Category: Posts EN

Powerful Arctic Surge to Invade the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Next Week!

Written by Team Morecast

Winter has taken a firm grip on much of the Midwest and East through the last few weeks. The map below shows temperatures from four to as much as ten degrees colder than normal over portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast in the last week or so. However, the coldest air of the season could be poised to descend on these regions early next week.

 

 

 

A steady supply of frigid Arctic air is streaming down from the high latitudes towards central and eastern portions of the Lower 48. A large, deep upper level trough is providing the pipeline. One last batch of this Arctic air will move into the Upper Midwest early next week, spreading across the Great Lakes and Northeast by mid-week (see animation at top). Many areas will stay well below zero ˚F (-18 ˚C) for several days. In the case of International Falls, MN, at the border with Canada, the streak of subzero temperatures could reach eight or nine days (see forecast graphic below). Some locations will see record-threatening morning lows as low as minus 45 ˚F (-43 ˚C)! Needless to say, cold of this magnitude is dangerous and potentially deadly. Fortunately, it appears that the pattern will change with warmer weather likely the week after next.

 

Tropical Trouble Brewing Across Northern Australia!

Written by Team Morecast

 

A pair of tropical cyclone threats have developed across the northern coast of Australia. One cyclone has already formed just north of Western Australia, called Riley. This storm’s outermost rainbands will produce some spotty heavy rain in the Kimberly and Pilbara regions of northern WA in the next several days. However, more direct and serious impacts could be coming from a cyclone not yet named in the Gulf of Carpentaria.

As of yet, the Gulf cyclone remains disorganized. Very heavy rains are already falling, however, over the Cape Yorke peninsula. Our weather models have yet to agree on the future track of this tropical low. Some move it southwest across the very warm Gulf waters. That track would increase the likelihood of cyclone development. However, some models move it south along the west coast of the Cape Yorke peninsula, or even over the middle of the peninsula. That would limit the opportunity for intensification.

 

 

Regardless of whether the system becomes a full-fledged cyclone or not, it will transporting very rich tropical moisture over northern Queensland. The map above shows the potential cyclone tracks as well as the timing of the flooding rain potential. Some locations will see totals of 300-400 mm by this weekend! Serious flash and river flooding will be the result. Lead photo courtesy flickr user Rexness.

Crippling Snow and Ice Storm Slams the Northeast!

Written by Team Morecast

 

A powerful winter storm raked areas of the Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast late last week into the weekend. Snowfall up to 30 inches ( cm) was accompanied by wind gusts up to 50 mph (80 kph), leading to dangerous blizzard conditions. The coldest air of the season has invaded the eastern U.S. in the storm’s wake.

 

 

The map above shows snow accumulations from Friday through Monday (19-21 January). The heaviest totals exceeding 18 inches (45 cm) were recorded from central New York through the mountains of interior New England to eastern Maine. Widespread totals of 12-18 inches (30-45 cm) were reported all the way back into northeastern Ohio and as far south as Albany. Accumulations of 8-12 inches (20-30 cm) affected northern Pennsylvania and the northwestern suburbs of Boston.

To the south, snow mixed with sleet and freezing rain (not shown on map above). Icing totals of 0.25-0.5 inch (6-12 mm) occurred over portions of northeastern Pennsylvania, southern New York, and southern New England just inland from the coast. The icing and winds combined to knock down branches and power lines, resulting in numerous power outages.

 

 

The storm ushered in a frigid Arctic air mass, resulting in the coldest temperatures of the season (see map above for Monday morning lows). Gusty northwest winds persisted through Sunday night and Monday behind the departing storm. Wind chills plummeted well below zero deg F for many areas, even as far south as the major coastal cities. Fortunately, conditions should improve rapidly this week. Lead photo courtesy flickr user Thomas Chung.

Heavy Snow and Ice Storm Imminent for the Midwest and Northeast!

Written by Team Morecast

 

Winter storm warnings and advisories are in effect across the Midwest and Northeast U.S. (see map below). A major winter storm is swirling across the Plains tonight. It will spread heavy winter precipitation across the Midwest and Northeast from Saturday into Sunday. Crippling snow and ice will affect millions of residents across these regions this weekend!

 

 

Two systems are coming together to form one major winter cyclone that will move from the central Appalachians to the Northeast coast and off of Maritime Canada by Monday morning.  Precipitation will start as all snow across the region initially. Warm air will surge into the coast, however, by early Sunday morning. Snow will change to rain for the immediate coast, cutting into wintry precipitation totals for cities like New York. However, the northern suburbs will see a nasty mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow. The graphic below shows the probability of icing over 0.25 inch (6 mm).

 

 

 

For areas a bit further inland, precipitation will remain mostly or all snow. As you can see from the map below, there is a large area of the interior Northeast very likely to see accumulations in excess of a foot (30 cm). Some spots in the mountains could see totals of 24-30 inches (60-75 cm)! The heavy snow will be accompanied by gusty winds, leading to dangerous blizzard conditions with near-zero visibilities and drifts of several feet.

 

 

This winter storm is on the leading edge of frigid Arctic air, the coldest air of the season by far. Morning lows on Monday will be below zero over much of the Northeast. Gusty winds will continue, leading to life-threatening wind chills of -15 to -30 deg F. Forecast graphics included in this article come courtesy of the hard-working meteorologists of the NWS and WPC.