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Many Mid-Atlantic Cities Set To Have Wettest Summer On Record

Written by Meteo Expert Josef Lukas

Residents across the Mid-Atlantic have experienced day after day of tropical downpours in recent weeks setting the stage for many locations to have their wettest summer on record.

Across Pennsylvania, Maryland, and northern Virginia there are 10 locations experiencing their wettest summer on record. The data is based on meteorological summer which covers the months of June, July, and August.

Looking back to mid May, many locations in the Mid-Atlantic have seen 20-30 inches (~500-760 mm) in a 90-day period. Several rain events this summer have lead to moderate and even major flooding problems for some communities.

The copious amounts of rain since mid-May have lead to rainfall departures of 8-16 inches (200-400 mm) in a 90-day period.

Strongest Winds of the Australian Winter Target Tasmania Late Tuesday into Wednesday!

Written by Team Morecast

 

Spring isn’t far away down under, but winter has at least one more punch saved up for the southeast, especially Tasmania. The strongest winds of the season, accompanied by locally heavy rains and mountain snows, will affect the island Tuesday into Wednesday.

 

 

The rocky island of Tasmania is accustomed to gusty winds, especially during the winter months. The table above shows the max wind gusts from the season so far. The mountain peaks and exposed islands and peninsulas see peak wind gusts exceeding 100 kph on more days than not. However, gusts greater than 130-140 kph are rare. The next system to move across the Bight will be as highly energetic in the upper levels as any we’ve seen this winter. That will translate down to the surface as destructive winds, potentially the strongest of the season for many areas.

 

 

Gusts of at least 80-110 kph will be widespread, including the major population centers like Hobart and Launceston. Most of the coastal areas and higher terrain will see gusts of 100-120 kph. Known wind prone areas like Maatsuyker Island and Mt. Wellington could see gusts approach 150 kph! Strong winds will also affect portions of South Australia, Victoria, and New South Wales.

The danger from snow and rain will be relatively localized. However, totals amounts exceeding 100 mm in the western mountains will lead to some localized flooding. In addition, rain-weakened soils will be more likely to lead to trees coming down in high winds. Wind-driven snow will also be a visibility hazard at the highest peaks.

Blistering Heat Subsides in the Northwest, but Drought Still Worsening

Written by Team Morecast

 

Record-breaking heat that was scorching the Pacific Northwest last week has shifted a bit to the east. The observation at West Glacier, Montana saw 100° F (38° C) heat for the first time on record on Sunday! Meanwhile, highs in Washington and Oregon stayed in the 80s instead of the 90s and 100s of a few days ago. However, the long-term dry spell continues with no substantial relief in sight.

 

 

The table above shows rainfall since July 1st as well as departures from normal temperatures for select cities in the Pacific Northwest. The map below shows the percentage of normal rainfall the region has received. A majority of interior Washington and western Oregon are around 10% or less of normal precipitation in the past 60 days. The picture of much drier-than-normal conditions is clear.

 

 

Further down, you can see the map of drought expansion over the past two months. From mostly drought-free in mid-May, currently almost the entire region is in a moderate to severe drought. The lack of rainfall has taken a major toll. Livestock production is reported much diminished over important grazing lands in interior Oregon, for instance. The region-wide presence of wildfire smoke and haze is adding to the unhealthy conditions.

 

 

Unfortunately, the mid-range prospects for significant rainfall are not promising. A ridge will remain anchored in place for the next few weeks. The outlooks at bottom reflect the expectation for continued hot (left map) and dry (right) weather into early September.

 

 

Wet Sunday Could Bring Some Relief to Parched Central Texas

Written by Team Morecast

 

Weeks to months of below-normal precipitation have lead to dangerous drought conditions over the Southern Plains. Some areas have entered the “exceptional drought” stage, the most severe category. Fortunately, a combination of Gulf moisture and a stationary upper level trough will mean a good chance for heavy rain across the region on Sunday. While that’s potentially good news for farmers looking to rescue suffering crops and livestock, few will welcome the localized flooding that could occur.

 

 

The last few months have been exceptionally dry across Texas (see graphic above from the Climate Prediction Center). One result has been a dramatic increase in land officially designated as drought-stricken (see graphic below). More than 70% of the territory in the US Drought Monitor’s South region is now in drought category, compared to 38% in early May. The worsening drought has prompted government officials to implement mandatory water restrictions, some severe, in nearly 700 localities.

 

 

The forecast for Sunday offers some hope for at least temporary relief, even as far north as the Dallas metro. A nearly stationary upper-level trough is in place over the interior Plains. Meanwhile, surface wind trajectories are moving Gulf moisture northwest into the drought region. The combination will bring slow-moving showers and storms through much of Sunday. Most of the area will see 1-2 inch (mm) rainfall amounts with localized amounts of 3-5 inches (mm) likely. Unfortunately, rainfall rates will be briefly heavy, resulting in localized flooding.