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Dual Cyclones Threaten the Arabian Peninsula and India

Written by Team Morecast

 

Deadly Hurricane Michael is dominating weather headlines as it moves across the southeast U.S. However, significant cyclones are also affecting portions of the Arabian Peninsula and India. Cyclones Titli and Luban will cause major wind and flooding damage in the next several days.

 

 

Cyclone Titli intensified quickly on Thursday over the Bay of Bengal. It slammed into the Indian states of Odisha and northern Andhra Pradesh with damaging winds to 160 kph. The small cyclone will quickly weaken in terms of wind speed as it moves inland. However, it will drift slowly over eastern India through the weekend, dumping very heavy rains. Localized totals up to 250 mm will lead to spotty flash flooding.

 

 

The deserts along the south coast of the Arabian Peninsula typically see rainfall less than 100 mm in a whole year. However, Cyclone Luban will bring unusual tropical moisture into the region starting early Saturday. Luban will be weakening gradually as it approaches the coast. Wind damage will be relatively sparse and minor. However, a slow and meandering course will mean torrential rainfall from Saturday through at least Tuesday. Portions of eastern Yemen and far southeast Oman could see totals of 200-300 mm! That kind of rainfall over dry desert terrain will lead to major flash flooding and widespread mudslides.

UPDATE: Michael Slams into Florida, One of the Strongest Hurricanes Ever to Hit the U.S.

Written by Team Morecast

 

Hurricane Michael made landfall a little before 2 pm ET near Mexico Beach, Florida, just southeast of Panama City. Michael continued to intensify up until landfall, unusual for a cyclone. With sustained winds to 155 mph (250 kph) and a minimum central pressure of 919 mb, Michael was near or just below category five status. It’s one of the top five strongest hurricanes ever to hit the U.S. mainland!

 

 

 

Michael continues to move quickly northeast across central Georgia. Despite some weakening, Michael is still a hurricane with sustained winds to 85 mph (137 kph) as of the 9 pm ET update. Steady weakening will continue but Michael will still be capable of producing flooding rainfall, damaging winds, and tornadoes through Thursday before moving off the southeast coast early Friday.

 

 

Reports and gauge data indicate the storm surge probably peaked in the mid-afternoon just after landfall. The gauge at Apalachicola reached nearly 8.5 feet (2.5 m) above mean sea level around 2 pm ET. Since then the water has retreated to “only” three feet above sea level. As the storm marches inland and regular lunar tide goes out, surge flooding will continue to slowly recede.

 

 

The strongest wind gust thus far of 129 mph (208 kph) was measured at Tyndall Air Force Base. Several stations in the region have reported gusts exceeding 100 mph with many failing shortly thereafter due to the high winds. These damaging winds will continue to be a threat through the next 24-36 hours. Tropical storm warnings are posted across southern Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. Localized higher winds are likely where brief, fast-moving tornadoes spin up in the southeast quadrant of the storm. Michael is moving fast enough so that Florence-like flooding is not expected. However, localized flash flooding will occur, and rain-loosened soils will combine with the high winds to down many trees and powerlines, leading to widespread power outages.

Severe Storms To Roll Over Metro Brisbane Later Today!

Written by Team Morecast

 

Some strong storms have already been producing heavy rain and clusters of frequent lightning over Sydney metro this morning. Additional storms will develop further north later today in what’s shaping up as the season’s first big severe outbreak. Large hail, damaging winds, and flooding rains will all be threats!

 

 

Warm, humid air is in place over the region today with afternoon highs in Brisbane forecast to top 30 deg C. An upper level disturbance will spark the unstable air mass to produce severe storms by early Wednesday afternoon. Storms will fire over the interior of northern NSW and southern QLD and move quickly east. Metro Brisbane can expect to see storms by early this evening. The strongest cells in this region will produce large hail up to 5 cm in diameter, gusty winds to 100 kph or higher, and torrential rain leading to flash flooding! By mid to late evening, the storms should be weakening and/or exiting the coast.

UPDATE: Michael Even Stronger, Now A Major Hurricane Aiming for the Florida Panhandle!

Written by Team Morecast

 

Hurricane Michael continued to gain strength on Tuesday. As of Tuesday evening, Michael is a major category three hurricane with sustained winds to 120 mph, one of the strongest ever Gulf hurricanes in the month of October. Michael is expected to be a very dangerous storm as it approaches landfall in the Florida panhandle by midday Wednesday!

 

 

 

Water is already rising ahead of the hurricane along the coast of Florida (see tweet above). Panama City, Florida remains the likely landfall point by mid-afternoon on Wednesday. The water ahead of Michael is warm and wind shear will remain low through landfall. If Michael maintains strength as forecast, it’ll be only the fourth major hurricane to strike the Florida panhandle since 1950.

 

 

A deadly storm surge of 9-13 feet (3-4 m) will flood the coast of the Florida panhandle on Wednesday near and east of where the eye hits land (see graphic above). Destructive wind gusts exceeding 100 mph will affect not only the coast but adjacent inland areas even into southwest Georgia. Tropical storm-force winds capable of knocking down trees and causing power outages will slam an area from Florida through southern portions of Georgia and South Carolina.

 

 

Michael is a fairly small, fast-moving cyclone, totally unlike historic Hurricane Florence in the Carolinas last month. Nonetheless, some areas will see very heavy rainfall approaching 10 inches (250 mm) in spots (see map above). Significant freshwater flooding will be a threat, especially where it combines with ocean surge flooding.