Category: Posts EN

Unprecedented Sonoma Wildfires Prompt Nearly A Million Preemptive Power Outages

Written by Team Morecast

 

A recent run of dry, warm weather has helped spark numerous wildfires across northern California. In particular, the Kincade wildfire has burned nearly 26,000 acres in Sonoma County. Now, the highest winds of the season threaten to blow the fire completely out of control on Sunday. Emergency officials have responded by ordering an unprecedented preemptive power outage as well as tens of thousands of evacuations.

 

 

 

Only 10% of the Kincade fire, which has been burning since Wednesday evening, had been contained as of Saturday morning. Winds will increase overnight with gusts of 60 to locally 80 mph (100-130 kph) expected on Sunday. Those winds, combined with abnormally warm temperatures and low humidities, will lead to dangerous conditions. High winds carry flaming embers far ahead of the parent fires to set new areas ablaze. They can also ground aircraft vital to the fire-fighting effort, and make surface firefighting much harder and more dangerous. These winds also blow thick ash and smoke far downwind, leading to hazardous air quality hundreds of miles downwind.

 

 

The Kincade fire is devastating northern portions of the Sonoma Valley, birthplace of the world-renowned California vineyards. Evacuations have been ordered for upwards of 80,000 residents (see graphic above), including the entire cities of Healdsburg and Windsor. Nearly 30,000 homes and businesses will be directly threatened. The preemptive power outage will affect nearly 1,000,000 PG&E households in the region, meaning around two million people will be in the dark. This measure is designed to reduce the threat of downed powerlines with live current sparking new blazes. In fact, there is some speculation that the Kincade fire itself was started by downed wires. Residents who do experience power cutoff should expect to be in the dark for at least two days, possibly more.Ā Lead photo courtesy U.S. Forest Service.

Deadly Tornadoes Strike Sunday Night Across the Southern Plains, Including Metro Dallas!

Written by Team Morecast

 

A severe storm outbreak Sunday night has claimed at least four lives and led to tens of thousands of power outages from Texas through Oklahoma, Arkansas, and southern Missouri. One of the strongest tornadoes, rated an EF3 by National Weather Service survey team, rolled across the north part of Dallas, Texas in the mid-evening hours. Severe damage was reported to homes and businesses as winds up to 140 mph (225 kph) raked the area. The tornado lasted more than 30 minutes, twisting and tearing along a path nearly 15 miles (24 km) long. The clips below give some idea of how terrifying is the prospect of a tornado after dark in a major metro area. Fortunately, timely warnings led to minimal injuries and no reported fatalities in Dallas.

 

 

Sadly, fatalities were reported with straight-line winds up to 90 mph (145 kph) that toppled trees and power lines in Oklahoma and Arkansas. Large hail up to three inches (7.5 cm) in diameter also fell with the stronger cells. In all, the NWS received nearly 300 reports of severe weather across seven states, the busiest severe weather day in more than two months.Ā Lead photo courtesy National Weather Service, DFW.

Tropical Storm Nestor Racing Northeast Towards Florida Panhandle!

Written by Team Morecast

 

Late-season tropical activity has picked up in the Gulf of Mexico with Nestor developing from Thursday into Friday. Strong upper level winds are acting to limit the storm’s intensity and move it quickly northeast. In fact, Nestor will be completely off the Carolina coast by Sunday morning. In the meantime, though, Nestor will produce some heavy rain and gusty winds from Florida through Georgia to the Carolinas.

 

 

As of Friday evening, Nestor is located about 130 miles (210 km) southwest of Panama City, FL. Moderate to heavy rainfall is already spreading over the region (see animation above). The storm is producing sustained winds to 60 mph (100 kph), moving northeast at near 23 mph (37 kph), rather fast for a cyclone. Nestor will remain a strong tropical storm through landfall, now expected to occur early Saturday morning just south of Panama City (see track map below).

 

 

The storm will likely transition to extratropical status shortly after landfall. However, it will still be capable of producing damaging winds and localized flash flooding. The fast forward speed could also enhance the storm surge potential for sections of the Florida Gulf coast, probably the most dangerous threat from this storm. Some locations will see a surge of up to 4-5 feet inundate the coast. Rainfall of three to locally six inches (75-150 mm) will fall over much of the Southeast. Wind gusts of 45-60 mph will combine with rain-weakened soil to knock down numerous trees. Isolated tornadoes will lead to localized areas of heavier damage.Ā Lead photo courtesy Army National Guard, Lt. Zachary West.

Super Typhoon Hagibis Barrels Over the Marianas, Could Threaten Japan This Weekend!

Written by Team Morecast

 

Typhoon Hagibis, just a tropical storm early Monday, underwent a period of rapid intensification through early Tuesday. In fact, Hagibis gained 100 mph of intensity in less than 24 hours, the fastest intensification of any Pacific basin cyclone since 1996. Islands in the northern part of the Marianas bore the brunt of this monster storm. Now the cyclone is moving back over open waters with Japan potentially in the crosshairs this upcoming weekend.

 

 

Hagibis has been moving west-northwest and passed some distance north of the most populated of the Marianas group. Model guidance is in good agreement that the cyclone will turn northwestward, then eventually curve to the north and northeast. Where this occurs will determine whether the cyclone makes a glancing blow on Japan or a destructive landfall. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely in the next few days. Later this week, Hagibis will encounter cooler water temperatures, leading to a weakening trend as it approaches Japan. Hagibis will remain a large and powerful cyclone, however, and significant impacts are likely. A direct landfall would mean life-threatening storm surge, destructive winds, and serious flash flooding. Major sporting events scheduled for this weekend in Japan like the Rugby World Cup and the F1 Japanese Grand Prix could face significant disruptions.