Category: Posts EN

UPDATE: Kong-Rey Much Weaker, Still a Major Flood Threat for Korea!

Written by Team Morecast

 

A few days ago, Kong-Rey was a powerful super typhoon. Much cooler ocean waters have robbed the cyclone of its energy source. Kong-Rey has been downgraded to a tropical storm with sustained winds to 60 knots (kph). However, the storm will still produce torrential rains over the Korean peninsula with flooding likely.

 

 

Rain bands have already spread across South Korea as Kong-Rey interacts with a trough over southeast Asia. These rains will gradually intensify with some gusty winds likely as well on Saturday. The cyclone will pick up speed and clear the peninsula by Sunday afternoon. Rainfall amounts of at least 75-150 mm (3-6 inches) will be common over much of the peninsula. Eastern portions will see heavier amounts of 150-300 mm (6-12 inches). Locally heavier amounts are likely along the east and southeast-facing slopes where terrain enhances rates. Flash flooding will be a widespread threat late Saturday through Sunday morning. Mudslides will hamper travel through the mountains. Power outages will occur where rain-weakened soils and gusty winds lead to downed trees.

Rainy Week Ahead for the Plains, Flooding Likely!

Written by Team Morecast

 

A cool front is sliding into the Central Plains tonight, sparking some heavy rain storms in Kansas. The front will slow down or stall completely across the Plains and linger through next week. Several disturbances will ride along the front, bringing multiple rounds of heavy rain. Localized flash flooding will occur, and river flooding could eventually become a hazard next week!

 

 

The radar animation above shows the slow-moving storms developing in Kansas tonight. These are marginally severe with some gusty winds and large hail potential. The longer-term threat, however, will be heavy rain and flooding. Areas of central and southern Kansas will see one to locally three inches of rain tonight. More rounds of heavy rain are expected Thursday night, Friday night, and then on-and-off from Saturday through early Tuesday. By the middle of next week, some areas will have tallied eight to as much as twelve inches of rainfall (see graphic below). As of now, it looks like portions of Oklahoma and Kansas are most likely to see the heaviest rainfall totals. Rainfall of this magnitude will overwhelm local drainage systems, leading to flash flooding in the near-term and rivers over their banks in the longer term. Lead photo courtesy Tech. Sgt. Jorge Intriago, US Air National Guard.

,

Super Typhoon Kong-Rey Spinning Towards South Korea This Weekend!

Written by Team Morecast

 

Powerful Super Typhoon Kong-Rey is a category four cyclone today east of Taiwan with sustained winds up to 120 mph (195 kph). Like several other storms this season, Kong-Rey will be moving through the Ryukyu Islands in the next day. The next target looks to be either southern Japan or the Korean Peninsula. Model guidance generally suggests Korea is more likely this weekend.

 

 

Kong-Rey is moving into an area of cooler sea surface temperatures. Although it’s a well-organized cyclone, the cooler waters will cause weakening over the next few days. However, it will still be a major weather maker for South Korea and Japan. The latest model guidance is in good agreement about a track that would clip the southern tip of the Korean Peninsula later Saturday through Sunday morning.

 

 

The heaviest rains and damaging winds would likely impact South Korea in this scenario. Kong-Rey will be picking up speed, but will still drop upwards of 12 inches (300 mm) of rain near and north of the cyclone’s path. Locally heavier amounts could fall in the mountains, leading to serious flash flooding and mudslides! A dangerous storm surge could also impact the south coast of Korea, depending on the exact track.

UPDATE: Heavy Rains from Rosa Spreading into the Desert Southwest!

Written by Team Morecast

 

Tropical Storm Rosa is making landfall tonight over the northern Baja California. Rosa is weakening rapidly with sustained winds less than 40 mph, barely hanging on to tropical storm status. The main threat going forward will be heavy rain falling over a desert area unaccustomed to tropical rains. Flash flooding will be a widespread hazard through the next few days!

 

 

Outer rainbands from the cyclone are already moving into southern Arizona (see radar animation above). Rosa will be moving fairly quickly through the Southwest U.S. and will be absorbed into a front over the Plains by Wednesday. However, despite the short duration, heavy rainfall rates will mean big storm totals. Some locations will see amounts up to 4-5 inches (mm), especially where south-facing terrain like the Mogollon Rim enhances rainfall rates. Serious flooding will be the result. Mudslides will be common in the hilly terrain. Lead photo courtesy Syed Wali Peeran.