Category: Posts EN

Deadly Arctic Surge Expanding from the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes!

Written by Team Morecast

 

The coldest air mass in decades is pressing east and southeast tonight from the Midwest to the Great Lakes. Temperatures have just fallen below zero °F in Chicago and may not rise back above until late Thursday or early Friday. Wind chills in the Windy City and elsewhere will plummet to life-threatening low levels through the next few days.

A chunk of frigid Arctic air has descended behind a deep upper-level trough from Canada into the central U.S. It will eventually expand to include the Great Lakes and Northeast by Wednesday into Thursday. Widespread snow cover will help temperatures fall well below zero across much of this region, as cold as the minus 40s °F over portions of the Upper Midwest. Low temperatures in Chicago the next two nights will be some of the coldest the city has ever recorded. The all-time record low of minus 27 °F at O’Hare International Airport will be threatened Wednesday night.

 

 

Winds will remain somewhat gusty at least through tonight into Wednesday. The combination of winds and frigid temperatures will plunge wind chills into the minus 50s and 60s (see graphic above from the National Weather Service). The graphic below shows the dangerous health effects associated with this kind of extreme cold. Wind chills in the forecast range of the next few days will lead to frostbite of exposed skin within just a few minutes. Prolonged outdoor activity should be avoided if at all possible! Fortunately, a rapid warm-up will defrost much of the region late in the week and into this weekend.

 

 

Historic Flooding Hammers Northeastern Queensland, Australia

Written by Team Morecast

 

The remnants of a monsoonal low continue to pump tropical moisture into portions of northeastern Queensland. Some stations have reported upwards of 500 mm of rain in the past several days! Unfortunately, the heavy rain will continue along the coast and near-coastal ranges from Townsville to Mackay. Serious flooding will continue to threaten the region (see tweet links below).

 

 

 

 

The tropical low in question is tapping into rich Coral Sea moisture. North to northeast winds are pushing this moisture onto the coast and up into the mountains nearby, enhancing rainfall rates. This process began near Cairns last week and has slowly migrated south. The Daintree area among others has seen record-setting rainfall totals, leading to major river flooding.

 

 

For the next several days, the tropical rain band will pound the coast between Townsville and Mackay, QLD (see map above). This area has already seen 200 to as much as 500 mm. Additional rainfall amounts locally as high as 500-600 mm are likely! Flash flooding will be widespread, and runoff from the rainfall will lead to rapid and dangerous rises in area rivers. Lead photo courtesy flickr user Timothy Swinson.

 

Powerful Arctic Surge to Invade the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Next Week!

Written by Team Morecast

Winter has taken a firm grip on much of the Midwest and East through the last few weeks. The map below shows temperatures from four to as much as ten degrees colder than normal over portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast in the last week or so. However, the coldest air of the season could be poised to descend on these regions early next week.

 

 

 

A steady supply of frigid Arctic air is streaming down from the high latitudes towards central and eastern portions of the Lower 48. A large, deep upper level trough is providing the pipeline. One last batch of this Arctic air will move into the Upper Midwest early next week, spreading across the Great Lakes and Northeast by mid-week (see animation at top). Many areas will stay well below zero ˚F (-18 ˚C) for several days. In the case of International Falls, MN, at the border with Canada, the streak of subzero temperatures could reach eight or nine days (see forecast graphic below). Some locations will see record-threatening morning lows as low as minus 45 ˚F (-43 ˚C)! Needless to say, cold of this magnitude is dangerous and potentially deadly. Fortunately, it appears that the pattern will change with warmer weather likely the week after next.

 

Tropical Trouble Brewing Across Northern Australia!

Written by Team Morecast

 

A pair of tropical cyclone threats have developed across the northern coast of Australia. One cyclone has already formed just north of Western Australia, called Riley. This storm’s outermost rainbands will produce some spotty heavy rain in the Kimberly and Pilbara regions of northern WA in the next several days. However, more direct and serious impacts could be coming from a cyclone not yet named in the Gulf of Carpentaria.

As of yet, the Gulf cyclone remains disorganized. Very heavy rains are already falling, however, over the Cape Yorke peninsula. Our weather models have yet to agree on the future track of this tropical low. Some move it southwest across the very warm Gulf waters. That track would increase the likelihood of cyclone development. However, some models move it south along the west coast of the Cape Yorke peninsula, or even over the middle of the peninsula. That would limit the opportunity for intensification.

 

 

Regardless of whether the system becomes a full-fledged cyclone or not, it will transporting very rich tropical moisture over northern Queensland. The map above shows the potential cyclone tracks as well as the timing of the flooding rain potential. Some locations will see totals of 300-400 mm by this weekend! Serious flash and river flooding will be the result. Lead photo courtesy flickr user Rexness.