Category: Posts EN

Wet Week Ahead for Texas, Flash Flooding Likely!

Written by Team Morecast

 

A strong cold front has surged south through the Southern Plains. Temperatures this evening are 30-40 degrees colder than this time 24 hours ago across much of central and southern Texas (see map below). This front will become nearly stationary over the region with waves of low pressure traveling along. The result will be periods of heavy rain through much of the work week leading to localized flooding.

 

 

 

Heavy rain has already been falling since yesterday (see map above). Some areas south of Dallas saw up to 3-5 inches, leading to significant flooding, enough to close several highways earlier today. Flooding rains have moved a bit further south for now. However, the front and the focus for heavy rainfall will shift back to the north later in the week. While the cooler air will make storms less likely, the saturated soils will make flooding likely for any moderate to heavy rain that develops. Models suggest some areas could see 5-6 inches of additional rain through the week (map below). Runoff from these heavy rains could also eventually lead to rising streams and rivers late this week into the weekend.

 

 

 

Long Road to Recovery Ahead After Michael Exits the U.S.

Written by Team Morecast

 

Former Hurricane Michael, now a strong post-tropical low, is sprinting into the North Atlantic tonight. Michael slammed into the Florida panhandle on Wednesday and rolled up the Eastern Seaboard through early Friday. Officials are now starting the arduous task of tallying the tremendous damage done by one of the strongest hurricanes ever to hit the United States.

 

 

 

 

 

Michael provides a stark contrast to history-making Hurricane Florence which devastated portions of the Carolinas almost a month ago. Florence was a powerful category four hurricane over the open Atlantic, but it weakened before making landfall. The damage caused by high winds was relatively minor. Most of Florence’s deadly impact came from torrential rain as the cyclone slowed to a crawl. Many rivers in the region crested at new record high levels, flooding thousands of homes and businesses.

 

 

Michael moved much more quickly and rainfall totals were much lower (see map above), though still sufficient to produce significant flooding. However, Michael was in the process of rapidly intensifying as it made landfall. Indeed, Michael likely would have reached category five status if it hadn’t made landfall when it did. Michael was the third-strongest hurricane on record to strike the U.S. in terms of minimum central pressure, and fourth-strongest in terms of wind speeds. Michael’s reach extended through the southeast and Mid-Atlantic, not only in terms of general strong winds but isolated tornadoes as well. The current tornado report count stands at 15, but more will likely be added as scientists survey the damage.

 

 

Wind damage where Michael’s eyewall moved through was extreme. The town of Mexico Beach was almost totally flattened. Millions of trees were snapped or uprooted from the Florida panhandle well into southwest Georgia. In fact, Michael was the first category three hurricane to move into Georgia in more than a century, despite having to go through northwest Florida to get there! Michael’s high winds persisted through the southeastern states. It’s estimated that up to a million households remain without power as of Friday evening, mostly in North Carolina. It will take weeks for some rural customers to have their power restored. Lead photo courtesy Staff Sgt. Carmen Fleischmann, Florida National Guard.

Dual Cyclones Threaten the Arabian Peninsula and India

Written by Team Morecast

 

Deadly Hurricane Michael is dominating weather headlines as it moves across the southeast U.S. However, significant cyclones are also affecting portions of the Arabian Peninsula and India. Cyclones Titli and Luban will cause major wind and flooding damage in the next several days.

 

 

Cyclone Titli intensified quickly on Thursday over the Bay of Bengal. It slammed into the Indian states of Odisha and northern Andhra Pradesh with damaging winds to 160 kph. The small cyclone will quickly weaken in terms of wind speed as it moves inland. However, it will drift slowly over eastern India through the weekend, dumping very heavy rains. Localized totals up to 250 mm will lead to spotty flash flooding.

 

 

The deserts along the south coast of the Arabian Peninsula typically see rainfall less than 100 mm in a whole year. However, Cyclone Luban will bring unusual tropical moisture into the region starting early Saturday. Luban will be weakening gradually as it approaches the coast. Wind damage will be relatively sparse and minor. However, a slow and meandering course will mean torrential rainfall from Saturday through at least Tuesday. Portions of eastern Yemen and far southeast Oman could see totals of 200-300 mm! That kind of rainfall over dry desert terrain will lead to major flash flooding and widespread mudslides.

UPDATE: Michael Slams into Florida, One of the Strongest Hurricanes Ever to Hit the U.S.

Written by Team Morecast

 

Hurricane Michael made landfall a little before 2 pm ET near Mexico Beach, Florida, just southeast of Panama City. Michael continued to intensify up until landfall, unusual for a cyclone. With sustained winds to 155 mph (250 kph) and a minimum central pressure of 919 mb, Michael was near or just below category five status. It’s one of the top five strongest hurricanes ever to hit the U.S. mainland!

 

 

 

Michael continues to move quickly northeast across central Georgia. Despite some weakening, Michael is still a hurricane with sustained winds to 85 mph (137 kph) as of the 9 pm ET update. Steady weakening will continue but Michael will still be capable of producing flooding rainfall, damaging winds, and tornadoes through Thursday before moving off the southeast coast early Friday.

 

 

Reports and gauge data indicate the storm surge probably peaked in the mid-afternoon just after landfall. The gauge at Apalachicola reached nearly 8.5 feet (2.5 m) above mean sea level around 2 pm ET. Since then the water has retreated to “only” three feet above sea level. As the storm marches inland and regular lunar tide goes out, surge flooding will continue to slowly recede.

 

 

The strongest wind gust thus far of 129 mph (208 kph) was measured at Tyndall Air Force Base. Several stations in the region have reported gusts exceeding 100 mph with many failing shortly thereafter due to the high winds. These damaging winds will continue to be a threat through the next 24-36 hours. Tropical storm warnings are posted across southern Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. Localized higher winds are likely where brief, fast-moving tornadoes spin up in the southeast quadrant of the storm. Michael is moving fast enough so that Florence-like flooding is not expected. However, localized flash flooding will occur, and rain-loosened soils will combine with the high winds to down many trees and powerlines, leading to widespread power outages.