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Florence Now A Tropical Storm, But Increasing Threat for a U.S. Landfall!

Written by Team Morecast

 

As expected, high vertical wind shear has continued to disrupt the circulation of Florence today. Florence has been downgraded to a high-end tropical storm. However, restrengthening is expected this weekend into early next week as the cyclone moves over warmer waters. Lessening shear will contribute to the potential intensification. Even more unsettling, model guidance has continued to trend further westward with the future track. A landfall along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard, while far from guaranteed, is becoming more likely!

 

 

Florence will continue on a slow westerly heading through this weekend. Early next week, the storm should pass well south of Bermuda. A larger system will start to pull Florence toward the northwest into the middle of next week. However, indications are now that Florence may not be turned north and out to sea as was previously hoped. High pressure may build in fast enough to push Florence towards the East coast. There is the potential for a landfall anywhere from northern Florida to southern New England. However, the most likely trajectory would put the Carolinas in the bullseye late in the week into the weekend. Although it’s still too early to say with confidence where Florence will move, preliminary hurricane precautions should be taken.

 

 

The map above (courtesy of CIMSS) depicts various factors that determine a cyclone’s intensity. The shades of color indicate sea surface temperatures, while the solid lines show wind shear aloft. As you can see, Florence will be moving into a region of warmer water temperatures (orange and red shades) and decreasing shear (yellow and green lines). Many models even strengthen Florence back to major hurricane status! Well ahead of the storm, large waves and rip currents will pose a grave hazard to swimmers along the East coast this weekend and beyond. Lead photo courtesy National Park Service.

Florence Approaching Warmer Waters, Intensification Likely

Written by Team Morecast

Hurricane Florence has weakened significantly today thanks to high wind shear. The shear is expected to diminish in the next few days, however. As the storm approaches warmer waters in the western Atlantic, restrengthening is likely.

Florence has been charting a steady west-northwest course since forming a week ago near the Azores. This trajectory will likely continue over the next several days underneath a large mid-ocean ridge. By Tuesday, the storm could be near Bermuda. Most of the model guidance suggests the storm will pass far enough south of Bermuda to limit impacts on the island to some gusty winds and passing rain squalls. However, interests on Bermuda should closely monitor the storm in case a northward deviation occurs.

 

 

Later in the week, models diverge on the future track. Some bring the cyclone close to the U.S. east coast, but some curve the storm well offshore. It’s simply too early to be able to forecast with any accuracy the landfall potential. Regardless of where the storm goes, there will be some big waves and rip currents along the Eastern Seaboard starting late this weekend and persisting through next week.

 

 

Florence may weaken below hurricane status tonight or Friday. However, warmer water and lessening vertical wind shear could allow the cyclone to strengthen again (see potential intensity map above). In fact Florence may be a major hurricane again by the middle of next week! Where and when the storm curves north will determine intensity later in the week.

Powerful Jebi Targets Japan Next Week

Written by Meteo Expert Josef Lukas

Jebi is a powerful cyclone spinning across the West Pacific, and the storm will track steadily northward toward Japan by early next week.

 

Jebi reached Super Typhoon status late this past week, meaning that sustained winds are greater than or equal to 130 knots. Ideal environmental conditions of warm sea-surface temperatures and light wind shear will keep Jebi quite powerful into the first part of next week.

Weather models are fairly consistent in tracking Jebi toward the north over the next few days. Steering winds are expected to take the cyclone into Japan on Tuesday and then into southeast Russia on Thursday.

Impacts to Japan from Jebi could include damaging winds, flooding rain, and a significant storm surge near the area Jebi makes landfall. Major Japanese cities such as Osaka and Tokyo will likely experience some adverse impacts from the cyclone.

Confidence in more specific details regarding impacts to Japan will become clearer this weekend as Jebi inches closer to the island nation.

Tropical Atlantic Basin May Heat Up Soon!

Written by Team Morecast

 

It’s been a quiet couple of months over the tropical Atlantic basin. Only two tropical storms have formed over the basin in August, both harmless short-lived cyclones over the open ocean. Indeed, this quiet period has lead to forecasters rolling back the expectations for the remainder of the season. However, there are indications that tropical activity could ramp up as we move towards the traditional peak of hurricane season in early September.

 

 

Thunderstorm activity is building over the Sahel, the region of central Africa that is a breeding ground for Atlantic hurricanes. Although not every storm wave that rolls off the African coast is destined to be a hurricane, conditions are becoming more favorable for development in the next week or so. Models suggest the wave currently approaching the coast will eventually become better organized over the open Atlantic. Other waves nearby are potential candidates as well.

This increasing activity means the odds are better that named storms will form in the next few weeks. That doesn’t mean there’s any immediate threat to the U.S. mainland, but we’ll be monitoring.