Category: Posts EN

 

Hurricane Michael made landfall a little before 2 pm ET near Mexico Beach, Florida, just southeast of Panama City. Michael continued to intensify up until landfall, unusual for a cyclone. With sustained winds to 155 mph (250 kph) and a minimum central pressure of 919 mb, Michael was near or just below category five status. It’s one of the top five strongest hurricanes ever to hit the U.S. mainland!

 

 

We won’t venture out until it’s safe but many people are wondering about their family members and homes. Here is my view from 23rd street summer house up and down 98. pic.twitter.com/37AuUQOAGH

— Ginger Zee (@Ginger_Zee) October 10, 2018

 

Michael continues to move quickly northeast across central Georgia. Despite some weakening, Michael is still a hurricane with sustained winds to 85 mph (137 kph) as of the 9 pm ET update. Steady weakening will continue but Michael will still be capable of producing flooding rainfall, damaging winds, and tornadoes through Thursday before moving off the southeast coast early Friday.

 

 

Reports and gauge data indicate the storm surge probably peaked in the mid-afternoon just after landfall. The gauge at Apalachicola reached nearly 8.5 feet (2.5 m) above mean sea level around 2 pm ET. Since then the water has retreated to “only” three feet above sea level. As the storm marches inland and regular lunar tide goes out, surge flooding will continue to slowly recede.

 

A look at what houses in #Mexico Beach, #Florida look like right now. This is a follow up from the previous clip posted. They are now submerged and were no match for #HurricaneMichael (via Tessa Talarico) #Hurricane #Michael #HurricaneMichael2018 pic.twitter.com/GJENrhFJha

— Josh Benson (@WFLAJosh) October 10, 2018

This is what a CAT 4 will do. I do not understand why some people never evacuate. #HurricaneMichael pic.twitter.com/mBgde7JS2J

— Antonio Paris (@AntonioParis) October 10, 2018

 

The strongest wind gust thus far of 129 mph (208 kph) was measured at Tyndall Air Force Base. Several stations in the region have reported gusts exceeding 100 mph with many failing shortly thereafter due to the high winds. These damaging winds will continue to be a threat through the next 24-36 hours. Tropical storm warnings are posted across southern Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. Localized higher winds are likely where brief, fast-moving tornadoes spin up in the southeast quadrant of the storm. Michael is moving fast enough so that Florence-like flooding is not expected. However, localized flash flooding will occur, and rain-loosened soils will combine with the high winds to down many trees and powerlines, leading to widespread power outages.

 

Hurricane Michael continued to gain strength on Tuesday. As of Tuesday evening, Michael is a major category three hurricane with sustained winds to 120 mph, one of the strongest ever Gulf hurricanes in the month of October. Michael is expected to be a very dangerous storm as it approaches landfall in the Florida panhandle by midday Wednesday!

 

 

Gorgeous evening in Panama City with a slight breeze– and already significant storm-surge flooding. Can’t even imagine what this place is gonna look like in 24 hours. Holy hell. #Hurricane #MICHAEL pic.twitter.com/GznYP8aSXh

— Josh Morgerman (@iCyclone) October 9, 2018

 

Water is already rising ahead of the hurricane along the coast of Florida (see tweet above). Panama City, Florida remains the likely landfall point by mid-afternoon on Wednesday. The water ahead of Michael is warm and wind shear will remain low through landfall. If Michael maintains strength as forecast, it’ll be only the fourth major hurricane to strike the Florida panhandle since 1950.

 

 

A deadly storm surge of 9-13 feet (3-4 m) will flood the coast of the Florida panhandle on Wednesday near and east of where the eye hits land (see graphic above). Destructive wind gusts exceeding 100 mph will affect not only the coast but adjacent inland areas even into southwest Georgia. Tropical storm-force winds capable of knocking down trees and causing power outages will slam an area from Florida through southern portions of Georgia and South Carolina.

 

 

Michael is a fairly small, fast-moving cyclone, totally unlike historic Hurricane Florence in the Carolinas last month. Nonetheless, some areas will see very heavy rainfall approaching 10 inches (250 mm) in spots (see map above). Significant freshwater flooding will be a threat, especially where it combines with ocean surge flooding.

 

Over the weekend, tropical cyclone Michael gained strength quickly and is now a hurricane. Additional intensification is expected as it crosses the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane warnings are already in effect from coastal Alabama across the Florida panhandle. By early Wednesday, Michael could be a major hurricane approaching the Gulf Coast!

 

 

Michael is currently moving between the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. It’s only a category one storm now, but warm water and low vertical wind shear is ahead. These favorable conditions will allow further intensification. Some of the models bring it to near major (category three) hurricane status before it hits the coast. The models are also in fairly good agreement on the probable landfall point, if not the track after landfall. At this time Panama City on the western Florida panhandle looks to be ground zero. This will be the area likely to see a destructive storm surge and widespread damaging winds.

 

 

The cyclone will be moving fairly quickly, so the kind of record-setting rainfall that we saw with Florence is unlikely. However, very heavy rainfall rates will occur as the storm moves through. The heaviest storm totals of 6-12 inches (150-300 mm) will fall from the Florida panhandle into southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia. Significant flash flooding is likely in this area. Expect amounts of 3-6 inches (75-150 mm) from the southern Appalachians into much of the Carolinas with more localized flooding there.