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Flooding from Florence Will Be Worse than Hurricane Floyd in North Carolina

Written by Team Morecast

 

Nineteen years before Florence almost to the day, Hurricane Floyd lashed eastern North Carolina with damaging winds and storm surge. But the most lasting and devastating impact from Floyd was the torrential rain that lead to record-breaking river flooding. The ongoing floods from Hurricane Florence have been or will be even worse in some areas (see maps below).

 

 

 

Hurricane Floyd was a different kind of storm from Florence. It was a stronger storm, category three at landfall compared to Florence’s category one status. It was also moving much faster – the heavy rainfall totals were caused by Floyd joining forces with a storm system already in place over the East Coast. Florence, on the other hand, was working on its own but moving much more slowly. There are some striking similarities, however. The two cyclones, exactly nineteen years apart, made landfall within 25 miles of each other. And the rainfall footprint is rather similar, especially in southeast North Carolina. The magnitude of rains from Florence, although covering a somewhat smaller area of the state, is greater. Floyd held the previous state record for rainfall from a tropical cyclone at just over 24 inches. Florence shattered it with nearly 36 inches of rain recorded at Elizabethtown.

 

 

Floyd caused over three billion dollars in damages, mostly from the flooding, and cost 51 people their lives. So far Florence has tallied 25 deaths on North Carolina, but that number will probably increase. It’s too early to specify monetary damages on a state-by-state level, but some agencies are already putting Florence in the top ten of costly U.S. hurricanes. Major highways and interstates across the southeast part of the state are still closed (see red dashed lines on the map above) and will likely remain closed well into next week. Lead photo courtesy Spc. Andrea Salgado Rivera, U.S. Army.

 

 

Florence Exiting, But Cleanup from Flooding Will Take Months

Written by Team Morecast

 

The remnants of Hurricane Florence are moving through the Northeast tonight. The worst of the weather associated with the storm is over. However, devastating flooding is still ongoing as the record-shattering rainfall runs off into the larger rivers. These floodwaters will take days if not a couple of weeks to crest and then recede. Even after this occurs, the recovery from this catastrophe will take months.

 

 

 

As you can see from the graphic below, days of tropical rainfall left totals of well over 20 inches over much of southeast North Carolina. Official totals are still being tallied and verified, however it is quite likely the state record for tropical cyclone rainfall, formerly around 24 inches, was easily broken. Some areas saw 30-36 inches all told! This torrential rainfall initially led to widespread, severe flash flooding. However, as the water has drained into streams and creeks, then rivers, the focus has shifted to record-breaking river flooding.

 

 

Many of the rivers in the area are reporting major flooding, some to levels never before measured. In fact at least two rivers are not reporting accurate measurements because the water level is above the gauge! Below is an example of a gauge site unable to measure further water rises. Hundreds if not thousands of homes are underwater, and highways and interstates across the eastern half of North Carolina and far eastern South Carolina remain closed. Officials in Jones County, North Carolina, reported the entire county was underwater earlier today! That’s more than 470 square miles inundated by river flooding in that county alone.

 

 

The larger rivers in the region are only now beginning to shoulder the water-draining burden. They’ll continue to rise slowly through the week, many approaching record levels late this week or this weekend. The recession of floodwaters from these rivers won’t occur until well into next week, meaning at least two more weeks of closed highways, towns underwater, and hundreds of thousands of lives displaced. Lead photo courtesy CPO Stephen Kelly, US Coast Guard.

FRIDAY UPDATE: Florence Onshore, High Winds and Flooding Rains Will Continue!

Written by Meteo Expert Josef Lukas

 

Florence made landfall this morning as a strong category one hurricane at Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, on the eastern side of the city of Wilmington. Florence has been downgraded to a tropical storm as of the 5 pm advisory from the National Hurricane Center. It’s at the top end of the tropical storm threshold, though, with sustained winds still to 70 mph in some bands. Damaging winds will remain a threat from southern NC into eastern SC. Tremendously heavy rainfall and freshwater flooding will be the most serious and widespread danger going forward, however.

 

 

High winds have lead to widespread power outages over the eastern Carolinas with almost a million reported in the dark. Winds have been gusting upwards of 100 mph in spots (see table above). Although the intensity of winds will gradually diminish as the storm weakens, rain-weakened soils and the long duration of high winds will continue to lead to downed trees and powerlines. In some areas these power outages will last for weeks.

Reports indicate that 12-20 inches of rain have already fallen over portions of coastal North Carolina. The video below is taken from a house near the Pungo River early this morning with the corresponding river gauge data shown below that. The high water shown is probably a combination of the freshwater flooding of the river and storm surge from the nearby ocean. This kind of inundation will become more widespread as rivers rise in response to the copious rainfall.

 

 

 

Florence will continue to crawl westward overnight and through much of Saturday, reaching the Midlands of South Carolina by Saturday night. It’ll be Sunday before the remnants of Florence start to turn north through the Appalachians and pick up speed. That means many hours of persistent, torrential rainfall rates near and northeast of the center. Some areas will see storm totals of 3 feet or more! Many rivers will exceed major flood stages and set new record marks. This is a potentially deadly situation with many homes and businesses likely to be under water in the coming days!

 

 

 

 

THURSDAY UPDATE: Florence Crawling Near the North Carolina Coast!

Written by Team Morecast

 

Hurricane Florence is approaching the south coast of North Carolina. Rain bands have been rotating onshore since this morning and conditions have really been deteriorating this afternoon into the evening. Wind gusts of 80-100 mph have been reported. Atlantic Beach has also measured more than 12″ of rain so far. Unfortunately, the storm is slowing down to a crawl. Torrential rain is going to continue for the better part of two days, spreading into South Carolina late tonight into Friday.

 

 

Sustained winds in Florence’s eyewall are now 100 mph, making it a category two storm. However, the storm is significantly larger than it was a day or two ago. Storm surge has inundated a long stretch of the Carolina coast. Unfortunately, the slow movement of the storm will mean several cycles of surge-magnified high tide. The next high tide is coming around midnight in southern North Carolina, then another early Friday afternoon.

As mentioned above, rainfall amounts of 4-8 inches, locally higher, have already fallen over the southern Outer Banks and adjacent mainland North Carolina. Florence will take its sweet time moving west, then west-southwest, and won’t reach South Carolina until Friday night. Although the storm will steadily weaken over that time frame with a diminishing wind threat, torrential rain will continue to fall. Rain amounts of 12-24 inches will be common from southeast North Carolina to eastern South Carolina. Some areas will finish with 30 inches or higher! This record-threatening rainfall will cause widespread flash flooding followed by river flooding that will inundate homes and businesses across the region.