Category: Posts EN

Potential Tropical Trouble Brewing in the Gulf of Mexico Next Week

Written by Team Morecast

 

An area of tropical low pressure is drifting into the western Caribbean tonight. It’s disorganized for now, but conditions will become favorable for development as it moves towards the Gulf of Mexico. By early next week, all of the models indicate the strong potential for a tropical storm in the central Gulf.

 

 

We’re entering the latter part of the Atlantic tropical cyclone season. Tropical development tends to occur more frequently in the Gulf late in the season because water temperatures remain warm deep into the autumn. Indeed, water temperatures are currently in the upper 20s to near 30 deg C over much of the Gulf, especially the central and northern Gulf (see map above). That’s plenty warm enough to support an intensifying cyclone.

 

 

Upper level conditions will be neutral for development as opposed to either favorable or unfavorable. That could put an upper limit on the potential cyclone’s peak intensity. Still, some of our most reliable models suggest that a tropical storm at least could be threatening the northern Gulf coast by the middle of next week. At this early stage we certainly can’t rule out the chance of a hurricane, either. The ultimate landfall point also remains up in the air. Some models take the storm west towards coastal Louisiana, while some curl the storm into the Florida panhandle. Interests anywhere from Houston to Tampa should pay close attention to this situation.

UPDATE: Kong-Rey Much Weaker, Still a Major Flood Threat for Korea!

Written by Team Morecast

 

A few days ago, Kong-Rey was a powerful super typhoon. Much cooler ocean waters have robbed the cyclone of its energy source. Kong-Rey has been downgraded to a tropical storm with sustained winds to 60 knots (kph). However, the storm will still produce torrential rains over the Korean peninsula with flooding likely.

 

 

Rain bands have already spread across South Korea as Kong-Rey interacts with a trough over southeast Asia. These rains will gradually intensify with some gusty winds likely as well on Saturday. The cyclone will pick up speed and clear the peninsula by Sunday afternoon. Rainfall amounts of at least 75-150 mm (3-6 inches) will be common over much of the peninsula. Eastern portions will see heavier amounts of 150-300 mm (6-12 inches). Locally heavier amounts are likely along the east and southeast-facing slopes where terrain enhances rates. Flash flooding will be a widespread threat late Saturday through Sunday morning. Mudslides will hamper travel through the mountains. Power outages will occur where rain-weakened soils and gusty winds lead to downed trees.

Rainy Week Ahead for the Plains, Flooding Likely!

Written by Team Morecast

 

A cool front is sliding into the Central Plains tonight, sparking some heavy rain storms in Kansas. The front will slow down or stall completely across the Plains and linger through next week. Several disturbances will ride along the front, bringing multiple rounds of heavy rain. Localized flash flooding will occur, and river flooding could eventually become a hazard next week!

 

 

The radar animation above shows the slow-moving storms developing in Kansas tonight. These are marginally severe with some gusty winds and large hail potential. The longer-term threat, however, will be heavy rain and flooding. Areas of central and southern Kansas will see one to locally three inches of rain tonight. More rounds of heavy rain are expected Thursday night, Friday night, and then on-and-off from Saturday through early Tuesday. By the middle of next week, some areas will have tallied eight to as much as twelve inches of rainfall (see graphic below). As of now, it looks like portions of Oklahoma and Kansas are most likely to see the heaviest rainfall totals. Rainfall of this magnitude will overwhelm local drainage systems, leading to flash flooding in the near-term and rivers over their banks in the longer term. Lead photo courtesy Tech. Sgt. Jorge Intriago, US Air National Guard.

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Super Typhoon Kong-Rey Spinning Towards South Korea This Weekend!

Written by Team Morecast

 

Powerful Super Typhoon Kong-Rey is a category four cyclone today east of Taiwan with sustained winds up to 120 mph (195 kph). Like several other storms this season, Kong-Rey will be moving through the Ryukyu Islands in the next day. The next target looks to be either southern Japan or the Korean Peninsula. Model guidance generally suggests Korea is more likely this weekend.

 

 

Kong-Rey is moving into an area of cooler sea surface temperatures. Although it’s a well-organized cyclone, the cooler waters will cause weakening over the next few days. However, it will still be a major weather maker for South Korea and Japan. The latest model guidance is in good agreement about a track that would clip the southern tip of the Korean Peninsula later Saturday through Sunday morning.

 

 

The heaviest rains and damaging winds would likely impact South Korea in this scenario. Kong-Rey will be picking up speed, but will still drop upwards of 12 inches (300 mm) of rain near and north of the cyclone’s path. Locally heavier amounts could fall in the mountains, leading to serious flash flooding and mudslides! A dangerous storm surge could also impact the south coast of Korea, depending on the exact track.