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Lake Effect Snow Buries Parts of Upstate New York!

Written by Team Morecast

 

A blinding lake effect snow band has paralyzed communities just south of Buffalo, NY. The band developed on Thursday evening and has been dumping snowfall at rates of 3-5 inches per hour (7-10 cm/hr) ever since. Other than slight wobbles, it has been almost stationary in the past 18-24 hours. The result is accumulations exceeding five feet in some areas with heavy snow still falling (see pictures and videos below).

 

 

 

Lake effect snow occurs when very cold air passes over a relatively warm body of water. The band picks up moisture from the lake surface and deposits it onshore in the form of heavy snow. It tends to be very localized but is highly unstable, even to the point of producing lightning (see satellite imagery below). As long as the wind direction remains constant, the band is stationary, meaning the same locations receive prodigious snow totals. In this case, persistent westerly winds passing over Lake Erie are yielding a stubborn band of snow just south of Buffalo. Amazingly, locations just north or south of the band have received only a few inches (<10 cm). The video below shows how sharp the delineation is at the edge of the snow band.

 

 

 

Models suggest the current snow band will weaken overnight into early Saturday. However, severe disruptions will persist well beyond. Both college and professional football teams in the Buffalo area have cancelled or relocated their games this weekend (see video below showing the current state of the Buffalo Bills stadium). Roads are closed and a state of emergency has been declared in the affected region. Lead photo courtesy Ave Maria Moistlik.

 

Major Hurricane Ian Lashes Florida Peninsula with Devastating Flooding and Winds!

Written by Team Morecast

 

After ravaging western Cuba and the Florida Keys late Monday into Tuesday, Hurricane Ian rapidly intensified early Wednesday. Ian reached high-end Category Four status with sustained winds to 155 mph (250 kph) before making landfall at Cayo Costa, Florida. Social media reports confirm widespread and serious damage around the Naples – Fort Myers – Port Charlotte region.

 

 

 

The large size and intensifying nature of the hurricane increased the surge flood potential as Ian approached landfall Wednesday afternoon. Both Fort Myers and Naples reported their highest surge flooding levels on record, up to 12 feet (3.7 m) in spots. A large swath of central Florida is seeing copious rainfall, up to 20 inches (500 mm) already to this point. This will lead to serious freshwater flooding issues in the next few days. Destructive winds have also leveled trees and powerlines across the area. A weather station in Port Charlotte reported a wind gust to 132 mph (212 kph). More than two million Floridians are without power as of Wednesday evening.

 

 

Hurricane Ian has weakened to Category One status as of Wednesday night but will continue to bring strong winds and flooding to Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas in the next few days. Meanwhile, cleanup efforts will begin in earnest over the landfall zone on Thursday. A full recovery will take weeks if not months. Lead photo courtesy Scott Pena.

Deadly Hurricane Ian Heads Towards Florida

Written by Team Morecast

Hurricane Ian, the ninth storm of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, is now on a collision course with the central-west coast of Florida. Ian made landfall early on Tuesday morning in the Pinar Del Rio province of western Cuba. The storm roared ashore with winds of 125 mph (201 kph), which toppled power lines and damaged many homes. These winds are also responsible for delivering substantial damage to the heavily prized tobacco crops. The entire nation, or 11 million people, are currently without power in the wake of the storm, as the storm has caused the ailing power grid to fail. Ian is responsible for two deaths across the island so far.

Upon remerging in the Gulf of Mexico after departing Cuba, Ian has now explosively grown into a monster Category 4 storm, packing winds of 140 mph (225 kph). It is certainly possible that further strengthening is possible as Ian churns over water that is extremely warm, ranging from 85-90 degrees F (29-32 C), before a landfall on the west-central coast of Florida later on Wednesday. 2.5 million Floridians have been put under mandatory evacuations as the storm draws near. Ian is expected to bring widespread damaging winds to a large swath of the state, as the storm slows down after landfall. This slowing down will also lead to very high amounts of rain falling. Rainfall amounts between 10-15 inches (254-381 mm), with locally higher amounts of up to 25 inches (635 mm) will cause catastrophic flooding. A storm surge of up to 12 feet (3.6 m) is also possible along the coast.

