sea of Japan later on Wednesday, slowing down and dissipating through the end of the week.