Category: Posts EN

California Wildfire Update: Danger Shifting South to the L.A. Basin!

Written by Team Morecast

 

The massive Kincade fire continues to burn tens of thousands of acres in the Sonoma wine country just north of San Francisco, California. Thousands of residents have been evacuated, while hundreds of thousands of others face days-long power outages. Now high winds and dry heat are expected to make for extremely hazardous fire conditions further south, in the Los Angeles basin, for Wednesday.

 

 

The Kincade fire has consumed more than 75,000 acres (300 square km) in Sonoma County since it ignited late last week, so large that it can be seen easily from space (see image at top). Periodic high winds have prevented a firefighting force of thousands from gaining the upper hand. As of Tuesday, only 15% of the fire has been controlled. In an effort to prevent additional fires from igniting, regional supplier PG&E has cut power to nearly 1,000,000 customers in central California. These controlled blackouts help reduce the threat of live wires downed by the high winds sparking new flames. But the blackouts have added to criticism of the company already forced into bankruptcy due to deadly wildfires for which they were found responsible in 2017-18. Fortunately for central California, winds have begun to diminish and temperatures are falling towards winter-like values.

 

 

Unfortunately, the same cannot be said further south towards the L.A. Basin. Months with no measurable rainfall have left plenty of dry scrub brush, ideal fuel for potential wildfires. The notorious Santa Ana winds are expected to blow on Wednesday with gusts approaching 60-80 mph (100-130 kph) in some spots (see animation above). Any stray fire will rapidly spread out of control in these conditions, straining already over-stretched firefighting resources. Already this week a relatively small wildfire threatened the Getty Art Museum and forced the evacuation of thousands, including basketball star LeBron James and actor Arnold Schwarzenegger. Lead photo courtesy Sentinel satellite data, processed by Pierre Markuse.

Unprecedented Sonoma Wildfires Prompt Nearly A Million Preemptive Power Outages

Written by Team Morecast

 

A recent run of dry, warm weather has helped spark numerous wildfires across northern California. In particular, the Kincade wildfire has burned nearly 26,000 acres in Sonoma County. Now, the highest winds of the season threaten to blow the fire completely out of control on Sunday. Emergency officials have responded by ordering an unprecedented preemptive power outage as well as tens of thousands of evacuations.

 

 

 

Only 10% of the Kincade fire, which has been burning since Wednesday evening, had been contained as of Saturday morning. Winds will increase overnight with gusts of 60 to locally 80 mph (100-130 kph) expected on Sunday. Those winds, combined with abnormally warm temperatures and low humidities, will lead to dangerous conditions. High winds carry flaming embers far ahead of the parent fires to set new areas ablaze. They can also ground aircraft vital to the fire-fighting effort, and make surface firefighting much harder and more dangerous. These winds also blow thick ash and smoke far downwind, leading to hazardous air quality hundreds of miles downwind.

 

 

The Kincade fire is devastating northern portions of the Sonoma Valley, birthplace of the world-renowned California vineyards. Evacuations have been ordered for upwards of 80,000 residents (see graphic above), including the entire cities of Healdsburg and Windsor. Nearly 30,000 homes and businesses will be directly threatened. The preemptive power outage will affect nearly 1,000,000 PG&E households in the region, meaning around two million people will be in the dark. This measure is designed to reduce the threat of downed powerlines with live current sparking new blazes. In fact, there is some speculation that the Kincade fire itself was started by downed wires. Residents who do experience power cutoff should expect to be in the dark for at least two days, possibly more. Lead photo courtesy U.S. Forest Service.

Deadly Tornadoes Strike Sunday Night Across the Southern Plains, Including Metro Dallas!

Written by Team Morecast

 

A severe storm outbreak Sunday night has claimed at least four lives and led to tens of thousands of power outages from Texas through Oklahoma, Arkansas, and southern Missouri. One of the strongest tornadoes, rated an EF3 by National Weather Service survey team, rolled across the north part of Dallas, Texas in the mid-evening hours. Severe damage was reported to homes and businesses as winds up to 140 mph (225 kph) raked the area. The tornado lasted more than 30 minutes, twisting and tearing along a path nearly 15 miles (24 km) long. The clips below give some idea of how terrifying is the prospect of a tornado after dark in a major metro area. Fortunately, timely warnings led to minimal injuries and no reported fatalities in Dallas.

 

 

Sadly, fatalities were reported with straight-line winds up to 90 mph (145 kph) that toppled trees and power lines in Oklahoma and Arkansas. Large hail up to three inches (7.5 cm) in diameter also fell with the stronger cells. In all, the NWS received nearly 300 reports of severe weather across seven states, the busiest severe weather day in more than two months. Lead photo courtesy National Weather Service, DFW.

Tropical Storm Nestor Racing Northeast Towards Florida Panhandle!

Written by Team Morecast

 

Late-season tropical activity has picked up in the Gulf of Mexico with Nestor developing from Thursday into Friday. Strong upper level winds are acting to limit the storm’s intensity and move it quickly northeast. In fact, Nestor will be completely off the Carolina coast by Sunday morning. In the meantime, though, Nestor will produce some heavy rain and gusty winds from Florida through Georgia to the Carolinas.

 

 

As of Friday evening, Nestor is located about 130 miles (210 km) southwest of Panama City, FL. Moderate to heavy rainfall is already spreading over the region (see animation above). The storm is producing sustained winds to 60 mph (100 kph), moving northeast at near 23 mph (37 kph), rather fast for a cyclone. Nestor will remain a strong tropical storm through landfall, now expected to occur early Saturday morning just south of Panama City (see track map below).

 

 

The storm will likely transition to extratropical status shortly after landfall. However, it will still be capable of producing damaging winds and localized flash flooding. The fast forward speed could also enhance the storm surge potential for sections of the Florida Gulf coast, probably the most dangerous threat from this storm. Some locations will see a surge of up to 4-5 feet inundate the coast. Rainfall of three to locally six inches (75-150 mm) will fall over much of the Southeast. Wind gusts of 45-60 mph will combine with rain-weakened soil to knock down numerous trees. Isolated tornadoes will lead to localized areas of heavier damage. Lead photo courtesy Army National Guard, Lt. Zachary West.