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Hurricane Dorian slowly gained strength on Thursday over the warm open Atlantic waters. A turn to the west and additional intensification is expected on Friday. By late Saturday into Sunday, Dorian could be a major hurricane tearing through the northern Bahamas with eastern Florida in its sights!

Dorian is now a Category Two hurricane as of Thursday evening with sustained winds up to 105 mph. The hurricane is moving northwest, but model guidance is in very good agreement that a high pressure ridge building north of the storm will turn Dorian to the west in the next few days. Steering currents are now expected to weaken heading into this weekend. Dorian will slow down as it approaches the northern Bahamas, meaning any eastern Florida landfall will be somewhat delayed. The prime landfall window now looks to be later Monday afternoon to early Tuesday. The south or central east coast of Florida continues to be the main target of most models, although locations up as far north as Georgia certainly aren’t out of the woods.

Models continue to suggest steady intensification to major hurricane status by Friday or Saturday. That spells the potential for massive destruction at and near the landfall point. Destructive winds will fell most trees and some structures, knocking out power for weeks. A deadly storm surge will inundate the coast, unfortunately magnified by enhanced tidal flooding due to the new moon. Indeed, there will likely be serious coastal flooding as far north as the Carolinas despite the distance from Dorian’s landfall. The slower storm motion will also mean a greater threat of torrential rainfall (see map above). Some locations will see 15-20+ inches of rain next week, leading to widespread flash and river flooding. Suffice to say, this is an extremely dangerous situation! Residents across the Florida peninsula should pay very close attention to local emergency broadcasts and be prepared to evacuate if so ordered.

Dorian has finally overcome the dry air that was hampering the system previously and strengthened to hurricane status on Wednesday morning. The cyclone sidestepped Puerto Rico, but hammered the U.S. Virgin Islands with wind gusts reported up to 100 mph (see tweet below). Now Dorian is moving into the open Atlantic with plenty of warm water and light winds ahead of it. Additional strengthening is likely, and a projected turn to the west could bring a major hurricane into the southeast U.S. within a matter of days!

💨It’s getting worse here in St Thomas I would expect friends in Puerto Rico would encounter this soon @weatherchannel @wunderground #TropicalStormDorian #usvi #caribbean #weather pic.twitter.com/84RCcfQApV

— OM 🇻🇮🇻🇬 (@OldMangoCompany) August 28, 2019

Hurricane Dorian has been moving north of the expected track since Tuesday. As a result, it has missed the high terrain of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola that many hoped would disrupt and weaken the circulation. Intensification has taken place instead, and this process will likely continue as Dorian moves into anomalously warm water over the western Atlantic (see map above). Model guidance suggests a high likelihood that Dorian will achieve major (Category Three) hurricane status in the next few days. Models also continue to suggest that Dorian will turn west-northwest as a ridge of high pressure builds to the north. That makes a landfall along the southeast U.S. coast more likely. At this time, central Florida looks like the highest risk. However, locations from south Florida to the coastal Carolinas can’t let their guard down. Where the landfall occurs, expect destructive winds, flooding rains, and a deadly storm surge. Landfall is projected to occur sometime late Sunday into early Monday.

Tropical Storm Dorian is moving through the Windward Islands tonight, the eastern gateway to the Caribbean Sea. Reports indicate the storm passed very close to Barbados. Dorian has been slowly gaining strength and could be a hurricane as it moves across the northeastern Caribbean on Tuesday. Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic stand in the storm’s path next on Wednesday into Thursday. Eyes in the Bahamas and Florida are on the storm as well for late this week into the weekend.

Dorian is move through an environment that is generally favorable for continued intensification. The one factor holding the storm back thus far has been drying air intruding at the upper levels, restraining the persistent, vigorous convection that allows for rapid intensification. Looking further ahead, interaction of the circulation with the mountainous terrain of Puerto Rico and especially Hispaniola could also cause weakening in the mid-week time frame. However, reduction in dry air aloft and/or a glancing blow with the mountains would allow for more intensification. Residents in the areas along Dorian’s path should prepare for destructive winds, flooding rains, and a damaging storm surge, while hoping that the weaker scenario plays out.

Dorian is expected to maintain a fairly steady west-northwest to northwesterly path through the rest of the week. Hurricane track forecasting is notoriously unreliable beyond the 3-5 day time frame. However, many of the long-range models suggest the Bahamas and then Florida as potential targets late this week into the weekend. Lead photo courtesy Flickr contributor Beau Considine.