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Lane Expected To Become A Major Hurricane & Pass South Of Hawaii Next Week

Written by Meteo Expert Josef Lukas

Lane developed in the Eastern Pacific Ocean on Tuesday and achieved hurricane status on Thursday. The cyclone is expected to reach major hurricane status (category 3 or higher) this weekend.

Environment conditions will be ideal for Lane to strengthen over the next several days. Wind shear is weak, and sea surface temperatures are between 28-30°C.

Lane is expected to acquire major hurricane status this weekend. Major hurricanes contain sustained winds that are 96 kts and greater.

Initially, Lane will be tracking toward the northwest through Sunday. Beyond this weekend, a ridge of high pressure north of Hawaii will try and force Lane to take a more westerly track next week.

If the ridge is weaker than expected, Lane could take a track closer to Hawaii. However, a stronger ridge of high pressure would force Lane farther to the south away from Hawaii.

Many Mid-Atlantic Cities Set To Have Wettest Summer On Record

Written by Meteo Expert Josef Lukas

Residents across the Mid-Atlantic have experienced day after day of tropical downpours in recent weeks setting the stage for many locations to have their wettest summer on record.

Across Pennsylvania, Maryland, and northern Virginia there are 10 locations experiencing their wettest summer on record. The data is based on meteorological summer which covers the months of June, July, and August.

Looking back to mid May, many locations in the Mid-Atlantic have seen 20-30 inches (~500-760 mm) in a 90-day period. Several rain events this summer have lead to moderate and even major flooding problems for some communities.

The copious amounts of rain since mid-May have lead to rainfall departures of 8-16 inches (200-400 mm) in a 90-day period.

Strongest Winds of the Australian Winter Target Tasmania Late Tuesday into Wednesday!

Written by Team Morecast

 

Spring isn’t far away down under, but winter has at least one more punch saved up for the southeast, especially Tasmania. The strongest winds of the season, accompanied by locally heavy rains and mountain snows, will affect the island Tuesday into Wednesday.

 

 

The rocky island of Tasmania is accustomed to gusty winds, especially during the winter months. The table above shows the max wind gusts from the season so far. The mountain peaks and exposed islands and peninsulas see peak wind gusts exceeding 100 kph on more days than not. However, gusts greater than 130-140 kph are rare. The next system to move across the Bight will be as highly energetic in the upper levels as any we’ve seen this winter. That will translate down to the surface as destructive winds, potentially the strongest of the season for many areas.

 

 

Gusts of at least 80-110 kph will be widespread, including the major population centers like Hobart and Launceston. Most of the coastal areas and higher terrain will see gusts of 100-120 kph. Known wind prone areas like Maatsuyker Island and Mt. Wellington could see gusts approach 150 kph! Strong winds will also affect portions of South Australia, Victoria, and New South Wales.

The danger from snow and rain will be relatively localized. However, totals amounts exceeding 100 mm in the western mountains will lead to some localized flooding. In addition, rain-weakened soils will be more likely to lead to trees coming down in high winds. Wind-driven snow will also be a visibility hazard at the highest peaks.

Blistering Heat Subsides in the Northwest, but Drought Still Worsening

Written by Team Morecast

 

Record-breaking heat that was scorching the Pacific Northwest last week has shifted a bit to the east. The observation at West Glacier, Montana saw 100° F (38° C) heat for the first time on record on Sunday! Meanwhile, highs in Washington and Oregon stayed in the 80s instead of the 90s and 100s of a few days ago. However, the long-term dry spell continues with no substantial relief in sight.

 

 

The table above shows rainfall since July 1st as well as departures from normal temperatures for select cities in the Pacific Northwest. The map below shows the percentage of normal rainfall the region has received. A majority of interior Washington and western Oregon are around 10% or less of normal precipitation in the past 60 days. The picture of much drier-than-normal conditions is clear.

 

 

Further down, you can see the map of drought expansion over the past two months. From mostly drought-free in mid-May, currently almost the entire region is in a moderate to severe drought. The lack of rainfall has taken a major toll. Livestock production is reported much diminished over important grazing lands in interior Oregon, for instance. The region-wide presence of wildfire smoke and haze is adding to the unhealthy conditions.

 

 

Unfortunately, the mid-range prospects for significant rainfall are not promising. A ridge will remain anchored in place for the next few weeks. The outlooks at bottom reflect the expectation for continued hot (left map) and dry (right) weather into early September.