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Hurricane Florence is approaching the south coast of North Carolina. Rain bands have been rotating onshore since this morning and conditions have really been deteriorating this afternoon into the evening. Wind gusts of 80-100 mph have been reported. Atlantic Beach has also measured more than 12″ of rain so far. Unfortunately, the storm is slowing down to a crawl. Torrential rain is going to continue for the better part of two days, spreading into South Carolina late tonight into Friday.

 

 

Sustained winds in Florence’s eyewall are now 100 mph, making it a category two storm. However, the storm is significantly larger than it was a day or two ago. Storm surge has inundated a long stretch of the Carolina coast. Unfortunately, the slow movement of the storm will mean several cycles of surge-magnified high tide. The next high tide is coming around midnight in southern North Carolina, then another early Friday afternoon.

As mentioned above, rainfall amounts of 4-8 inches, locally higher, have already fallen over the southern Outer Banks and adjacent mainland North Carolina. Florence will take its sweet time moving west, then west-southwest, and won’t reach South Carolina until Friday night. Although the storm will steadily weaken over that time frame with a diminishing wind threat, torrential rain will continue to fall. Rain amounts of 12-24 inches will be common from southeast North Carolina to eastern South Carolina. Some areas will finish with 30 inches or higher! This record-threatening rainfall will cause widespread flash flooding followed by river flooding that will inundate homes and businesses across the region.

 

 

Hurricane Florence has continued to move steadily northwest today. Although the storm has weakened slightly, it remains a large and powerful category three cyclone. The outermost bands are already starting to impact the Carolina coast. Conditions will deteriorate quickly on Thursday. If you haven’t left yet and you live near the coast of North Carolina or northern South Carolina, do so now!

 

 

As of this evening, Florence is producing sustained winds to 120 mph, down a bit from yesterday and earlier today, but still a major hurricane. With the change in track forecast, a larger area of eastern South Carolina may be subjected to hurricane-force winds. Additionally, Florence is getting larger. That means even if the core intensity decreases slightly, a larger area will be impacted by damaging winds. It also means the potential storm surge remains just as high, since storm surge height is a function of both cyclone intensity and size. Some locations will see a storm surge exceeding 10 feet!

 

 

 

Florence is now expected to slow down drastically as it approaches the coast early Friday, turning west or southwest. By Saturday the cyclone will be drifting on or near the coast of southern NC or northern SC. Interaction with land and cooling ocean water will mean gradual weakening. However, this large, energetic storm will take a long time to spin down. As it does, it will be producing many hours of torrential rainfall. Parts of southern North Carolina and eastern South Carolina will see easily 1-2 feet of rain. Some spots will see up to 3 feet! This widespread, copious rainfall will lead to catastrophic flooding the likes of which has rarely if ever been seen in this region. Widespread flash flooding will occur, followed by record river flooding which will inundate and destroy homes and businesses over a wide area.

 

Category four Hurricane Florence has continued on a steady west-northwest march today with little net change in strength. Florence is producing sustained winds to 140 mph with higher gusts. The environment ahead of the storm remains favorable for Florence to at least maintain strength. Hurricane warnings are in effect and evacuation orders have been sent for many coastal residents. The bottom line is that the Carolina coast is likely to see one of the most destructive hurricane landfalls on record by early Friday!

 

 

Florence is now located south-southwest of Bermuda, moving west-northwest at around 17 mph. This kind of motion will continue with perhaps a slight bend to the northwest on Wednesday. By late Thursday, Florence will be approaching the southeast coast. The forecast landfall point is near Wilmington in southern North Carolina. However, the Outer Banks and extreme northern South Carolina remain potential targets. A ridge over the midwest U.S. is now forecast to slow Florence down as it hits the coast. Many models suggest a slow westward drift this weekend after landfall. Although this would limit the area of destructive winds, it would greatly enhance the threat of catastrophic freshwater flooding.

 

 

Warm water and relatively weak upper level wind shear still characterize the environment in Florence’s path. However, if the storm slows down before it hits the coast, interaction with land and cooler waters churned up by the storm could weaken Florence. Still, Florence will be a very dangerous major hurricane at landfall. In addition, Florence will be increasing in size in the next few days. That will mean a larger area affected by destructive winds, flooding rains, and deadly storm surge. The surge in some areas of the North Carolina coast will exceed 10 feet! Rainfall amounts in this region will exceed a foot with some locations seeing 2-3 feet of rain! The combination of surge and freshwater flooding will be the greatest hazard to human life.

Evacuations are already well under way. If you live in a mandatory evacuation zone, it is imperative that you rush preparations to completion and leave now!