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Cyclone Owen has continue to intensify today as it moves slowly east across the Gulf of Carpentaria. Very warm water temperatures and low shear are helping Owen pick up steam. The cyclone is moving more slowly than anticipated, but destructive winds and rains will eventually reach the Cape York peninsula!

 

 

Owen is currently a category three cyclone and may reach category four status later on Friday. Landfall is now expected early on Saturday morning near Pormpuraaw and Kowanyawa. Near the landfall point and just inland, destructive winds are likely gusts exceeding 150 kph. Owen will weaken as it traverses northern Queensland. However, locally damaging winds and flooding rains will accompany the system as it passes near Cairns on the east coast.

 

 

Owen’s prospects from Sunday into early next week are in question. Some of the models suggest the storm will continue to move out over the Coral Sea. However, some keep the cyclone hugging the QLD coast. Obviously a track closer to the coast would increase the risk of significant winds and rains south of Townsville towards Rockhampton. We’ll keep watching and issue updates as needed.

The combination of Tropical Cyclone Owen and a powerful upper low over the southeast has tapped into rich tropical moisture. This moisture has invaded much of eastern Australia, sparking widespread storm development. Flooding rains will continue to inundate many areas through the weekend.

Cyclone Owen continues to loiter over the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria. Meanwhile, an upper low has moved into the interior southeast. Strong northerly flow to the west of these systems is pulling tropical moisture from the Coral Sea south. This moisture is helping feed numerous storms across Queensland, New South Wales, and Victoria. The strongest storms have mostly been over the interior so far where the best combination of tropical moisture and heat resides. You can see on the map below the concentration of lightning activity early Thursday afternoon over the interior. Lightning strike frequency is climbing past 120 strokes per minute!

 

 

Although locally damaging winds are a threat, the most common danger with these storms is torrential rainfall and flash flooding. Some of the heaviest amounts so far have been reported in the Alps of eastern Victoria, with rates exceeding 50 mm/hr. Our models suggest this long-ranging squall line will approach the NSW coast later this afternoon or evening, including Sydney and Newcastle.

 

The remnants of last week’s Coral Sea cyclone Owen have drifted into the Gulf of Carpentaria. Extremely warm waters there have allowed the system to reintensify. Now a major cyclone threatens the Cape York peninsula for the late week. After that, heavy rains and high winds could lash much of the eastern Queensland coast!

 

Sea surface temperatures up to 32 deg C reside over the Gulf of Carpentaria. Owen will continue to thrive in these bathtub-like conditions. The cyclone is drifting slowly west at this time, however a turn to the southeast will commence on Thursday. By Friday a violent cyclone is expected to bring wind gusts to 200 kph along the southwest gulf coast. Some weakening will occur after landfall, however Owen may eventually be able to tap into warm Coral Sea waters again. Model guidance indicates the storm will rake the eastern QLD coast with damaging wind gusts as high as 150 kph between Townsville and Fraser Island this weekend.

 

Owen’s interactions with a strong upper level trough over the southeast will enhance rainfall along the QLD coastal corridor for the next several days. Rainfall totals of 150-300 mm will be common in this region, leading to widespread flooding as far south as northeast New South Wales. Owen will finally dissipate by the Monday to Tuesday time frame next week.

 

The remnants of former Cyclone Owen have been drifting west over the past several days. The system is now entering the very warm waters of the Gulf of Carpentaria. Analysis indicates that conditions are favorable for rapid reintensification. By Friday, a major cyclone could be menacing the Cape York peninsula!

 

 

The remnant tropical low has been producing torrential rainfall over parts of coastal Queensland over the past several days. Some stations have totaled up to 300 mm since this past weekend. The low is now entering the Gulf of Carpentaria, where water temperatures are running about 30-32 deg C, plenty warm enough to serve as explosive cyclone fuel. We expect the storm to intensify Tuesday into Wednesday as it starts to turn back towards the east-southeast. By Friday, Owen could be up to category three cyclone status, capable of destructive wind gusts exceeding 150 kph.

 

 

The track late this week through the weekend is less certain. Some of the more recent model runs indicate the storm could hug the eastern QLD coast into Sunday and Monday. Needless to say, that would mean a long-ranging threat for damaging winds and flooding rains. We’ll keep an eye on the forecast guidance and issue updates as needed.