Category: Posts EN

Late Season Cyclone Threatens Southern India

Written by Team Morecast

 

Cyclone Gaja has continued to steadily gain strength overnight. As of Tuesday morning it remains nearly motionless over the central Bay of Bengal. However, model guidance indicates it will soon begin to move westward towards southern India. This region will see significant impacts as Gaja approaches later this week.

 

 

Gaja is and will remain a very small cyclone. That fortunately limits the area of potential impacts. However, the small size could also allow for more rapid intensification. Some of the high-resolution models pick up on this and project a much stronger cyclone nearing landfall. Other, more low-resolution models are forecasting less intensification. How much the system strengthens could also have a significant bearing on where landfall occurs.

 

 

Regardless of how intense Gaja ends up being, the cyclone will bring locally torrential rainfall to southern India. Totals could approach 150-200 mm in some locations, leading to serious flash flooding. Depending on how the system evolves, the southwest coast could also see damaging winds and a minor storm surge. The time frame for main impacts is Thursday into the upcoming weekend. Lead photo courtesy flickr contributor Antoine Delepiere.

Deadly Wildfires Rage Across Parts of California Due to Santa Ana Winds

Written by Team Morecast

 

Strong east to northeast winds and extremely low humidities have developed over much of interior California. This combination has produced the perfect environment for wildfires. Infernos are torching hundreds of thousands of acres along with many homes and businesses. The fire burning near Chico, California has even claimed lives.

 

 

The flow of wind between high pressure over the Great Basin and low pressure near the Pacific coast is producing strong winds. These winds are particularly high on the lee (western) slopes of the mountain ranges of California. Gusts up to 50-70 mph (80-110 kph) have been reported in the hills around the L.A. Basin today (see map above). In this region, these downsloping easterly winds are known as the Santa Ana winds. Relative humidities are also running at 10% or below across much of interior California, dangerously dry conditions. It’s the proverbial powder keg waiting for the slightest spark to start out-of-control blazes.

 

 

The wildfire near Paradise, California began only this morning and has already burned more than 20,000 acres. Evacuations have been mandated across this area with some residents forced to drive through flames and flying cinders to escape (see tweet videos above). A hospital was burned to the ground, one of hundreds of structures destroyed. So far fire containment efforts have been largely ineffective. The city of Chico is next in line to be impacted by this deadly blaze on Friday. Choking smoke has even been blown southwest across the Bay area (see satellite animation at top).

Winds will diminish somewhat by Friday in northern California and a lesser wildfire threat is forecasted. Hopefully this will allow firefighters to gain the upper hand to on the Camp Fire blaze. However, southern California will remain in an extreme wildfire danger (see map below)

 

Scary Storms Threaten Trick-or-Treaters This Halloween in the Mid-South!

Written by Team Morecast

 

It’s been a fairly quiet month for severe storms in the USA, but that’ll change as we move towards November. Trick-or-treaters from eastern Texas across the mid-South will have to dodge dangerous storms this Halloween. Damaging winds and hail, flash flooding, and even a few isolated tornadoes will develop on Wednesday afternoon!

 

 

A strong trough (see satellite animation above) will drop down from the Rockies into the Southern Plains on Wednesday. Meanwhile, gulf moisture will surge up towards a front from Texas to the Ohio River Valley. The atmosphere will become very unstable by early Wednesday afternoon from south Texas into Louisiana. The combination of these factors will spark severe storms to erupt in eastern Texas. These storms will push east overnight towards southern Mississippi and Alabama by Thursday.

 

 

North of the severe squall line, moisture will be rung out of the air along a stationary front from the Ozarks to the Ohio River Valley. Localized amounts up to 5-7 inches (125-175 mm) will lead to serious flooding in a few spots from late Wednesday through late Thursday. Exercise extreme caution if you have to travel through this corridor. Lead photo courtesy flickr contributor H. Michael Miley.

Major Hurricane Willa Roars Into Southwest Mexico; Could Fuel U.S. East Coast Storm!

Written by Team Morecast

 

Hurricane Willa is slamming the Mexican states of Nayarit and Sinaloa tonight with destructive winds, storm surge, and flooding rainfall. Although the cyclone will break up quickly over the rugged mountains of central Mexico, the remnant energy will emerge over the southeast U.S. later this week. Merging with a trough ejecting from the Plains, Willa’s ghostly remnants could spawn a pre-Halloween Nor’Easter by next weekend!

 

 

 

Willa made landfall as a category three storm near Isla Del Bosque in the state of Sinaloa around 7 p.m. local time Tuesday evening. Willa is the first major (category three or higher) hurricane to hit the Pacific coast of Mexico since 2015, and only the fifth since 1989. It’s part of a very active 2018 Pacific cyclone season. Between the western and eastern tropical basins, more than 48 storms have been named, including 17 major hurricanes (called supertyphoons in the western basin). Fortunately, we’re approaching the end of the season as October turns to November.

 

 

The prospects for an east coast storm in the U.S. are increasing. An upper level trough will sweep the remnants of Willa from the northern Gulf coast towards the southeastern states. This extra energy will spark a rapidly intensifying surface low near the Outer Banks late Friday. This storm will rake the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts through the weekend. Gusty onshore winds will accompany this storm, causing high surf and potentially leading to some beach erosion. Minor wind damage and localized flooding rainfall could occur, too.