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UPDATE: Michael Even Stronger, Now A Major Hurricane Aiming for the Florida Panhandle!

Written by Team Morecast

 

Hurricane Michael continued to gain strength on Tuesday. As of Tuesday evening, Michael is a major category three hurricane with sustained winds to 120 mph, one of the strongest ever Gulf hurricanes in the month of October. Michael is expected to be a very dangerous storm as it approaches landfall in the Florida panhandle by midday Wednesday!

 

 

 

Water is already rising ahead of the hurricane along the coast of Florida (see tweet above). Panama City, Florida remains the likely landfall point by mid-afternoon on Wednesday. The water ahead of Michael is warm and wind shear will remain low through landfall. If Michael maintains strength as forecast, it’ll be only the fourth major hurricane to strike the Florida panhandle since 1950.

 

 

A deadly storm surge of 9-13 feet (3-4 m) will flood the coast of the Florida panhandle on Wednesday near and east of where the eye hits land (see graphic above). Destructive wind gusts exceeding 100 mph will affect not only the coast but adjacent inland areas even into southwest Georgia. Tropical storm-force winds capable of knocking down trees and causing power outages will slam an area from Florida through southern portions of Georgia and South Carolina.

 

 

Michael is a fairly small, fast-moving cyclone, totally unlike historic Hurricane Florence in the Carolinas last month. Nonetheless, some areas will see very heavy rainfall approaching 10 inches (250 mm) in spots (see map above). Significant freshwater flooding will be a threat, especially where it combines with ocean surge flooding.

Hurricane Michael Targeting the Gulf Coast by Wednesday!

Written by Team Morecast

 

Over the weekend, tropical cyclone Michael gained strength quickly and is now a hurricane. Additional intensification is expected as it crosses the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane warnings are already in effect from coastal Alabama across the Florida panhandle. By early Wednesday, Michael could be a major hurricane approaching the Gulf Coast!

 

 

Michael is currently moving between the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. It’s only a category one storm now, but warm water and low vertical wind shear is ahead. These favorable conditions will allow further intensification. Some of the models bring it to near major (category three) hurricane status before it hits the coast. The models are also in fairly good agreement on the probable landfall point, if not the track after landfall. At this time Panama City on the western Florida panhandle looks to be ground zero. This will be the area likely to see a destructive storm surge and widespread damaging winds.

 

 

The cyclone will be moving fairly quickly, so the kind of record-setting rainfall that we saw with Florence is unlikely. However, very heavy rainfall rates will occur as the storm moves through. The heaviest storm totals of 6-12 inches (150-300 mm) will fall from the Florida panhandle into southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia. Significant flash flooding is likely in this area. Expect amounts of 3-6 inches (75-150 mm) from the southern Appalachians into much of the Carolinas with more localized flooding there.

Potential Tropical Trouble Brewing in the Gulf of Mexico Next Week

Written by Team Morecast

 

An area of tropical low pressure is drifting into the western Caribbean tonight. It’s disorganized for now, but conditions will become favorable for development as it moves towards the Gulf of Mexico. By early next week, all of the models indicate the strong potential for a tropical storm in the central Gulf.

 

 

We’re entering the latter part of the Atlantic tropical cyclone season. Tropical development tends to occur more frequently in the Gulf late in the season because water temperatures remain warm deep into the autumn. Indeed, water temperatures are currently in the upper 20s to near 30 deg C over much of the Gulf, especially the central and northern Gulf (see map above). That’s plenty warm enough to support an intensifying cyclone.

 

 

Upper level conditions will be neutral for development as opposed to either favorable or unfavorable. That could put an upper limit on the potential cyclone’s peak intensity. Still, some of our most reliable models suggest that a tropical storm at least could be threatening the northern Gulf coast by the middle of next week. At this early stage we certainly can’t rule out the chance of a hurricane, either. The ultimate landfall point also remains up in the air. Some models take the storm west towards coastal Louisiana, while some curl the storm into the Florida panhandle. Interests anywhere from Houston to Tampa should pay close attention to this situation.

UPDATE: Kong-Rey Much Weaker, Still a Major Flood Threat for Korea!

Written by Team Morecast

 

A few days ago, Kong-Rey was a powerful super typhoon. Much cooler ocean waters have robbed the cyclone of its energy source. Kong-Rey has been downgraded to a tropical storm with sustained winds to 60 knots (kph). However, the storm will still produce torrential rains over the Korean peninsula with flooding likely.

 

 

Rain bands have already spread across South Korea as Kong-Rey interacts with a trough over southeast Asia. These rains will gradually intensify with some gusty winds likely as well on Saturday. The cyclone will pick up speed and clear the peninsula by Sunday afternoon. Rainfall amounts of at least 75-150 mm (3-6 inches) will be common over much of the peninsula. Eastern portions will see heavier amounts of 150-300 mm (6-12 inches). Locally heavier amounts are likely along the east and southeast-facing slopes where terrain enhances rates. Flash flooding will be a widespread threat late Saturday through Sunday morning. Mudslides will hamper travel through the mountains. Power outages will occur where rain-weakened soils and gusty winds lead to downed trees.