Category: Posts EN

 

Thanks to very warm ocean waters and light winds aloft, Hurricane Dorian has continued to strengthen Friday. Sustained winds have increased to 130 mph (210 kph), making Dorian a major Category Four hurricane. Steering winds have also changed direction as anticipated, ominously pushing the cyclone from the northwest more to the west. Dorian is now taking dead aim at the northern Bahamas, and Florida beyond.

 

 

The satellite animation above shows how Dorian has developed a clear, round eye, the unmistakable sign of a healthy, intense hurricane. Hurricane hunter aircraft recently found much stronger winds than previously analyzed in the eyewall, prompting a significant upgrade in intensity estimates. There’s no reason to think Dorian will weaken in any significant way over the next few days. By later on Sunday, the northern Bahama Islands will be getting battered, and hurricane warnings are already in effect there.

 

 

 

Steering winds weaken significantly later this weekend into early next week, and Dorian is expected to slow down drastically. A system far to the northwest will likely start to pull Dorian slowly to the north at some point next week. The vital question is whether this will happen before or after a potential landfall in eastern Florida. Many models wait till the storm is just inland to turn north, but the most recent trends suggest the storm could turn very close to and move north along the coast. Some even indicate no landfall at all, moving the storm basically parallel to the southeast coast all the way up to the Carolinas. Such a scenario would expose a long stretch of the coast to major impacts. However, the storm’s worst winds and surge might remain offshore, since the hurricane’s most intense side is to the right (or east in the case of a storm moving north like Dorian).

 

 

There is still some time to watch and hope that the least destructive scenario is realized. In the meantime, however, residents from south Florida all the way up to the coastal Carolinas should prepare for the worst. Heed the messages coming from local emergency management and be ready to evacuate if necessary. Evacuations have already been ordered for areas of eastern Florida, and more may be needed in the coming days.

 

Hurricane Dorian slowly gained strength on Thursday over the warm open Atlantic waters. A turn to the west and additional intensification is expected on Friday. By late Saturday into Sunday, Dorian could be a major hurricane tearing through the northern Bahamas with eastern Florida in its sights!

 

 

Dorian is now a Category Two hurricane as of Thursday evening with sustained winds up to 105 mph. The hurricane is moving northwest, but model guidance is in very good agreement that a high pressure ridge building north of the storm will turn Dorian to the west in the next few days. Steering currents are now expected to weaken heading into this weekend. Dorian will slow down as it approaches the northern Bahamas, meaning any eastern Florida landfall will be somewhat delayed. The prime landfall window now looks to be later Monday afternoon to early Tuesday. The south or central east coast of Florida continues to be the main target of most models, although locations up as far north as Georgia certainly aren’t out of the woods.

 

 

Models continue to suggest steady intensification to major hurricane status by Friday or Saturday. That spells the potential for massive destruction at and near the landfall point. Destructive winds will fell most trees and some structures, knocking out power for weeks. A deadly storm surge will inundate the coast, unfortunately magnified by enhanced tidal flooding due to the new moon. Indeed, there will likely be serious coastal flooding as far north as the Carolinas despite the distance from Dorian’s landfall. The slower storm motion will also mean a greater threat of torrential rainfall (see map above). Some locations will see 15-20+ inches of rain next week, leading to widespread flash and river flooding. Suffice to say, this is an extremely dangerous situation! Residents across the Florida peninsula should pay very close attention to local emergency broadcasts and be prepared to evacuate if so ordered.

 

Dorian has finally overcome the dry air that was hampering the system previously and strengthened to hurricane status on Wednesday morning. The cyclone sidestepped Puerto Rico, but hammered the U.S. Virgin Islands with wind gusts reported up to 100 mph (see tweet below). Now Dorian is moving into the open Atlantic with plenty of warm water and light winds ahead of it. Additional strengthening is likely, and a projected turn to the west could bring a major hurricane into the southeast U.S. within a matter of days!

 

💨It’s getting worse here in St Thomas I would expect friends in Puerto Rico would encounter this soon @weatherchannel @wunderground #TropicalStormDorian #usvi #caribbean #weather pic.twitter.com/84RCcfQApV

— OM 🇻🇮🇻🇬 (@OldMangoCompany) August 28, 2019

 

 

Hurricane Dorian has been moving north of the expected track since Tuesday. As a result, it has missed the high terrain of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola that many hoped would disrupt and weaken the circulation. Intensification has taken place instead, and this process will likely continue as Dorian moves into anomalously warm water over the western Atlantic (see map above). Model guidance suggests a high likelihood that Dorian will achieve major (Category Three) hurricane status in the next few days. Models also continue to suggest that Dorian will turn west-northwest as a ridge of high pressure builds to the north. That makes a landfall along the southeast U.S. coast more likely. At this time, central Florida looks like the highest risk. However, locations from south Florida to the coastal Carolinas can’t let their guard down. Where the landfall occurs, expect destructive winds, flooding rains, and a deadly storm surge. Landfall is projected to occur sometime late Sunday into early Monday.