Category: Posts EN

First Cyclone of the Season Could Target Northern WA This Weekend

Written by Team Morecast

 

An active storm pattern has been affecting portions of the Australia tropics in the last few weeks. A tropical low is expected to develop out of this activity in the next few days, rapidly intensifying to become the first cyclone threat of the season. Northern portions of Western Australia can expect high winds and flooding rainfall this weekend through much of next week.

 

 

The Australian tropical cyclone season actually began in November, but no systems have been named yet. However, conditions are ripe for cyclone development over the Timor Sea north of Western Australia. Water temperatures there are 29-30 deg C with low wind shear in the upper levels of the atmosphere. There is striking agreement among our weather models that a tropical low currently spinning well offshore will move south and intensify in the next few days. Heavy rain bands will sweep onshore as early as late Saturday, however strong winds will probably wait until later on Sunday. The tropical low is expected to become a cyclone by late Sunday or early Monday.

 

 

Model guidance suggests the cyclone will move slowly southwest along the coast of northern WA, then move south into the interior later next week. This slow movement will lend itself to very heavy rainfall amounts up to 300 mm, locally higher. Serious flooding can be expected. Damaging winds will occur over a somewhat smaller area, but brief gusts as high as 120 kph could lead to downed trees and power outages.

Roaring Wildfires Prompt Emergency Evacuations from Coastal Towns in NSW

Written by Team Morecast

 

Dozens of wildfires continue to burn thousands of acres across portions of eastern Australia. Some of the largest fires are now raging across the highlands of southern New South Wales just inland from the coast. High winds and scorching temperatures are stretching already-taxed firefighting resources past the breaking point. The result is out-of-control wildfires threatening the homes and lives of thousands.

 

 

 

Fires surrounding Bateman’s Bay, NSW forced officials to evacuate thousands of residents to the beach on Tuesday. Choking smoke turned midday into midnight as ash rained down. Desperate evacuees were prepared to flee in boats or even swim if the fires threatened the beach itself. The Australian Navy was on alert in case called upon to help evacuate residents of cut-off towns like Bateman’s Bay.

 

 

 

The wildfires are burning so hot that they have created their own cloud systems. Called “pyrocumulus clouds”, these structures tower thousands of meters into the air. They operate very similarly to thunderstorms, so much so that they’re producing periodic bursts of lightning (see radar tweet above). Just like thunderstorms, these fires can also produce very high winds, even tornadoes. One such tornado may have claimed the life of a volunteer firefighter working the Green Valley fire near Jingellic, NSW on Tuesday. Witnesses reported a sudden fire tornado flipping multiple vehicles over, including the 10-ton truck the firefighter was riding in, as they were attempting to rescue cattle. Two others in the same truck were flown to a Sydney hospital with serious burns.

A few isolated storms are moving across the region today associated with a cool change. Unfortunately, these are not likely to produce the kind of widespread precipitation necessary to tamp the fires down. Gusty southwest winds in the wake of the front may in fact exacerbate the dangerous conditions, pushing the fires towards previously unburned areas.

Record-Setting Heat Wave Scorches Most of Australia

Written by Team Morecast

 

Australia summers are routinely hot over the deserts of the central and southwest. However, this week has seen numerous high temperature records set. Tuesday was the hottest day on record in Australia in terms of nationwide average temperature. The record was short-lived, however, as Wednesday’s number outpaced Tuesday’s by a full degree!

 

 

The map above shows high temperatures recorded in the past three days (17-19 Dec). You can see the vast stretches of the center and west that saw highs peak above 45 deg C (113 deg F). The average high for the country on Tuesday reach 40.9 deg C (106 deg F), a new record that lasted only about 24 hours. Wednesday’s average soared to 41.9 deg C (107 deg F). Nullarbor, SA reached 49.9 deg C Thursday, setting a new national high temperature mark for the month of December. It’s an unsettling way to start the summer that’s only three weeks old. The extreme heat is shifting east towards portions of Victoria, Queensland and New South Wales. Highs are easily exceeding 40 deg C at Adelaide, quite unusual that far south. Sydney and Melbourne will get in on the act with temperatures reaching the mid-40s for locations inland from the immediate coast on Friday and Saturday.

 

 

This blistering heat is exacerbating the dangerous wildfire threat in some parts of the country, especially in the east. Air quality is also extremely poor due to thick, choking smoke downwind of the blazing wildfires. Conditions are so primed that officials have instituted a total burn ban across several states, including New South Wales. In fact, a state of emergency has been declared, the second time in as many months that it’s been necessary. The state of emergency gives additional powers to firefighters to issue evacuations, close roads, and even shut down water and electricity services. Wildfires have been raging over portions of New South Wales and Queensland for weeks, burning more than seven millions acres and destroying almost 700 homes and businesses. Lead photo courtesy Wikipedia contributor 80 trading 24.

Super Typhoon Kammuri Slams into Luzon, Phillippines

Written by Team Morecast

 

Small but intense Typhoon Kammuri (or Tisoy as it has been designated locally) barrelled into the northern Philippines overnight Monday into early Tuesday. At landfall Kammuri was producing destructive winds up to 210 kph (130 mph). Hundreds of thousands of residents were evacuated from their homes as Kammuri rolled through the most populous island in the country, Luzon. Residents and journalists who stuck it out there reported numerous trees and powerlines down, roofs taken off of homes, and severe surge flooding.

 

 

 

Kammuri is moving close to the Philippine capital of Manila as of early Tuesday afternoon (local time). After a quick burst of intensification prior to landfall on Monday, Kammuri is now weakening due to the interaction with land. The typhoon remains quite dangerous, however, prompting many road closures and even the shutdown of the Aquino International Airport. Kammuri is a relatively small storm moving with some speed. The strongest impacts are fortunately being felt over short durations at any one point. Conditions in the Manila metro area should improve by Wednesday morning.

 

 

Additional weakening is likely as the storm moves into less hospitable waters in the South China Sea. Within the next 48-72 hours, Kammuri will likely diminish below typhoon status. No further threat will be posed for landfall beyond the Philippines.