Category: Posts EN

UPDATE: Lane Gains Strength, Hawaii Landfall Looking More Likely!

Written by Team Morecast

 

Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a very healthy looking Hurricane Lane churning south-southeast of Hawaii. Sustained winds have increased to 155 mph, almost to the category five threshold. To make matters worse, model guidance today has shifted the future track to the north and east. Only three hurricanes have moved directly over the islands since reliable record-keeping began. However, major impacts, possibly even a direct landfall, look much more likely for the islands later this week.

 

 

Hurricane watches have been posted by the National Hurricane Center for the islands south of Oahu. Additional watches and warnings are likely in the next few days. Lane is moving west-northwest but is expected to turn more northwest on Wednesday. By Thursday into Friday, the hurricane will be nearing the main Hawaiian Islands, including Maui and the Big Island. Eventually the cyclone will turn more to the west, but it’s not clear whether this turn will take place before or after passing through the islands.

Lane intensified significantly last night into earlier today. It is unlikely that much more intensification will occur. Slow weakening is more probable as the system moves into cooler waters. However, even if a gradual weakening trend does occur, Lane will still be a powerful cyclone. Flooding rains, damaging winds, and a significant storm surge are likely even if the storm remains slightly offshore. Obviously a direct landfall would mean more severe impacts.

Severe Flooding Hammers Southern India as Monsoon Ends

Written by Team Morecast

 

Torrential rainfall in the month of August has led to deadly flooding in the southern Indian state of Kerala. Although the region is usually prepared for heavy monsoon rains, more than twice the normal amounts have fallen, leading to dam failures and rampaging rivers. Hundreds have lost their lives to flooding since the monsoon began in early June.

 

 

The table above shows select rainfall totals from the heavy rain event of 15-17 August. Numerous sites reported greater than 400 mm of rain, topped by the station at Peermade To that saw 810 mm! It’s only the latest in weeks of above-normal rainfall. The Kerala state overall has seen 164% of normal rainfall for August, the highest totals in decades. Deforestation and urbanization have exacerbated the flooding. Tens of thousands have been flooded out of their homes, and more than 300 have lost their lives. Fortunately, the heavy rainfall has ended for the most part. Lead image courtesy Wikipedia contributer Destination8infinity.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hurricane Lane to Brush Hawaiian Islands Later This Week!

Written by Team Morecast

 

Major Hurricane Lane is moving steadily west across the open Pacific. The category four cyclone is expected to turn northwest in the next few days and move very close to the Hawaiian Islands late this week. Even if the islands escape a direct landfall, expect heavy rains, winds, and waves to slam particularly the south coasts.

Lane is moving south of a large ridge over the central Pacific. This ridge will shift a bit further east this week, allowing Lane to turn northwest. By the end of the week, Lane will be just south of the Hawaiian Islands. Some models actually bring the storm through the islands near Honolulu. Others keep it to the southwest, turning it further west by the weekend. Much uncertainty exists about the future track of Lane and interests in Hawaii should pay very close attention.

 

 

The environment is favorable for Lane to maintain intensity through the next few days. As the storm turns northwest, sea surface temperatures will decrease as upper level wind shear increases. This combination should cause Lane to weaken fairly quickly late in the week. However, Lane could still threaten the Hawaiian Islands with flooding rain, gusty winds, and high surf. These hazards will be more likely on the south sides of the islands.

Double Typhoon Threat for East Asia This Week!

Written by Team Morecast

 

Two strong cyclones are churning through the western Pacific today. Typhoon Soulik and Typhoon Cimaron will be headline-making storms in Korea and Japan later this week.

 

 

Soulik has weakened a bit since yesterday, but still boasts sustained winds up to 175 kph. It continues to move west-northwest over warm ocean waters. Soulik will maintain about the same intensity as it moves just south of the island of Kyushu by the middle of the week. A larger trough approaching from the west will turn the cyclone north towards southern South Korea. Landfall will likely occur late Wednesday into Thursday. After that, Soulik will travel up the spine of the Korean peninsula. Heavy, flooding rains will be the widespread threat, especially where terrain enhances runoff. Damaging winds and a moderate storm surge will also be threats along the south coast.

 

 

Cimaron was just upgraded to typhoon intensity. Steady intensification will continue over the next few days as it moves northwest. By Wednesday, Cimaron could be passing over the same area of ocean now under Soulik’s circulation. Cooler water churned up by Soulik could mean a less favorable environment for Cimaron, capping the potential strength as it approaches southern Japan. However, Cimaron could still have dangerous impacts to some of Japan’s major population centers like Osaka and Nagoya. High winds and flooding rainfall are likely near the track. Lead photo by Airman 1st Class John Linzmeier, USAF.