Category: Posts EN

Worst Flooding in Recent History to Inundate Parts of Oklahoma & Arkansas!

Written by Team Morecast

 

Widespread, record-threatening rainfall has hammered the Plains and Mississippi Valley in the past several weeks. Totals of more than 20 inches (500 mm) have been recorded in parts of Kansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma, at least six times the norm (see map below). The pattern is also responsible for the deadly tornadoes from the Plains to the Midwest.

 

 

In order to relieve pressure on the Keystone Dam just west of Tulsa, officials Monday increased flood output to 275,000 cubic feet per second (CFS). That’s nearly 8 million liters per second! This tremendous release is causing severe flooding downstream. The Arkansas River at Tulsa is expected to reach 23 feet (7 m), the second highest depth ever reached. Flooding of numerous homes and businesses will occur, especially on the south side of the Tulsa metro.

 

 

Just east and downstream from Tulsa the Arkansas River joins the Verdigris and Neosho Rivers (see map above). Many gauges on these two rivers are also in the major flood category. The additional water from these swollen tributaries will make for record-shattering floods downstream towards Van Buren, Arkansas and beyond. The previous record gauge level there is expected to be surpassed by more than four feet! In fact, every gauge downstream from Ft. Smith to Little Rock will see record-setting crests in the next several days. Lead photo courtesy Wikipedia user Jill Carlson.

 

 

Long-Lived Tornado Lashes Three States Wednesday Night!

Written by Team Morecast

 

The active week of severe weather continued on Wednesday and Thursday with more tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. The total tally of tornado reports for the week is up to 130 and still counting! One tornadic supercell was particularly long-lived, dropping killer tornadoes from northeast Oklahoma through southeast Kansas and across central Missouri Wednesday evening.

 

 

 

The storm in question developed early Wednesday evening just north of Tulsa. Its first tornado was observed just before 8 pm CT near Welch, OK. Initially it was a relatively weak twister that soon clipped far southeastern Kansas. The storm gained strength as it crossed into southwest Missouri, however. National Weather Service employees found category three damage on the Enhanced Fujita (EF) scale between Carl Junction and Golden City, MO. That’s consistent with wind speeds of 140-160 mph (230-260 kph)! The tornado claimed three lives in Golden City on Wednesday. Coincidentally, it was the eighth anniversary of the infamous EF-5 twister that took 160 lives in nearby Joplin.

 

 

The supercell weakened somewhat for a few hours as it rolled towards central Missouri. However, ominous signs of increasing rotation began to appear on radar after 11 pm as the storm approached the state capital of Jefferson City. Sure enough, another monster tornado soon developed, ripping across eastern and southern portions of the city. Banks, homes, businesses, and schools were all destroyed with almost a dozen serious injuries, although fortunately no deaths. Survey teams have found damage of high-end EF-3 rating so far with analysis continuing.

 

 

Widespread Flooding Across the Plains & Mississippi River Valley!

Written by Team Morecast

 

Weeks of stormy weather over the Plains and Mississippi Valley were punctuated by a major severe outbreak in the past three days. While deadly tornadoes and gigantic hail grab headlines, a much larger segment of the region’s population is being hammered by severe flooding.

 

 

The wet pattern has been in place for several weeks. Rainfall has been 2-4 times the normal amounts from late April into May from Kansas to Texas and into portions of Arkansas and Louisiana. This tremendous amount of water has pushed dozens of major rivers above flood stage, in some cases approaching record values. Hundreds of square miles of floodplain have been inundated. Numerous homes and businesses are under water or destroyed by the swollen, raging rivers. Some small rural communities have been forced to evacuate their entire towns.

 

 

 

Unfortunately, the pattern will remain favorable for heavy rains in this region through the rest of the month. This will further hamper efforts by farmers to start planting. Last year at this time farmers in Illinois had planted almost 90% of the season’s corn crop; so far this year, only 11% is in the ground yet. After early to mid-June, the planting window will start to close. That’s additional anxiety for farmers already troubled by trade tensions with China and the lowest crop prices in more than a decade.

Severe Storms Rip Across the Plains Monday to Early Tuesday!

Written by Team Morecast

 

An unusually strong upper level low spun out of the Southern Rockies on Monday. It encountered plenty of warm Gulf moisture over the Southern Plains, setting the stage for a classic spring severe storm outbreak.

 

 

The ingredients were all there for dangerous severe cells. Strong upper level winds rolled over a very warm, moist near-surface environment. There was also plenty of cyclonic spin to help generate supercells capable of producing tornadoes and giant hail. Conditions were so favorable, in fact, that the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued a rare “high-risk” severe outlook for the day, the first time in two years that such a forecast has been warranted.

 

 

A few isolated severe cells flared during the morning hours, but the outbreak really accelerated in the mid-afternoon. Numerous reports of hail larger than two inches (five cm) were reported, including a stone that was 5.5 inches wide (11 cm) at Wellington, TX! Wind gusts with the stronger squalls reached 70-90 mph (110-140 kph). Many of the cells also produced tornadoes well into the overnight hours, one of the most dangerous weather situations. A tornado moved very close to Tulsa International Airport just past 6:30 am Tuesday morning, causing some damage to the neighboring zoo. Officials quickly reassured concerned citizens that no animals were harmed!

 

 

Persistent heavy rains also created flooding problems across portions of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri that are still ongoing as of Tuesday evening. Much of the region has seen 4-8 inch (100-200 mm) rains since Monday morning. The latest round of heavy rains have contributed to totals 5-6 times higher than normal so far in May. Numerous road closures and emergency water rescues were necessary. Record-breaking river flooding is likely in the coming days as runoff flows into larger streams and rivers.