Category: Posts EN

Dorian Now a Hurricane, Major Landfall Threat for the Southeast USA!

Written by Team Morecast

 

Dorian has finally overcome the dry air that was hampering the system previously and strengthened to hurricane status on Wednesday morning. The cyclone sidestepped Puerto Rico, but hammered the U.S. Virgin Islands with wind gusts reported up to 100 mph (see tweet below). Now Dorian is moving into the open Atlantic with plenty of warm water and light winds ahead of it. Additional strengthening is likely, and a projected turn to the west could bring a major hurricane into the southeast U.S. within a matter of days!

 

 

 

Hurricane Dorian has been moving north of the expected track since Tuesday. As a result, it has missed the high terrain of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola that many hoped would disrupt and weaken the circulation. Intensification has taken place instead, and this process will likely continue as Dorian moves into anomalously warm water over the western Atlantic (see map above). Model guidance suggests a high likelihood that Dorian will achieve major (Category Three) hurricane status in the next few days. Models also continue to suggest that Dorian will turn west-northwest as a ridge of high pressure builds to the north. That makes a landfall along the southeast U.S. coast more likely. At this time, central Florida looks like the highest risk. However, locations from south Florida to the coastal Carolinas can’t let their guard down. Where the landfall occurs, expect destructive winds, flooding rains, and a deadly storm surge. Landfall is projected to occur sometime late Sunday into early Monday.

Dorian Headed For Puerto Rico; Threat Increasing for Mainland USA!

Written by Team Morecast

 

Tropical Storm Dorian has maintained strength on Tuesday, passing through the Leeward and Windward Islands early this morning (see tweet below). Puerto Rico now looks to be threatened by a direct landfall as the cyclone has taken a more northerly course. A state of emergency has been declared for the island. After that, the storm looks to enter an area of open ocean with conditions ripe for intensification. The risk of a significant impact in the southeastern U.S. is increasing!

 

 

Islands in the eastern Caribbean saw high winds and very heavy rainfall as the storm moved through Monday night and Tuesday morning. However, persistent dry air at the mid- and upper levels has continued to hinder Dorian from intensification. Fortunately for residents of Puerto Rico and nearby islands, this dry air along with increasing interaction with mountainous terrain on the larger islands will likely prohibit significant strengthening until the storm clears the region. Major impacts are still likely, especially heavy, flooding rainfall in the mountains of central and southern Puerto Rico. The worst impacts will probably be felt on Puerto Rico from midday Wednesday into the overnight, with conditions improving Thursday morning.

 

 

Dorian will move into the eastern Atlantic for the late week. Conditions there will be better for intensification, including warm ocean waters, light shear, and more moist air aloft. Model guidance is starting to suggest the cyclone will intensify significantly and turn more towards the west-northwest. Model reliability decreases significantly in the 4-5 day time frame, but residents of the southeast U.S. should monitor the storm closely and make sure their hurricane plans are ready to be implemented if necessary.

 

Tropical Storm Dorian Menacing the Eastern Caribbean

Written by Team Morecast

 

Tropical Storm Dorian is moving through the Windward Islands tonight, the eastern gateway to the Caribbean Sea. Reports indicate the storm passed very close to Barbados. Dorian has been slowly gaining strength and could be a hurricane as it moves across the northeastern Caribbean on Tuesday. Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic stand in the storm’s path next on Wednesday into Thursday. Eyes in the Bahamas and Florida are on the storm as well for late this week into the weekend.

 

 

Dorian is move through an environment that is generally favorable for continued intensification. The one factor holding the storm back thus far has been drying air intruding at the upper levels, restraining the persistent, vigorous convection that allows for rapid intensification. Looking further ahead, interaction of the circulation with the mountainous terrain of Puerto Rico and especially Hispaniola could also cause weakening in the mid-week time frame. However, reduction in dry air aloft and/or a glancing blow with the mountains would allow for more intensification. Residents in the areas along Dorian’s path should prepare for destructive winds, flooding rains, and a damaging storm surge, while hoping that the weaker scenario plays out.

 

 

Dorian is expected to maintain a fairly steady west-northwest to northwesterly path through the rest of the week. Hurricane track forecasting is notoriously unreliable beyond the 3-5 day time frame. However, many of the long-range models suggest the Bahamas and then Florida as potential targets late this week into the weekend. Lead photo courtesy Flickr contributor Beau Considine.

Damaging Winter Wind Storm Rakes Tasmania!

Written by Team Morecast

 

Damaging winds continue to slam much of Tasmania and coastal portions of Victoria and New South Wales. Some of the highest gusts in years have knocked down power lines and torn roofs from homes. Another in the series of powerful cold fronts will sweep across the region later on Wednesday.

 

 

Officials in Tasmania were forced to upgrade emergency response units to their highest alert level on Tuesday after numerous reports of wind damage, including roofs ripped from homes. Boats were torn from their moorings and set adrift at Sandy Bay and Dodges Ferry. The Bureau of Meteorology weather station at Ellerslie Road in Hobart reported a gust to 120 kph, the highest from that site in years. Other stations reported even higher gusts, as high as 148 kph at Maatsuyker Island in the south. Not only the maximum gusts but the persistence of high winds has been extraordinary. The Maatsuyker Island station reported gusts exceeding 100 kph continuously for more than 30 hours!

 

 

The region is experiencing a relative lull as of the time of this writing, but winds will likely increase again on Wednesday evening into the overnight. The strongest winds with this surge could affect coastal eastern Victoria and southern New South Wales with gusts up to 130+ kph. The damaging wind threat will only really subside as we head into Thursday afternoon. Lead photo courtesy flickr contributor Martin Lopatka.