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Hurricane Lane remains a powerful category four storm with sustained winds up to 150 mph (240 kph). Lane briefly reached category five status this morning, but has since weakened a bit. However, the storm remains a major threat to the Hawaiian Islands in the next several days. Outer rain bands are already moving over the Big Island:

Lane had been moving west-northwestward for the past few days but has begun to turn more northwesterly. The cyclone will move generally north-northwest on Thursday before a gradual turn to the west on Friday. Where and when this turn occurs will determine whether the islands get a direct hit or a significant but glancing blow. The latest model guidance indicates the turn will occur soon enough to avoid a direct landfall. However, a slim possibility still exists for a northward track that would bring more severe impacts.

Lane has probably peaked in intensity. The circulation will be moving over cooler waters in the next few days, causing further gradual weakening. The storm will pass close enough to spell some significant impacts for the Hawaiian Islands, though. The south and west sides of the islands are in for the worst weather. Likely hazards include:

• Torrential, flooding rainfall and mudslides. Widespread amounts of 6-12 inches (150-300 mm), locally 24 inches (600 mm) on the south-facing mountain slopes.
• Damaging wind gusts. Up to 70-80 mph (110-130 kph) in spots along the coast leading to trees down and long-lasting power outages. Major cities like Honolulu and Hilo likely to see gusts 50-60 mph (80-100 kph). A few tornadoes could produce locally enhanced winds as well.
• Storm surge locally as much as 3-4 feet in prone locations.

Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a very healthy looking Hurricane Lane churning south-southeast of Hawaii. Sustained winds have increased to 155 mph, almost to the category five threshold. To make matters worse, model guidance today has shifted the future track to the north and east. Only three hurricanes have moved directly over the islands since reliable record-keeping began. However, major impacts, possibly even a direct landfall, look much more likely for the islands later this week.

Hurricane watches have been posted by the National Hurricane Center for the islands south of Oahu. Additional watches and warnings are likely in the next few days. Lane is moving west-northwest but is expected to turn more northwest on Wednesday. By Thursday into Friday, the hurricane will be nearing the main Hawaiian Islands, including Maui and the Big Island. Eventually the cyclone will turn more to the west, but it’s not clear whether this turn will take place before or after passing through the islands.

Lane intensified significantly last night into earlier today. It is unlikely that much more intensification will occur. Slow weakening is more probable as the system moves into cooler waters. However, even if a gradual weakening trend does occur, Lane will still be a powerful cyclone. Flooding rains, damaging winds, and a significant storm surge are likely even if the storm remains slightly offshore. Obviously a direct landfall would mean more severe impacts.

Major Hurricane Lane is moving steadily west across the open Pacific. The category four cyclone is expected to turn northwest in the next few days and move very close to the Hawaiian Islands late this week. Even if the islands escape a direct landfall, expect heavy rains, winds, and waves to slam particularly the south coasts.

Lane is moving south of a large ridge over the central Pacific. This ridge will shift a bit further east this week, allowing Lane to turn northwest. By the end of the week, Lane will be just south of the Hawaiian Islands. Some models actually bring the storm through the islands near Honolulu. Others keep it to the southwest, turning it further west by the weekend. Much uncertainty exists about the future track of Lane and interests in Hawaii should pay very close attention.

The environment is favorable for Lane to maintain intensity through the next few days. As the storm turns northwest, sea surface temperatures will decrease as upper level wind shear increases. This combination should cause Lane to weaken fairly quickly late in the week. However, Lane could still threaten the Hawaiian Islands with flooding rain, gusty winds, and high surf. These hazards will be more likely on the south sides of the islands.