Category: Posts EN

Major Hurricane Barbara Spins Across the Eastern Pacific; Atlantic Basin Still Quiet

Written by Team Morecast

 

Residents along the Pacific and Atlantic coasts enjoyed a very quiet beginning to the 2019 hurricane season. June, the first month of the official hurricane season, is typically quiet anyway. However, this will be the first year since 2009 featuring no storm activity in the first five weeks of the season. It’s a different story in the eastern Pacific, though.

A tropical depression developed on Sunday over the open waters of the eastern Pacific and was named Barbara by the afternoon. Barbara has steadily gained strength and is now a major hurricane, producing sustained winds to 130 mph ( kph). That’s a potentially very dangerous storm. Fortunately Barbara is not projected to affect any land masses. The storm will continue to move west and northwest, eventually dissipating late this weekend into early next week.

 

 

No tropical activity has been detected in the Atlantic basin since Subtropical Storm Andrea’s brief existence in May. The ENSO (El Nino – Southern Oscillation) remains in the positive mode (see graphic above). In other words, warmer-than-normal water temperatures over the western Pacific are resulting in stronger winds aloft. These winds act to disrupt developing tropical cyclones over the Atlantic basin. However, the ENSO is only weakly positive, and is forecast to remain that way. In addition, water temperatures are quite warm (see map below), which could provide fuel for cyclones later in the season.

 

Windy Storms Roll Across Portions of the Plains, Potentially a Derecho Pattern

Written by Team Morecast

 

Heat and humidity lingering into the evening hours on Thursday over the Central Plains provided plenty of fuel for severe storms. These storms became a long-lived squall line that has produced damaging winds from Nebraska and Kansas to Illinois.

 

 

 

“Derecho” is the name given to a squall line that produces 60 mph (100 kph) winds continuously for a period of at least six hours. Meteorologists typically observe a handful every year, mainly during the summer. The radar signature of the mature derecho is known as a “bow” for its resemblance to the standard archery equipment (see radar imagery above). Some of the most destructive severe weather episodes in the U.S. have been derechos. The derecho that slammed the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic in July 2012 cost nearly $3 billion in damages!

 

 

The current squall line easily qualifies as a derecho in terms of wind damage reports and duration (see map above). The squall line spun together on Thursday evening along the western Kansas-Nebraska border. Within the first hour or two it was producing wind gusts commonly in the 80-100 mph (130-160 kph) range. Numerous trees were uprooted and power poles were snapped like twigs. As the night wore on, the derecho lost some energy, but was still producing sporadic reports of damage with gusts 60-70 mph (100-115 kph). These continued through the morning hours. As of Friday mid-afternoon, the line was still tracking through southern Illinois with a damaging wind potential headed for portions of Kentucky and Tennessee. The environment remains favorable for additional squall lines to develop tonight in the Plains and Midwest.

Delayed Monsoon Intensifies Indian Heat Wave & Water Crisis

Written by Team Morecast

 

After a brief reprieve, more hot, dry weather is building across parts of central and northwest India. This new heat wave will only exacerbate severe drought conditions and water shortages. Some cities are being forced to truck water in from other locales due to water reservoirs being nearly bone-dry, a tremendously expensive operation.

 

 

Cyclone Vayu clipped the western part of India last week. Fortunately, the coast was spared the worst winds and surge flooding. Parts of the country even received welcome rain and cooler temperatures. However, the cyclone also sapped the developing monsoon trough of moisture and energy. The result is an already-delayed monsoon stalling in the far southern and eastern portions of the country. As of 20-June, only about 10-15% of the country has seen the onset of the monsoon, compared to two-thirds normally by this time (see map above). While the monsoon is beginning to creep northwesterly again, it will be several weeks yet before it reaches the west and northwest regions. For a largely agrarian country that receives 70% of its rainfall from the monsoon, the delay is devastating.

 

 

 

The delay may be partially due to the ingoing El Nino, a pattern of warming waters in the Pacific that has global impacts on weather. However, scientists also fear a weaker and more unpredictable monsoon due to climate change. Some regions have seen successive weak monsoons, combined with human-driven factors, result in severely depleted water supplies. Chennai, the sixth-largest city in India, home to more than 4.5 million people, is one such city. Officials there have had to employ 400 tanker trucks to deliver thousands of cubic feet of water to local reservoirs which are otherwise spent. But a nation-wide monsoonal delay reduces the ability of neighboring regions to help, creating a crisis everywhere.

Tropical Cyclone and Sizzling Heat Pose Different but Deadly Threats to India!

Written by Team Morecast

 

Much of India has been boiling in record-breaking heat since the end of May thanks to a delayed monsoon. Now a cyclone has spun up over the Arabian Sea, threatening the western state of Gujarat.

 

 

Cyclone Vayu developed on 10-June over the southeast Arabian Sea and has been moving steadily north since. Paralleling the western coast of India, the cyclone is small but has gained strength. It’s now producing destructive winds in excess of 150 kph along with flooding rains and storm surge. These deadly threats prompted government officials to evacuate millions of residents along the coast of Gujarat, a state that rarely sees cyclones of this intensity. It also comes only two months after Cyclone Fani slammed into portions of eastern India and Bangladesh, killing nearly 100 people. Fortunately, the latest models suggest that Vayu will stay off the coast with the worst impacts over open waters.

 

A crippling heatwave is continuing to roast nearly two thirds of India this week, as heat records have been falling by the wayside. This heatwave, which began in the middle of May, has been responsible for 36 deaths so far, and has led to numerous conflicts over water shortages. These conflicts have been linked to people getting beaten, stabbed, and even killed as sources of water have become scarce.

On June 2, the city of Churu reached 50.8 ΒΊC, which is just shy of the all time record high recorded in India of 51. Delhi hit a high of 48 on June 10th, becoming the highest temperature ever recorded in that city for the month of June.

 

 

 

The intensity of the heatwave is not the only aspect of it that is record breaking, but its length is also on track to break a record. As it currently stands, the heatwave’s length is at 32 days, but the record longest heatwave recorded is 33 days. This record is likely to be broken in the next few days as no signs of a cool down are in the forecast.