Category: Posts EN

 

Powerful Super Typhoon Kong-Rey is a category four cyclone today east of Taiwan with sustained winds up to 120 mph (195 kph). Like several other storms this season, Kong-Rey will be moving through the Ryukyu Islands in the next day. The next target looks to be either southern Japan or the Korean Peninsula. Model guidance generally suggests Korea is more likely this weekend.

 

 

Kong-Rey is moving into an area of cooler sea surface temperatures. Although it’s a well-organized cyclone, the cooler waters will cause weakening over the next few days. However, it will still be a major weather maker for South Korea and Japan. The latest model guidance is in good agreement about a track that would clip the southern tip of the Korean Peninsula later Saturday through Sunday morning.

 

 

The heaviest rains and damaging winds would likely impact South Korea in this scenario. Kong-Rey will be picking up speed, but will still drop upwards of 12 inches (300 mm) of rain near and north of the cyclone’s path. Locally heavier amounts could fall in the mountains, leading to serious flash flooding and mudslides! A dangerous storm surge could also impact the south coast of Korea, depending on the exact track.

 

Typhoon Trami is beginning to move more quickly to the north and northeast today. It’ll be raking the Ryukyu Islands through tonight, but the Japanese home islands are next in the crosshairs. Heavy rains have already spread across much of Japan well ahead of the cyclone (see radar image below). Flooding, damaging winds, and a significant storm surge will accompany this ferocious storm over the weekend.

 

 

Trami is moving more quickly today. A turn to the northeast is expected later today, bringing Trami into or near southern Japan starting Sunday morning. Acceleration will continue with Trami already exiting the home islands by midday Monday. Pockets of heavy rain have broken out well ahead of the cyclone, however. Winds and waves will be on the increase through Sunday as well. Gusts along the southern coast of Japan will likely approach 85 mph (150 kph) as the cyclone passes through.

 

 

Much of the home islands will see rainfall exceeding three inches (75 mm). Central and southwest sections will see 6-12 inches (150-300 mm), with parts of eastern Kyushu and Shikoku seeing amounts exceeding 12 inches (300 mm). Significant flash flooding will be the result, especially where mountainous terrain enhances runoff. Dangerous mudslides will also occur.

 

Hurricane Rosa underwent rapid intensification early today and is now a category four cyclone. Rosa is moving slowly west and will encounter much cooler sea surface temperatures in the next few days (see map below), so weakening is likely. However, Rosa will also be speeding up and turning north, then northeast. Rosa will threaten portions of northwest Mexico and the American Southwest later this weekend into early next week.

 

 

Most of the models suggest Rosa will make an initial landfall along the northern Baja Californian coast. By then, Rosa will have weakened significantly thanks to much cooler water temperatures. However, increasing forward speed may carry it fast enough into the Desert Southwest that Rosa will retain some gusty wind potential, especially in the higher terrain near and east of the track of the circulation.

 

 

The most significant hazard, however, will likely be heavy, flooding rainfall over a region unaccustomed to the kinds of amounts in the forecast. Where the rain falls will depend on the exact track of this small but powerful storm. Most models carry the storm through central Arizona. In this corridor, expect widespread amounts of 1.5-3 inches (38-75 mm) in 12 hours or less. Localized amounts of 4-5 inches (100-125 mm) are likely. That kind of rainfall will easily overwhelm the local drainage capacity. Significant flooding will be the result!