Deadly Two-Week Tornado Outbreak Across the Central USA!

 

A pattern of rich, warm Gulf moisture surging into an area of strong upper level winds over the Plains and Midwest has persisted since mid-May. The result has been waves of severe storms developing on a daily basis, hammering the same regions time and time again. These severe cells have put down over 200 tornadoes in the past two weeks.

 

 

The record for consecutive days with at least eight tornado reports was broken on May 28th. More tornadic storms on Wednesday (29-May) extended the record to 13 days. Of these tornadoes, 47 have been classified as EF-2 intensity after careful analysis by National Weather Service meteorologists. The EF (Enhanced Fujita) scale is based on the nature and severity of the damage the tornado causes. Those rated EF-2 and EF-3 are considered “strong” tornadoes, while EF-4 and EF-5 rated twisters are classified as “violent”. Only one tornado so far in the outbreak has been rated EF-4, the one that leveled Linwood, Kansas on Tuesday (28-May). However, even EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes produce devastating wind speeds of 111-165 mph (180-265 kph)!

 

 

 

This outbreak has been historic not only for its persistence, but for the major population centers that have been directly impacted. Over the past few weeks the following cities have been hit by EF-3 storms:

  • Jefferson City, MO (pop 42,838) on 22-May
  • Dayton, OH (pop 140,640) on 27-May
  • Lawrence, KS (pop 96,892) on 28-May

The Jefferson City and Dayton tornadoes were made all the more dangerous by the fact that they struck late in the evening, potentially catching some residents asleep and off-guard. Damage estimates are still being tallied, but costs will likely run at least into the tens of millions of dollars. One saving grace has been that warnings have been timely and accurate from the National Weather Service. As a result, despite the devastation to homes and businesses, relatively few lives have been lost, likely less than ten for the entire outbreak.

Worst Flooding in Recent History to Inundate Parts of Oklahoma & Arkansas!

 

Widespread, record-threatening rainfall has hammered the Plains and Mississippi Valley in the past several weeks. Totals of more than 20 inches (500 mm) have been recorded in parts of Kansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma, at least six times the norm (see map below). The pattern is also responsible for the deadly tornadoes from the Plains to the Midwest.

 

 

In order to relieve pressure on the Keystone Dam just west of Tulsa, officials Monday increased flood output to 275,000 cubic feet per second (CFS). That’s nearly 8 million liters per second! This tremendous release is causing severe flooding downstream. The Arkansas River at Tulsa is expected to reach 23 feet (7 m), the second highest depth ever reached. Flooding of numerous homes and businesses will occur, especially on the south side of the Tulsa metro.

 

 

Just east and downstream from Tulsa the Arkansas River joins the Verdigris and Neosho Rivers (see map above). Many gauges on these two rivers are also in the major flood category. The additional water from these swollen tributaries will make for record-shattering floods downstream towards Van Buren, Arkansas and beyond. The previous record gauge level there is expected to be surpassed by more than four feet! In fact, every gauge downstream from Ft. Smith to Little Rock will see record-setting crests in the next several days. Lead photo courtesy Wikipedia user Jill Carlson.

 

 

Long-Lived Tornado Lashes Three States Wednesday Night!

 

The active week of severe weather continued on Wednesday and Thursday with more tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. The total tally of tornado reports for the week is up to 130 and still counting! One tornadic supercell was particularly long-lived, dropping killer tornadoes from northeast Oklahoma through southeast Kansas and across central Missouri Wednesday evening.

 

 

 

The storm in question developed early Wednesday evening just north of Tulsa. Its first tornado was observed just before 8 pm CT near Welch, OK. Initially it was a relatively weak twister that soon clipped far southeastern Kansas. The storm gained strength as it crossed into southwest Missouri, however. National Weather Service employees found category three damage on the Enhanced Fujita (EF) scale between Carl Junction and Golden City, MO. That’s consistent with wind speeds of 140-160 mph (230-260 kph)! The tornado claimed three lives in Golden City on Wednesday. Coincidentally, it was the eighth anniversary of the infamous EF-5 twister that took 160 lives in nearby Joplin.

 

 

The supercell weakened somewhat for a few hours as it rolled towards central Missouri. However, ominous signs of increasing rotation began to appear on radar after 11 pm as the storm approached the state capital of Jefferson City. Sure enough, another monster tornado soon developed, ripping across eastern and southern portions of the city. Banks, homes, businesses, and schools were all destroyed with almost a dozen serious injuries, although fortunately no deaths. Survey teams have found damage of high-end EF-3 rating so far with analysis continuing.

 

 

Widespread Flooding Across the Plains & Mississippi River Valley!

 

Weeks of stormy weather over the Plains and Mississippi Valley were punctuated by a major severe outbreak in the past three days. While deadly tornadoes and gigantic hail grab headlines, a much larger segment of the region’s population is being hammered by severe flooding.

 

 

The wet pattern has been in place for several weeks. Rainfall has been 2-4 times the normal amounts from late April into May from Kansas to Texas and into portions of Arkansas and Louisiana. This tremendous amount of water has pushed dozens of major rivers above flood stage, in some cases approaching record values. Hundreds of square miles of floodplain have been inundated. Numerous homes and businesses are under water or destroyed by the swollen, raging rivers. Some small rural communities have been forced to evacuate their entire towns.

 

 

 

Unfortunately, the pattern will remain favorable for heavy rains in this region through the rest of the month. This will further hamper efforts by farmers to start planting. Last year at this time farmers in Illinois had planted almost 90% of the season’s corn crop; so far this year, only 11% is in the ground yet. After early to mid-June, the planting window will start to close. That’s additional anxiety for farmers already troubled by trade tensions with China and the lowest crop prices in more than a decade.