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The storm that we first suggested on Monday continues to look likely. The models have trended towards a more northerly storm track that would drop the biggest snows over interior sections of the Northeast. The big cities aren’t out of the woods yet, though. We’re still several days away and it wouldn’t take much of a shift to bring the bullseye to the coast.

Two upper level systems will merge late in the week to produce the big storm. One is entering the West coast tonight; the other will dive down from the Canadian Arctic. The northern system will bring with it not only the winter storm potential but also a shot of frigid Arctic air that will dominate the central and eastern sections of the country well into next week. Snow will develop from the Midwest into the central Appalachians and the Northeast from Saturday into Saturday night. Initial snows will likely change to rain along the immediate coast, including the major coastal cities. Just inland, snow will mix with sleet and freezing rain. A dangerous accumulation of slick ice will present a major hazard for travelers over these interior sections through Sunday.

 

 

Inland from the mix, precipitation will fall as mainly snow. The snow will be quite heavy starting Saturday night over parts of Pennsylvania and New York, then Maine into Canada on Sunday and Sunday night. Rates will approach 1-2″ (2-5 cm) per hour in this time frame. The heaviest storm totals of 16-28 inches (40-70 cm) will occur mainly over the mountains of interior New England and into adjacent portions of New Brunswick. These heavy snows will be accompanied by high winds, leading to near-blizzard conditions with drifts of several feet. Travel will become virtually impossible Sunday! Stay tuned to your local weather provider or morecast.com for the latest updates.

 

The abnormally wet pattern in the western U.S. will continue through the rest of the week. One last slug of heavy Pacific moisture will slam into California through Thursday. It will bring flooding rains to the lower elevations and dangerous blizzard conditions to the mountains.

Most of the coastal storms in the past several weeks have been affecting areas of the west coast from northern California up through Washington. The jet stream is about to shift, however, allowing this week’s storm to dip further south. Areas as far south as the L.A. Basin will see heavy precipitation with major impacts.

 

 

Lower elevations will see heavy rainfall, especially from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches will be common across the region, with higher amounts of 2-5 inches likely for the coastal areas and the west to southwest-facing hills. Rainfall of this magnitude will lead to spotty flooding, life-threatening in some situations. Mudslides will lead to road closures in some areas. Gusty winds will lead to downed trees and powerlines in some areas as well, resulting in power outages.

 

 

At elevations above 6,000-7,000 feet, the precipitation will fall mainly as heavy, wet snow. Crippling accumulations of 2-4 feet will tally at those elevations. The combination of heavy snow and high winds gusting to 70 mph will lead to dangerous and prolonged blizzard conditions, including near-zero visibilities and drifts of ten feet or more. Travel will become impossible for the late week period through the high mountain passes. Lead photo courtesy Airman 1st Class Jack Sanders, USAF

 

For snow lovers in the coastal Northeast U.S. it was a dismal holiday season. Portions of the South and Mid-Atlantic have seen plenty of the white stuff. However, the major cities along the Urban Corridor have seen little to no snow since December 1st (see table below). A major shift in the weather pattern should bring an end to the snow drought, however, starting as early as this weekend.

 

 

The upper air flow across much of the U.S. in the past 6+ weeks has been fairly zonal. There have been storm systems and plenty of rain with some snow in the mountains. However, intrusions of Arctic air have been mostly bottled up in northern Canada. Temperatures have settled down into winter-like ranges the past several days, though. Meanwhile, a more amplified jet stream pattern looks to develop later this week, often a favorable setup for snowy “Nor’Easter” storms.

 

 

The latest model guidance suggests a potent storm system will ride along a strong cold front late this week into the weekend. Significant snows could affect portions of the Midwest, the central Appalachians, and the Northeast. Which locations see how much snowfall will depend on the track and strength of the low pressure system (see map above). A stronger and/or southerly storm will mean colder air along the coast and a major snow storm! However, a more northerly and/or weaker storm will bring warmer air into the cities. In that circumstance, a wintry mix could change to rain overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. Right now the trends point to the warmer/rainier scenario. Heavy snows would threaten the interior mountains, however the Urban Corridor would be largely spared. A lot could change in the next several days, though, so play close attention to your local forecasts!