Category: Posts EN

Tropical Cyclone Oma Threatens Eastern Australia Late Week!

Written by Team Morecast

 

Massive Cyclone Oma has spent the last several days sideswiping the islands of Vanuatu and New Caledonia. A large area of open ocean is in the storm’s immediate path. Unfortunately, mainland Australia could be on the target list for late this week. Residents from northeast New South Wales to coastal Queensland should be vigilant.

 

 

Oma is a very large storm generating large waves and higher tides that are already causing significant beach erosion and coastal flooding along the east coast of Australia. The cyclone will continue to move slowly southwest over the next few days. The models diverge, however, as we approach this weekend. Weak steering winds aloft mean a number of different potential tracks. Some models take the storm southeast and back out to sea. Others move it northeast, paralleling coastal Queensland, while others threaten southeast QLD with a landfall (see graphic below).

 

 

Another uncertainty is the intensity of the storm. Water temperatures in the storm’s path are a bit cool to support a major cyclone and some weakening is likely. However, Oma could also become a hybrid tropical/non-tropical system that would spread potentially damaging winds over a larger area. Even the most optimistic offshore model solutions now bring significant weather to the coast. Winds will be on increase for the outer islands and capes as early as Thursday night with flooding rainfall likely by this weekend. We’ll have additional updates in the next few days as this dangerous situation unfolds! Lead photo courtesy flickr user Ana Rodriguez Carrington

Cyclone Oma To Brush Past New Caledonia, A Distant Threat for Mainland Australia

Written by Team Morecast

 

Tropical Cyclone Oma has been steadily strengthening today as it moves slowly over the eastern Coral Sea. Over the next few days, it will be skirting past Vanuatu and New Caledonia, lashing those islands with gusty winds and locally heavy rain. Looking further ahead to next week, we can’t rule out some significant impacts for eastern Australia.

 

 

Model guidance carries the storm southwest and eventually south over the Coral Sea in the next several days. Most of the models continue the turn to the southeast towards the open ocean. However, a few models track the cyclone closer to the Australian coast. At this time, this solution is considered unlikely but not out of the realm of possibility. Water temperatures off the eastern Australian coast don’t support a major cyclone, but significant impacts can still occur with a weakening storm.

 

 

Even if the cyclone stays well offshore, coastal eastern Australia could still see noticeable effects next week. High waves and heavy surf can occur thousands of kilometers from a cyclone. Gusty winds are also likely for the outer islands and exposed capes. Of course, a closer pass from the cyclone would mean more dangerous hazards. We’ll keep a close eye on the trends.

Thundery Ice Storm Causing Major Travel Dangers in the Plains!

Written by Team Morecast

 

You might expect to see a radar/lightning map like the one below in April or May in the Plains. Numerous storms are moving through the the corridor from Kansas and Oklahoma into Missouri and Arkansas. Some of these storms are strong to severe, even tornado-capable in isolated cases. However, thanks to a strong Arctic air mass draped across the area, the most widespread and dangerous hazard into Thursday will be ice accumulation.

 

 

The Arctic air mass that has creeped south into the Central Plains is very shallow. Not far above the surface, temperatures are much warmer, well above freezing. The map below shows the freezing line not only at the surface (in blue) but at 5,000 feet (in purple). In between these lines, rain is falling into surface temperatures below freezing, in some areas well below freezing in the teens and lower 20s. The rain is thus freezing at it reaches the surface, creating a dangerous glaze of ice. Some locations within the pink shading will see ice accumulation up to 0.5 inch through midday Thursday. Travel will be quite dangerous and should be avoided if at all possible. Scattered power outages will also be a threat as ice-laden tree branches and power lines come down. Lead photo courtesy flickr contributor Alan Light.

 

Much of Townsville, Queensland Under Water Thanks to Two Meters of Rain!

Written by Team Morecast

 

Monsoonal rainfall persisted over the weekend and into Monday over the central coast of Queensland. Some stations in the Townsville region have reported over two meters of rainfall in the past 10 days. This prodigious rainfall has put local rivers in major and even record flooding stages. Urgently required water releases from upstream dams have sent floodwaters rolling into Townsville, inundating much of the city!

 

 

 

Rainfall amounts have exceeded 2,000 mm for some stations near Townsville in the past 7-10 days. The station at the head of the Bluewater River is the leader so far at 2,338 mm since 27-Jan. Many highways into and out of Townsville are underwater with local grocery stores empty of food. Fortunately, the Bruce Highway reopened Tuesday morning, allowing fresh supplies to be transported in. Thousands of residents have been forced out of their homes and into emergency shelters. Officials have even warned residents to watch for wildlife like snakes and crocodiles displaced by the floodwaters (see the video above). Sadly, the bodies of two men who were missing for days were found in a flooded storm drain.

 

 

There is good news on the horizon if you squint hard enough. The stationary monsoon low responsible for the rain has finally started to move slowly northeast. Over the next few days it will shift across northern Queensland. The band of rain that has been pounding Townsville for more than a week is likewise on the move. Coastal areas to the south from Bowen to Mackay will be under the gun through the end of the week. Additional rains of 300-600 mm are generally expected in this area, but a few locations will see higher amounts up to 700-800 mm. By this weekend, the entire system will move off into the Coral Sea, gradually ending the flooding threat across the region. The process of recovery will take much longer, however. Lead photo courtesy flickr contributor Tatters.