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Powerful Jebi Targets Japan Next Week

Written by Meteo Expert Josef Lukas

Jebi is a powerful cyclone spinning across the West Pacific, and the storm will track steadily northward toward Japan by early next week.

 

Jebi reached Super Typhoon status late this past week, meaning that sustained winds are greater than or equal to 130 knots. Ideal environmental conditions of warm sea-surface temperatures and light wind shear will keep Jebi quite powerful into the first part of next week.

Weather models are fairly consistent in tracking Jebi toward the north over the next few days. Steering winds are expected to take the cyclone into Japan on Tuesday and then into southeast Russia on Thursday.

Impacts to Japan from Jebi could include damaging winds, flooding rain, and a significant storm surge near the area Jebi makes landfall. Major Japanese cities such as Osaka and Tokyo will likely experience some adverse impacts from the cyclone.

Confidence in more specific details regarding impacts to Japan will become clearer this weekend as Jebi inches closer to the island nation.

Tropical Atlantic Basin May Heat Up Soon!

Written by Team Morecast

 

It’s been a quiet couple of months over the tropical Atlantic basin. Only two tropical storms have formed over the basin in August, both harmless short-lived cyclones over the open ocean. Indeed, this quiet period has lead to forecasters rolling back the expectations for the remainder of the season. However, there are indications that tropical activity could ramp up as we move towards the traditional peak of hurricane season in early September.

 

 

Thunderstorm activity is building over the Sahel, the region of central Africa that is a breeding ground for Atlantic hurricanes. Although not every storm wave that rolls off the African coast is destined to be a hurricane, conditions are becoming more favorable for development in the next week or so. Models suggest the wave currently approaching the coast will eventually become better organized over the open Atlantic. Other waves nearby are potential candidates as well.

This increasing activity means the odds are better that named storms will form in the next few weeks. That doesn’t mean there’s any immediate threat to the U.S. mainland, but we’ll be monitoring.

UPDATE: Hilo Submerged as Hurricane Lane Draws Closer!

Written by Team Morecast

 

Hurricane Lane has weakened further today but remains a dangerous category three hurricane with sustained winds of 130 mph (kph). Outer rain bands have been producing torrential rainfall especially over the Big Island since last night. Rivers have risen well past flood levels, submerging much of the city of Hilo.

 

 

Rainfall totals have exceeded a foot over parts of the Big Island (see table above), including the city of Hilo. Even in a tropical environment, it’s too much rain for the soil and water system to handle. Combine that with elevated tides and surf due to the approaching hurricane and you have a recipe for widespread flooding (see tweets below). Additional rainfall in excess of a foot is likely, leading to additional severe flooding. Mudslides will be a common threat as well.

 

 

 

 

 

The latest model guidance brings the system further north than previously indicated. Although a turn to the west is still anticipated, the potential for a landfall has increased. The center of the storm could move very close to Honolulu by Friday night into Saturday. Eventually the storm should move west and by early next week, Lane will be moving into the open Pacific.

 

 

Lane is being hit by strong southwesterly shear, disrupting the circulation. Additional steady weakening is expected over the next few days. However, Lane could still be a hurricane as it closes in on the central Hawaiian Islands like O’ahu and Moloka’i. That means in addition to the ongoing flooding rains, high winds and storm surge will be increasing dangers. Wind gusts of 70-90 mph (110-140 kph) will lead to trees and roofs coming down with widespread power outages. A storm surge as much as 4-5 feet will inundate prone coastal areas.

UPDATE: Lane Still a Major Hurricane As it Approaches Hawaii!

Written by Team Morecast

 

Hurricane Lane remains a powerful category four storm with sustained winds up to 150 mph (240 kph). Lane briefly reached category five status this morning, but has since weakened a bit. However, the storm remains a major threat to the Hawaiian Islands in the next several days. Outer rain bands are already moving over the Big Island:

 

 

Lane had been moving west-northwestward for the past few days but has begun to turn more northwesterly. The cyclone will move generally north-northwest on Thursday before a gradual turn to the west on Friday. Where and when this turn occurs will determine whether the islands get a direct hit or a significant but glancing blow. The latest model guidance indicates the turn will occur soon enough to avoid a direct landfall. However, a slim possibility still exists for a northward track that would bring more severe impacts.

 

 

Lane has probably peaked in intensity. The circulation will be moving over cooler waters in the next few days, causing further gradual weakening. The storm will pass close enough to spell some significant impacts for the Hawaiian Islands, though. The south and west sides of the islands are in for the worst weather. Likely hazards include:

  • Torrential, flooding rainfall and mudslides. Widespread amounts of 6-12 inches (150-300 mm), locally 24 inches (600 mm) on the south-facing mountain slopes.
  • Damaging wind gusts. Up to 70-80 mph (110-130 kph) in spots along the coast leading to trees down and long-lasting power outages. Major cities like Honolulu and Hilo likely to see gusts 50-60 mph (80-100 kph). A few tornadoes could produce locally enhanced winds as well.
  • Storm surge locally as much as 3-4 feet in prone locations.