Category: Posts EN

Latest Forecasts Call for a Quieter 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Written by Team Morecast

 

The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season started out on a busy note. Even as the last pre-season forecasts were being released, Subtropical Storm Alberto ripped from the Yucatan Peninsula to the Florida panhandle, causing close to $125 million in damage. July saw two hurricanes form over the open Atlantic, although neither threatened land at peak strength.

 

 

However, since mid-July there’s only been one named storm, Debby, that quietly looped over the northern Atlantic this week before dissipating. The near to above-normal activity initially forecast in the spring has been slow to develop. The building El Niño expected to come into being this fall is partly to blame. The graphic below is taken from NOAA’s latest ENSO forecast report with temperature anomalies approaching the +1.0 deg C threshold for El Niño conditions in the next six months. Sea surface temperatures in the prime development area off the coast of western Africa have also been cooler than normal.

 

 

As we move through the rest of August into early September, we’ll be approaching the typical peak of hurricane activity. The ongoing quiet spell won’t last forever. However, the latest forecast calls for seasonal totals near to below normal (see graphic below).

 

Worst Drought in Decades Afflicting New South Wales, Australia

Written by Team Morecast

 

Above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation have combined to create dangerous drought conditions across the entire state of New South Wales. Officials have been forced to resort to emergency measures to help farmers try to rescue parched crops and livestock.

 

 

 

Sydney is among many locations in NSW that have seen little rainfall over the past few months (see table and graphic above). Persistent upper level ridging has forced winter storm systems to the south. Locations in coastal NSW that ordinarily see upwards of 100 mm of rainfall from July into early August have seen a tiny fraction of that. The dry spell actually stretches back through the entire year. It’s only becoming more acute in the recent winter months. Currently, the entire state is under a drought. A significant portion is suffering from intense drought conditions (see graphic below from the Department of Primary Industries). Unfortunately, the forecast outlook doesn’t hold much hope for a quick recovery.

 

 

That’s very bad news for farmers and other residents of the state that depend on regular rainfall for their livelihoods. Officials have responded by easing restrictions on the hunting of kangaroos that compete with livestock for scarce food and water sources. The national government has also created an aid package of $190 million. Farmers can apply for funds of $12 to 16 thousand each to help make ends meet in these difficult months. Lead photo courtesy Wikipedia contributor VirtualSteve.

 

“Fujiwhara” Phenomena Possible In East Pacific This Weekend

Written by Meteo Expert Josef Lukas

Two cyclones spinning in the open waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean will have an opportunity to undergo an interesting meteorological phenomena this weekend known as the “Fujiwhara effect”.

The Fujiwhara effect occurs when two nearby low pressure circulations get closer together and then merge into one circulation. This interaction was first described by Japanese meteorologist Sakuhei Fujiwhara.

Hurricane John and Tropical Storm Kristy will gradually move closer to each other through the end of this week. Over the weekend the two circulation could get close enough to achieve the Fujiwhara effect.

The animation above represents a model solution for John and Kristy which shows the Fujiwhara effect between the two cyclones. John is modeled to have a larger circulation than Kristy, so John’s circulation would most likely absorb Kristy’s smaller circulation.

Neither system will be a threat to land, and the surviving circulation will most likely lose tropical characteristics by later next week.

Typhoon Shanshan To Track Toward Japan

Written by Meteo Expert Josef Lukas

Shanshan will move dangerously close to Japan Wednesday night and Thursday threatening parts of the country with wind, rain, and high surf through Friday.

The Details

Recent satellite imagery from the West Pacific shows Shanshan tracking to the northwest closer to Japan. However, the typhoon is rather small which means the worst wind and rain impacts will be confined close to Shanshan’s center.

As Shanshan approaches mainland Japan, the cyclone will get steered toward the north and then northeast. The center of Shanshan will get very close to land as it skirts by just east of Tokyo. This track will bring some wind, rain, and coastal flooding impacts to Japan, although the worst impacts are likely to remain just offshore.

Shanshan’s expected track will bring it close enough to bring Tokyo some strong winds and rain. Damaging winds and flooding are more likely east of Tokyo along the coast of the Kantō Prefecture.

Rain Impact Map

Wind Impact Map

Since Shanshan is still several days away from Japan, the track and associated impacts are subject to some changes through the early part of the week.