As a whole, the state of Florida is no stranger to hurricanes, receiving the majority of all landfalls in the United States, however, the central-west coast of the state has been particularly lucky in recent years. Aside from Hurricane Charley, which devastated the Punta Gorda region in 2004, the remainder of the central-west coast has dodged many bullets. Tampa, the second largest city in the state, is a prime example, having not received a direct hit from a hurricane since 1921. It is possible Ian may break that streak, or in the very least bring more damage to the area than seen in quite some time. After leaving Florida in ruins, Ian is forecasted to move northward, and bring flooding rains to Georgia and the Carolinas by the weekend.

When all is said and done, it is very probable that the name Ian will be retired from the list of Atlantic hurricane names, as damages will likely top out in the billions of dollars. If this occurs, it would be the 13th I storm to be retired, falling into the category of most devastating storms in history which include: Ivan,  Irene, and Ida. The letter I has the most retired names associated with it. This is due to it being the ninth letter on the list, which usually coincides with the peak of activity in the season.

Hurricane Fiona Rips Through The Caribbean!

Written by Team Morecast

After a very quiet start to the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, with August not having a named storm for the first time since 1997, the tropics have suddenly come alive in the last several weeks. Hurricane Fiona has become the first storm of the season to cause widespread damage. The storm formed late last week, and quickly became a tropical storm upon reaching the island of Guadeloupe, where it claimed its first victim. Fiona then emerged into the Caribbean Sea, where she became a hurricane before making her first landfall near Punta Tocon, Puerto Rico on Sunday. A second landfall occurred near Punta Cana, Dominican Republic on Monday. Fiona lashed the islands of Turks And Caicos in the Bahamas with wind gusts up to 115 kph (185 kph) for most of Tuesday.

The brunt of the storm, by far, has been felt across the island of Puerto Rico. At the height of the storm on Sunday, the entire island, inhabited by 3.2 million people, lost power. 80% of the U.S. territory remains without power as of Tuesday evening, while 70% of customers remain without potable water. Damaging wind gusts up to 113 mph (181 kph) are largely responsible for widespread power outages. However, the island’s infrastructure remains in a weakened state since Hurricane Maria pummelled the island in September of 2017, with many power plants failing to hold up during the storm.This is why Fiona, which was a Category 1 storm at landfall, is having similar effects on the island as Maria, which was a high end Category 4 storm at the time of landfall. Many homes still have blue tarps in place for roofs, 5 years post Maria.

Fiona’s winds have proven destructive, but the storm may perhaps be remembered most for the staggering amounts of rain it has produced. These rains have triggered catastrophic flooding and landslides island-wide, with over 1000 water rescues performed since Sunday. The highest rainfall totals have occurred in the southern half of the island, with Ponce, the second largest city, receiving 32 inches (812 mm). Many places have reported higher totals than during Hurricane Maria, while many places flooded during Fiona that did not flood during Maria.With a vast network of rivers and streams across the island, nearly every one of them has spilled over their banks, and many of them have reported record crests. One such example is the Guanajibo River, which crested at 29.2 feet (8.9 meters) on Monday morning, surpassing the record of 28.6 feet (8.7 meters) set during Maria. Current estimates are that damages from Fiona will amount to $10 billion across Puerto Rico.

Four additional deaths to the one in Guadeloupe have been attributed to Fiona, with two in Puerto Rico, and two in the Dominican Republic. It is possible that more may be reported in the coming days. The Dominican Republic and Turks And Caicos have sustained similar damage to that seen in Puerto Rico, although not quite as devastating. Fiona is now moving into the open Atlantic Ocean, with Bermuda and the maritime provinces of Canada in her crosshairs. The storm is likely to reach Category 4 status by Thursday.