Category: Posts EN

 

Florence made landfall this morning as a strong category one hurricane at Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, on the eastern side of the city of Wilmington. Florence has been downgraded to a tropical storm as of the 5 pm advisory from the National Hurricane Center. It’s at the top end of the tropical storm threshold, though, with sustained winds still to 70 mph in some bands. Damaging winds will remain a threat from southern NC into eastern SC. Tremendously heavy rainfall and freshwater flooding will be the most serious and widespread danger going forward, however.

 

 

High winds have lead to widespread power outages over the eastern Carolinas with almost a million reported in the dark. Winds have been gusting upwards of 100 mph in spots (see table above). Although the intensity of winds will gradually diminish as the storm weakens, rain-weakened soils and the long duration of high winds will continue to lead to downed trees and powerlines. In some areas these power outages will last for weeks.

Reports indicate that 12-20 inches of rain have already fallen over portions of coastal North Carolina. The video below is taken from a house near the Pungo River early this morning with the corresponding river gauge data shown below that. The high water shown is probably a combination of the freshwater flooding of the river and storm surge from the nearby ocean. This kind of inundation will become more widespread as rivers rise in response to the copious rainfall.

 

CRAZY FLOODING. #HurricaneFlorence making a mess for families in its path. This is the #Pungo River in Belhaven, North Carolina. #Florence #Hurricane (📸 Amy Johnson) #flooding #NC pic.twitter.com/bXlrYlwYtN

— Josh Benson (@WFLAJosh) September 14, 2018

 

 

Florence will continue to crawl westward overnight and through much of Saturday, reaching the Midlands of South Carolina by Saturday night. It’ll be Sunday before the remnants of Florence start to turn north through the Appalachians and pick up speed. That means many hours of persistent, torrential rainfall rates near and northeast of the center. Some areas will see storm totals of 3 feet or more! Many rivers will exceed major flood stages and set new record marks. This is a potentially deadly situation with many homes and businesses likely to be under water in the coming days!

 

 

 

 

 

Hurricane Florence is approaching the south coast of North Carolina. Rain bands have been rotating onshore since this morning and conditions have really been deteriorating this afternoon into the evening. Wind gusts of 80-100 mph have been reported. Atlantic Beach has also measured more than 12″ of rain so far. Unfortunately, the storm is slowing down to a crawl. Torrential rain is going to continue for the better part of two days, spreading into South Carolina late tonight into Friday.

 

 

Sustained winds in Florence’s eyewall are now 100 mph, making it a category two storm. However, the storm is significantly larger than it was a day or two ago. Storm surge has inundated a long stretch of the Carolina coast. Unfortunately, the slow movement of the storm will mean several cycles of surge-magnified high tide. The next high tide is coming around midnight in southern North Carolina, then another early Friday afternoon.

As mentioned above, rainfall amounts of 4-8 inches, locally higher, have already fallen over the southern Outer Banks and adjacent mainland North Carolina. Florence will take its sweet time moving west, then west-southwest, and won’t reach South Carolina until Friday night. Although the storm will steadily weaken over that time frame with a diminishing wind threat, torrential rain will continue to fall. Rain amounts of 12-24 inches will be common from southeast North Carolina to eastern South Carolina. Some areas will finish with 30 inches or higher! This record-threatening rainfall will cause widespread flash flooding followed by river flooding that will inundate homes and businesses across the region.

 

 

Hurricane Florence has continued to move steadily northwest today. Although the storm has weakened slightly, it remains a large and powerful category three cyclone. The outermost bands are already starting to impact the Carolina coast. Conditions will deteriorate quickly on Thursday. If you haven’t left yet and you live near the coast of North Carolina or northern South Carolina, do so now!

 

 

As of this evening, Florence is producing sustained winds to 120 mph, down a bit from yesterday and earlier today, but still a major hurricane. With the change in track forecast, a larger area of eastern South Carolina may be subjected to hurricane-force winds. Additionally, Florence is getting larger. That means even if the core intensity decreases slightly, a larger area will be impacted by damaging winds. It also means the potential storm surge remains just as high, since storm surge height is a function of both cyclone intensity and size. Some locations will see a storm surge exceeding 10 feet!

 

 

 

Florence is now expected to slow down drastically as it approaches the coast early Friday, turning west or southwest. By Saturday the cyclone will be drifting on or near the coast of southern NC or northern SC. Interaction with land and cooling ocean water will mean gradual weakening. However, this large, energetic storm will take a long time to spin down. As it does, it will be producing many hours of torrential rainfall. Parts of southern North Carolina and eastern South Carolina will see easily 1-2 feet of rain. Some spots will see up to 3 feet! This widespread, copious rainfall will lead to catastrophic flooding the likes of which has rarely if ever been seen in this region. Widespread flash flooding will occur, followed by record river flooding which will inundate and destroy homes and businesses over a wide area.