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The combination of Tropical Cyclone Owen and a powerful upper low over the southeast has tapped into rich tropical moisture. This moisture has invaded much of eastern Australia, sparking widespread storm development. Flooding rains will continue to inundate many areas through the weekend.

Cyclone Owen continues to loiter over the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria. Meanwhile, an upper low has moved into the interior southeast. Strong northerly flow to the west of these systems is pulling tropical moisture from the Coral Sea south. This moisture is helping feed numerous storms across Queensland, New South Wales, and Victoria. The strongest storms have mostly been over the interior so far where the best combination of tropical moisture and heat resides. You can see on the map below the concentration of lightning activity early Thursday afternoon over the interior. Lightning strike frequency is climbing past 120 strokes per minute!

 

 

Although locally damaging winds are a threat, the most common danger with these storms is torrential rainfall and flash flooding. Some of the heaviest amounts so far have been reported in the Alps of eastern Victoria, with rates exceeding 50 mm/hr. Our models suggest this long-ranging squall line will approach the NSW coast later this afternoon or evening, including Sydney and Newcastle.

 

The remnants of last week’s Coral Sea cyclone Owen have drifted into the Gulf of Carpentaria. Extremely warm waters there have allowed the system to reintensify. Now a major cyclone threatens the Cape York peninsula for the late week. After that, heavy rains and high winds could lash much of the eastern Queensland coast!

 

Sea surface temperatures up to 32 deg C reside over the Gulf of Carpentaria. Owen will continue to thrive in these bathtub-like conditions. The cyclone is drifting slowly west at this time, however a turn to the southeast will commence on Thursday. By Friday a violent cyclone is expected to bring wind gusts to 200 kph along the southwest gulf coast. Some weakening will occur after landfall, however Owen may eventually be able to tap into warm Coral Sea waters again. Model guidance indicates the storm will rake the eastern QLD coast with damaging wind gusts as high as 150 kph between Townsville and Fraser Island this weekend.

 

Owen’s interactions with a strong upper level trough over the southeast will enhance rainfall along the QLD coastal corridor for the next several days. Rainfall totals of 150-300 mm will be common in this region, leading to widespread flooding as far south as northeast New South Wales. Owen will finally dissipate by the Monday to Tuesday time frame next week.

 

The remnants of former Cyclone Owen have been drifting west over the past several days. The system is now entering the very warm waters of the Gulf of Carpentaria. Analysis indicates that conditions are favorable for rapid reintensification. By Friday, a major cyclone could be menacing the Cape York peninsula!

 

 

The remnant tropical low has been producing torrential rainfall over parts of coastal Queensland over the past several days. Some stations have totaled up to 300 mm since this past weekend. The low is now entering the Gulf of Carpentaria, where water temperatures are running about 30-32 deg C, plenty warm enough to serve as explosive cyclone fuel. We expect the storm to intensify Tuesday into Wednesday as it starts to turn back towards the east-southeast. By Friday, Owen could be up to category three cyclone status, capable of destructive wind gusts exceeding 150 kph.

 

 

The track late this week through the weekend is less certain. Some of the more recent model runs indicate the storm could hug the eastern QLD coast into Sunday and Monday. Needless to say, that would mean a long-ranging threat for damaging winds and flooding rains. We’ll keep an eye on the forecast guidance and issue updates as needed.

 

 

The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Owen will push slowly towards the Queensland coast in the next several days. The cyclone has weakened and is now just a tropical low. However, moist onshore flow colliding with the hilly terrain of eastern QLD will produce torrential rainfall through early next week.

 

 

Much of Queensland has seen below normal precipitation over the winter and spring (see graphic above). These dry conditions have contributed to massive wildfires in the past few weeks, leading to thousands of home evacuations and school closings. In that context, any steady rain will be welcome.

 

 

However, the rain may come too much, too fast in east-central sections. Our models are uncertain about the exact track of the remnant tropical low. Some carry it north towards the Cape York peninsula, some south towards southeast QLD. Rainfall and winds will be heaviest south of the low. Models do agree that a large area will see upwards of 300 mm late this week through Monday. Strong winds will also affect mainly the exposed coasts with gusts to 90 kph. Watch for rough surf as well along the entire coast of Queensland. Lead photo courtesy flickr user shebalso.