Category: Posts EN

Cyclone Oma To Brush Past New Caledonia, A Distant Threat for Mainland Australia

Written by Team Morecast

 

Tropical Cyclone Oma has been steadily strengthening today as it moves slowly over the eastern Coral Sea. Over the next few days, it will be skirting past Vanuatu and New Caledonia, lashing those islands with gusty winds and locally heavy rain. Looking further ahead to next week, we can’t rule out some significant impacts for eastern Australia.

 

 

Model guidance carries the storm southwest and eventually south over the Coral Sea in the next several days. Most of the models continue the turn to the southeast towards the open ocean. However, a few models track the cyclone closer to the Australian coast. At this time, this solution is considered unlikely but not out of the realm of possibility. Water temperatures off the eastern Australian coast don’t support a major cyclone, but significant impacts can still occur with a weakening storm.

 

 

Even if the cyclone stays well offshore, coastal eastern Australia could still see noticeable effects next week. High waves and heavy surf can occur thousands of kilometers from a cyclone. Gusty winds are also likely for the outer islands and exposed capes. Of course, a closer pass from the cyclone would mean more dangerous hazards. We’ll keep a close eye on the trends.

Thundery Ice Storm Causing Major Travel Dangers in the Plains!

Written by Team Morecast

 

You might expect to see a radar/lightning map like the one below in April or May in the Plains. Numerous storms are moving through the the corridor from Kansas and Oklahoma into Missouri and Arkansas. Some of these storms are strong to severe, even tornado-capable in isolated cases. However, thanks to a strong Arctic air mass draped across the area, the most widespread and dangerous hazard into Thursday will be ice accumulation.

 

 

The Arctic air mass that has creeped south into the Central Plains is very shallow. Not far above the surface, temperatures are much warmer, well above freezing. The map below shows the freezing line not only at the surface (in blue) but at 5,000 feet (in purple). In between these lines, rain is falling into surface temperatures below freezing, in some areas well below freezing in the teens and lower 20s. The rain is thus freezing at it reaches the surface, creating a dangerous glaze of ice. Some locations within the pink shading will see ice accumulation up to 0.5 inch through midday Thursday. Travel will be quite dangerous and should be avoided if at all possible. Scattered power outages will also be a threat as ice-laden tree branches and power lines come down. Lead photo courtesy flickr contributor Alan Light.

 

Much of Townsville, Queensland Under Water Thanks to Two Meters of Rain!

Written by Team Morecast

 

Monsoonal rainfall persisted over the weekend and into Monday over the central coast of Queensland. Some stations in the Townsville region have reported over two meters of rainfall in the past 10 days. This prodigious rainfall has put local rivers in major and even record flooding stages. Urgently required water releases from upstream dams have sent floodwaters rolling into Townsville, inundating much of the city!

 

 

 

Rainfall amounts have exceeded 2,000 mm for some stations near Townsville in the past 7-10 days. The station at the head of the Bluewater River is the leader so far at 2,338 mm since 27-Jan. Many highways into and out of Townsville are underwater with local grocery stores empty of food. Fortunately, the Bruce Highway reopened Tuesday morning, allowing fresh supplies to be transported in. Thousands of residents have been forced out of their homes and into emergency shelters. Officials have even warned residents to watch for wildlife like snakes and crocodiles displaced by the floodwaters (see the video above). Sadly, the bodies of two men who were missing for days were found in a flooded storm drain.

 

 

There is good news on the horizon if you squint hard enough. The stationary monsoon low responsible for the rain has finally started to move slowly northeast. Over the next few days it will shift across northern Queensland. The band of rain that has been pounding Townsville for more than a week is likewise on the move. Coastal areas to the south from Bowen to Mackay will be under the gun through the end of the week. Additional rains of 300-600 mm are generally expected in this area, but a few locations will see higher amounts up to 700-800 mm. By this weekend, the entire system will move off into the Coral Sea, gradually ending the flooding threat across the region. The process of recovery will take much longer, however. Lead photo courtesy flickr contributor Tatters.

Record-Breaking Arctic Air Chills Midwest, Northeast USA!

Written by Team Morecast

 

A frigid Arctic air mass has settled across the northern tier from the Upper Midwest to the Northeast. Temperatures have plummeted to record-breaking low levels in multiple states. Unfortunately, the cold temperatures have proven deadly in some locations.

 

 

The initial surge was accompanied by gusty winds over the Upper Midwest on Tuesday night into Wednesday. That allowed wind chills to fall below minus 60 °F over a wide area (see map above provided by NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center). As we explained on Tuesday, wind chills of this magnitude will cause frostbite of exposed skin within a few minutes.

Winds diminished Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This reduced the magnitude of the wind chill, but allowed actual temperatures to bottom out. The map below shows Thursday morning low temperatures. At least three sites in Iowa and Illinois reported their lowest temperature readings ever. A trained weather observer in Mt. Carroll, IL reported a low of minus 38 °F. If officially verified, it would be the coldest temperature ever reported in the state of Illinois! The coldest low of the morning was in Cotton, Minnesota, at minus 56 °F, only four degrees from a state record there.

 

 

Some noteworthy impacts of the historic Arctic surge:

  • At least 7-10 deaths have been blamed on the extreme cold. A student of the University of Iowa was found unresponsive behind an academic hall and was later declared dead at the hospital.
  • Populations of the homeless and elderly are particularly vulnerable and the Chicago Transit Authority has turned some of their buses into mobile warming shelters.
  • Rolling power outages affected large portions of the Midwest due to the extraordinary demand on the electrical grid.
  • The governors of Michigan and Wisconsin both declared states of emergency and closed state offices.
  • The U.S. Postal Service suspended delivery operations in some areas.
  • Thousands of flights have been delayed or cancelled, especially in and out of Chicago’s O’Hare International, where Wednesday morning temperatures came within a few degrees of the all-time record low.

Lead photo courtesy flickr contributor Edward Stojakovic