Category: Posts EN

 

Record-breaking heat that was scorching the Pacific Northwest last week has shifted a bit to the east. The observation at West Glacier, Montana saw 100° F (38° C) heat for the first time on record on Sunday! Meanwhile, highs in Washington and Oregon stayed in the 80s instead of the 90s and 100s of a few days ago. However, the long-term dry spell continues with no substantial relief in sight.

 

 

The table above shows rainfall since July 1st as well as departures from normal temperatures for select cities in the Pacific Northwest. The map below shows the percentage of normal rainfall the region has received. A majority of interior Washington and western Oregon are around 10% or less of normal precipitation in the past 60 days. The picture of much drier-than-normal conditions is clear.

 

 

Further down, you can see the map of drought expansion over the past two months. From mostly drought-free in mid-May, currently almost the entire region is in a moderate to severe drought. The lack of rainfall has taken a major toll. Livestock production is reported much diminished over important grazing lands in interior Oregon, for instance. The region-wide presence of wildfire smoke and haze is adding to the unhealthy conditions.

 

 

Unfortunately, the mid-range prospects for significant rainfall are not promising. A ridge will remain anchored in place for the next few weeks. The outlooks at bottom reflect the expectation for continued hot (left map) and dry (right) weather into early September.

 

 

 

Weeks to months of below-normal precipitation have lead to dangerous drought conditions over the Southern Plains. Some areas have entered the “exceptional drought” stage, the most severe category. Fortunately, a combination of Gulf moisture and a stationary upper level trough will mean a good chance for heavy rain across the region on Sunday. While that’s potentially good news for farmers looking to rescue suffering crops and livestock, few will welcome the localized flooding that could occur.

 

 

The last few months have been exceptionally dry across Texas (see graphic above from the Climate Prediction Center). One result has been a dramatic increase in land officially designated as drought-stricken (see graphic below). More than 70% of the territory in the US Drought Monitor’s South region is now in drought category, compared to 38% in early May. The worsening drought has prompted government officials to implement mandatory water restrictions, some severe, in nearly 700 localities.

 

 

The forecast for Sunday offers some hope for at least temporary relief, even as far north as the Dallas metro. A nearly stationary upper-level trough is in place over the interior Plains. Meanwhile, surface wind trajectories are moving Gulf moisture northwest into the drought region. The combination will bring slow-moving showers and storms through much of Sunday. Most of the area will see 1-2 inch (mm) rainfall amounts with localized amounts of 3-5 inches (mm) likely. Unfortunately, rainfall rates will be briefly heavy, resulting in localized flooding.

 

 

 

 

The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season started out on a busy note. Even as the last pre-season forecasts were being released, Subtropical Storm Alberto ripped from the Yucatan Peninsula to the Florida panhandle, causing close to $125 million in damage. July saw two hurricanes form over the open Atlantic, although neither threatened land at peak strength.

 

 

However, since mid-July there’s only been one named storm, Debby, that quietly looped over the northern Atlantic this week before dissipating. The near to above-normal activity initially forecast in the spring has been slow to develop. The building El Niño expected to come into being this fall is partly to blame. The graphic below is taken from NOAA’s latest ENSO forecast report with temperature anomalies approaching the +1.0 deg C threshold for El Niño conditions in the next six months. Sea surface temperatures in the prime development area off the coast of western Africa have also been cooler than normal.

 

 

As we move through the rest of August into early September, we’ll be approaching the typical peak of hurricane activity. The ongoing quiet spell won’t last forever. However, the latest forecast calls for seasonal totals near to below normal (see graphic below).