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Resurgent Cyclone Owen Threatens Queensland Coast!

Written by Team Morecast

 

The remnants of last week’s Coral Sea cyclone Owen have drifted into the Gulf of Carpentaria. Extremely warm waters there have allowed the system to reintensify. Now a major cyclone threatens the Cape York peninsula for the late week. After that, heavy rains and high winds could lash much of the eastern Queensland coast!

 

Sea surface temperatures up to 32 deg C reside over the Gulf of Carpentaria. Owen will continue to thrive in these bathtub-like conditions. The cyclone is drifting slowly west at this time, however a turn to the southeast will commence on Thursday. By Friday a violent cyclone is expected to bring wind gusts to 200 kph along the southwest gulf coast. Some weakening will occur after landfall, however Owen may eventually be able to tap into warm Coral Sea waters again. Model guidance indicates the storm will rake the eastern QLD coast with damaging wind gusts as high as 150 kph between Townsville and Fraser Island this weekend.

 

Owen’s interactions with a strong upper level trough over the southeast will enhance rainfall along the QLD coastal corridor for the next several days. Rainfall totals of 150-300 mm will be common in this region, leading to widespread flooding as far south as northeast New South Wales. Owen will finally dissipate by the Monday to Tuesday time frame next week.

High Cyclone Potential in the Gulf of Carpentaria This Week!

Written by Team Morecast

 

The remnants of former Cyclone Owen have been drifting west over the past several days. The system is now entering the very warm waters of the Gulf of Carpentaria. Analysis indicates that conditions are favorable for rapid reintensification. By Friday, a major cyclone could be menacing the Cape York peninsula!

 

 

The remnant tropical low has been producing torrential rainfall over parts of coastal Queensland over the past several days. Some stations have totaled up to 300 mm since this past weekend. The low is now entering the Gulf of Carpentaria, where water temperatures are running about 30-32 deg C, plenty warm enough to serve as explosive cyclone fuel. We expect the storm to intensify Tuesday into Wednesday as it starts to turn back towards the east-southeast. By Friday, Owen could be up to category three cyclone status, capable of destructive wind gusts exceeding 150 kph.

 

 

The track late this week through the weekend is less certain. Some of the more recent model runs indicate the storm could hug the eastern QLD coast into Sunday and Monday. Needless to say, that would mean a long-ranging threat for damaging winds and flooding rains. We’ll keep an eye on the forecast guidance and issue updates as needed.

 

Heavy Rains and Winds Target Eastern Queensland Later This Week

Written by Team Morecast

 

The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Owen will push slowly towards the Queensland coast in the next several days. The cyclone has weakened and is now just a tropical low. However, moist onshore flow colliding with the hilly terrain of eastern QLD will produce torrential rainfall through early next week.

 

 

Much of Queensland has seen below normal precipitation over the winter and spring (see graphic above). These dry conditions have contributed to massive wildfires in the past few weeks, leading to thousands of home evacuations and school closings. In that context, any steady rain will be welcome.

 

 

However, the rain may come too much, too fast in east-central sections. Our models are uncertain about the exact track of the remnant tropical low. Some carry it north towards the Cape York peninsula, some south towards southeast QLD. Rainfall and winds will be heaviest south of the low. Models do agree that a large area will see upwards of 300 mm late this week through Monday. Strong winds will also affect mainly the exposed coasts with gusts to 90 kph. Watch for rough surf as well along the entire coast of Queensland. Lead photo courtesy flickr user shebalso.

Flooding Rains Cripple Weds AM Commute in Sydney!

Written by Team Morecast

 

One of the strongest storms in months has racked much of eastern New South Wales with heavy rains and high winds. A deep tap of moisture has combined with upper level energy to produce numerous severe storms. Sydney saw torrential rainfall just in time for the Wednesday morning commute. Seventy-three millimeters of rain fell in an hour between 6-7 AM, flooding streets and shutting down commuter trains. Local police responded to nearly 1,000 weather-related calls with 15 water rescues needed. Sydney Airport was down to one runway for much of the day, leading to nearly 100 cancelled flights. Delays and cancellations are also being reported with flights out of Canberra, Melbourne, and Brisbane.

 

 

Severe storms have also caused wind damage from central and northeast New South Wales. Maitland Airport reported a gust to 95 kph as storms rolled through mid-morning. The threat for organized severe storms is waning. However, moderate to locally heavy rains continue around Sydney and Newcastle. High water and urban flooding will still be a threat for the evening commute. Onshore winds are also picking up – a gust to 80 kph was recently reported at Sydney Airport, and 96 kph at Wattamolla. These winds combined with rain-loosened soils could boost the risk for trees and powerlines coming down this evening.