Category: Posts EN

 

Over the weekend, tropical cyclone Michael gained strength quickly and is now a hurricane. Additional intensification is expected as it crosses the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane warnings are already in effect from coastal Alabama across the Florida panhandle. By early Wednesday, Michael could be a major hurricane approaching the Gulf Coast!

 

 

Michael is currently moving between the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. It’s only a category one storm now, but warm water and low vertical wind shear is ahead. These favorable conditions will allow further intensification. Some of the models bring it to near major (category three) hurricane status before it hits the coast. The models are also in fairly good agreement on the probable landfall point, if not the track after landfall. At this time Panama City on the western Florida panhandle looks to be ground zero. This will be the area likely to see a destructive storm surge and widespread damaging winds.

 

 

The cyclone will be moving fairly quickly, so the kind of record-setting rainfall that we saw with Florence is unlikely. However, very heavy rainfall rates will occur as the storm moves through. The heaviest storm totals of 6-12 inches (150-300 mm) will fall from the Florida panhandle into southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia. Significant flash flooding is likely in this area. Expect amounts of 3-6 inches (75-150 mm) from the southern Appalachians into much of the Carolinas with more localized flooding there.

 

An area of tropical low pressure is drifting into the western Caribbean tonight. It’s disorganized for now, but conditions will become favorable for development as it moves towards the Gulf of Mexico. By early next week, all of the models indicate the strong potential for a tropical storm in the central Gulf.

 

 

We’re entering the latter part of the Atlantic tropical cyclone season. Tropical development tends to occur more frequently in the Gulf late in the season because water temperatures remain warm deep into the autumn. Indeed, water temperatures are currently in the upper 20s to near 30 deg C over much of the Gulf, especially the central and northern Gulf (see map above). That’s plenty warm enough to support an intensifying cyclone.

 

 

Upper level conditions will be neutral for development as opposed to either favorable or unfavorable. That could put an upper limit on the potential cyclone’s peak intensity. Still, some of our most reliable models suggest that a tropical storm at least could be threatening the northern Gulf coast by the middle of next week. At this early stage we certainly can’t rule out the chance of a hurricane, either. The ultimate landfall point also remains up in the air. Some models take the storm west towards coastal Louisiana, while some curl the storm into the Florida panhandle. Interests anywhere from Houston to Tampa should pay close attention to this situation.

 

A cool front is sliding into the Central Plains tonight, sparking some heavy rain storms in Kansas. The front will slow down or stall completely across the Plains and linger through next week. Several disturbances will ride along the front, bringing multiple rounds of heavy rain. Localized flash flooding will occur, and river flooding could eventually become a hazard next week!

 

 

The radar animation above shows the slow-moving storms developing in Kansas tonight. These are marginally severe with some gusty winds and large hail potential. The longer-term threat, however, will be heavy rain and flooding. Areas of central and southern Kansas will see one to locally three inches of rain tonight. More rounds of heavy rain are expected Thursday night, Friday night, and then on-and-off from Saturday through early Tuesday. By the middle of next week, some areas will have tallied eight to as much as twelve inches of rainfall (see graphic below). As of now, it looks like portions of Oklahoma and Kansas are most likely to see the heaviest rainfall totals. Rainfall of this magnitude will overwhelm local drainage systems, leading to flash flooding in the near-term and rivers over their banks in the longer term. Lead photo courtesy Tech. Sgt. Jorge Intriago, US Air National Guard.

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