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UPDATE: Hilo Submerged as Hurricane Lane Draws Closer!

Written by Team Morecast

 

Hurricane Lane has weakened further today but remains a dangerous category three hurricane with sustained winds of 130 mph (kph). Outer rain bands have been producing torrential rainfall especially over the Big Island since last night. Rivers have risen well past flood levels, submerging much of the city of Hilo.

 

 

Rainfall totals have exceeded a foot over parts of the Big Island (see table above), including the city of Hilo. Even in a tropical environment, it’s too much rain for the soil and water system to handle. Combine that with elevated tides and surf due to the approaching hurricane and you have a recipe for widespread flooding (see tweets below). Additional rainfall in excess of a foot is likely, leading to additional severe flooding. Mudslides will be a common threat as well.

 

 

 

 

 

The latest model guidance brings the system further north than previously indicated. Although a turn to the west is still anticipated, the potential for a landfall has increased. The center of the storm could move very close to Honolulu by Friday night into Saturday. Eventually the storm should move west and by early next week, Lane will be moving into the open Pacific.

 

 

Lane is being hit by strong southwesterly shear, disrupting the circulation. Additional steady weakening is expected over the next few days. However, Lane could still be a hurricane as it closes in on the central Hawaiian Islands like O’ahu and Moloka’i. That means in addition to the ongoing flooding rains, high winds and storm surge will be increasing dangers. Wind gusts of 70-90 mph (110-140 kph) will lead to trees and roofs coming down with widespread power outages. A storm surge as much as 4-5 feet will inundate prone coastal areas.

UPDATE: Lane Still a Major Hurricane As it Approaches Hawaii!

Written by Team Morecast

 

Hurricane Lane remains a powerful category four storm with sustained winds up to 150 mph (240 kph). Lane briefly reached category five status this morning, but has since weakened a bit. However, the storm remains a major threat to the Hawaiian Islands in the next several days. Outer rain bands are already moving over the Big Island:

 

 

Lane had been moving west-northwestward for the past few days but has begun to turn more northwesterly. The cyclone will move generally north-northwest on Thursday before a gradual turn to the west on Friday. Where and when this turn occurs will determine whether the islands get a direct hit or a significant but glancing blow. The latest model guidance indicates the turn will occur soon enough to avoid a direct landfall. However, a slim possibility still exists for a northward track that would bring more severe impacts.

 

 

Lane has probably peaked in intensity. The circulation will be moving over cooler waters in the next few days, causing further gradual weakening. The storm will pass close enough to spell some significant impacts for the Hawaiian Islands, though. The south and west sides of the islands are in for the worst weather. Likely hazards include:

  • Torrential, flooding rainfall and mudslides. Widespread amounts of 6-12 inches (150-300 mm), locally 24 inches (600 mm) on the south-facing mountain slopes.
  • Damaging wind gusts. Up to 70-80 mph (110-130 kph) in spots along the coast leading to trees down and long-lasting power outages. Major cities like Honolulu and Hilo likely to see gusts 50-60 mph (80-100 kph). A few tornadoes could produce locally enhanced winds as well.
  • Storm surge locally as much as 3-4 feet in prone locations.

UPDATE: Lane Gains Strength, Hawaii Landfall Looking More Likely!

Written by Team Morecast

 

Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a very healthy looking Hurricane Lane churning south-southeast of Hawaii. Sustained winds have increased to 155 mph, almost to the category five threshold. To make matters worse, model guidance today has shifted the future track to the north and east. Only three hurricanes have moved directly over the islands since reliable record-keeping began. However, major impacts, possibly even a direct landfall, look much more likely for the islands later this week.

 

 

Hurricane watches have been posted by the National Hurricane Center for the islands south of Oahu. Additional watches and warnings are likely in the next few days. Lane is moving west-northwest but is expected to turn more northwest on Wednesday. By Thursday into Friday, the hurricane will be nearing the main Hawaiian Islands, including Maui and the Big Island. Eventually the cyclone will turn more to the west, but it’s not clear whether this turn will take place before or after passing through the islands.

Lane intensified significantly last night into earlier today. It is unlikely that much more intensification will occur. Slow weakening is more probable as the system moves into cooler waters. However, even if a gradual weakening trend does occur, Lane will still be a powerful cyclone. Flooding rains, damaging winds, and a significant storm surge are likely even if the storm remains slightly offshore. Obviously a direct landfall would mean more severe impacts.

Severe Flooding Hammers Southern India as Monsoon Ends

Written by Team Morecast

 

Torrential rainfall in the month of August has led to deadly flooding in the southern Indian state of Kerala. Although the region is usually prepared for heavy monsoon rains, more than twice the normal amounts have fallen, leading to dam failures and rampaging rivers. Hundreds have lost their lives to flooding since the monsoon began in early June.

 

 

The table above shows select rainfall totals from the heavy rain event of 15-17 August. Numerous sites reported greater than 400 mm of rain, topped by the station at Peermade To that saw 810 mm! It’s only the latest in weeks of above-normal rainfall. The Kerala state overall has seen 164% of normal rainfall for August, the highest totals in decades. Deforestation and urbanization have exacerbated the flooding. Tens of thousands have been flooded out of their homes, and more than 300 have lost their lives. Fortunately, the heavy rainfall has ended for the most part. Lead image courtesy Wikipedia contributer Destination8infinity.