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Tropical Storm Nestor Racing Northeast Towards Florida Panhandle!

Written by Team Morecast

 

Late-season tropical activity has picked up in the Gulf of Mexico with Nestor developing from Thursday into Friday. Strong upper level winds are acting to limit the storm’s intensity and move it quickly northeast. In fact, Nestor will be completely off the Carolina coast by Sunday morning. In the meantime, though, Nestor will produce some heavy rain and gusty winds from Florida through Georgia to the Carolinas.

 

 

As of Friday evening, Nestor is located about 130 miles (210 km) southwest of Panama City, FL. Moderate to heavy rainfall is already spreading over the region (see animation above). The storm is producing sustained winds to 60 mph (100 kph), moving northeast at near 23 mph (37 kph), rather fast for a cyclone. Nestor will remain a strong tropical storm through landfall, now expected to occur early Saturday morning just south of Panama City (see track map below).

 

 

The storm will likely transition to extratropical status shortly after landfall. However, it will still be capable of producing damaging winds and localized flash flooding. The fast forward speed could also enhance the storm surge potential for sections of the Florida Gulf coast, probably the most dangerous threat from this storm. Some locations will see a surge of up to 4-5 feet inundate the coast. Rainfall of three to locally six inches (75-150 mm) will fall over much of the Southeast. Wind gusts of 45-60 mph will combine with rain-weakened soil to knock down numerous trees. Isolated tornadoes will lead to localized areas of heavier damage. Lead photo courtesy Army National Guard, Lt. Zachary West.

Super Typhoon Hagibis Barrels Over the Marianas, Could Threaten Japan This Weekend!

Written by Team Morecast

 

Typhoon Hagibis, just a tropical storm early Monday, underwent a period of rapid intensification through early Tuesday. In fact, Hagibis gained 100 mph of intensity in less than 24 hours, the fastest intensification of any Pacific basin cyclone since 1996. Islands in the northern part of the Marianas bore the brunt of this monster storm. Now the cyclone is moving back over open waters with Japan potentially in the crosshairs this upcoming weekend.

 

 

Hagibis has been moving west-northwest and passed some distance north of the most populated of the Marianas group. Model guidance is in good agreement that the cyclone will turn northwestward, then eventually curve to the north and northeast. Where this occurs will determine whether the cyclone makes a glancing blow on Japan or a destructive landfall. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely in the next few days. Later this week, Hagibis will encounter cooler water temperatures, leading to a weakening trend as it approaches Japan. Hagibis will remain a large and powerful cyclone, however, and significant impacts are likely. A direct landfall would mean life-threatening storm surge, destructive winds, and serious flash flooding. Major sporting events scheduled for this weekend in Japan like the Rugby World Cup and the F1 Japanese Grand Prix could face significant disruptions.

 

Powerful, Unusual Hurricane Lorenzo Churning Towards the Azores

Written by Team Morecast

 

Hurricane Lorenzo achieved category five status late Saturday night over the warmer-than-normal waters of the central Atlantic. At that point Lorenzo was the strongest hurricane on record that far north and east. Since last night, Lorenzo has weakened significantly and is now a category three hurricane. Additional weakening is likely, however Lorenzo still poses a significant threat to the Azores.

 

 

Lorenzo is a large and powerful cyclone causing increased wave and surf activity all the way from portions of northeast South America to the Caribbean and the U.S. East coast. Fortunately for those regions, rough surf will be the only impact they’ll ever see from Lorenzo. The story is different for the Azores, however. Model guidance brings Lorenzo near or over the Azores, especially the westernmost islands, by Tuesday into Wednesday. Additional weakening is likely, but Lorenzo may still be a hurricane by the time it reaches the Azores. If it were to retain hurricane strength, Lorenzo would be the first hurricane to move through the Azores since Gordon in 2006. Damaging winds, storm surge and high waves, and locally flooding rains are expected regardless. The worst impacts are likely for the westernmost islands in the chain, Flores and Corvo.

 

 

Beyond mid-week, Lorenzo will continue to accelerate to the northeast. Some models bring the storm close to the British Isles late in the week, accompanied by gusty winds, heavy rains, and very large waves. However, other models predict Lorenzo will be absorbed by a larger system well to the west of the U.K. Interests in western Europe should pay close attention to forecasts in the next few days.

Major Early Season Snow Storm Rolling Down the Rockies!

Written by Team Morecast

 

Much of the country is still basking in late-summer heat, but for some winter is already rearing its head. A big early-winter storm has been pounding the eastern slopes and adjacent plains of the Canadian Rockies (see tweet below). Now it’s moving across the U.S. border and will be dropping record-threatening accumulations, especially in Montana.

 

 

 

September is a transition month for these northern latitudes, often characterized by high winds and wild swings in temperature. Snow is not unheard of in late September, especially in the higher elevations. However, the current storm is unusually moist and strong. Ahead of the system, winds have been gusting upwards of 60 mph (100 kph), leading some to take advantage of unusual wave activity on area lakes (see tweet above). However, the surge of cold air accompanying strong low pressure has led to heavy snow.

 

 

The snow has been spreading into Montana today and is expected to continue through Monday. Some of the peaks could see 2-3 feet of snow before all is said and done! The heavy, wet snow will combine with gusty winds to produce dangerous blizzard conditions. Trees and branches will come down, leading to power outages. Roads have already been closed and more closures will likely be needed.