Category: Posts EN

Cyclone Blake Weakens, but Another Storm Looming for the Northern Coast

Written by Team Morecast

 

Cyclone Blake has moved onshore over northern WA and weakened to a remnant low. Tropical moisture will continue to stream into interior WA associated with the low. Flooding will continue to be a significant danger in these areas. Meanwhile, the active tropical pattern will continue with another cyclone likely to be named soon near the northern coast of NT. This potential cyclone will rake slowly across northern NT and northern WA through the weekend with heavy rains and high winds.

 

 

No significant damage has been reported over the sparsely populated portions of northern WA impacted by Blake in the past few days. A few stations have reported heavy rainfall around 150 mm. The remnants of Blake will continue to move slowly south over the next several days. Tropical moisture associated with the low will continue to flow into interior WA, leading to heavy rainfall approaching 300 mm in spots. Flash flooding is likely, and runoff could eventually lead to rises on streams and rivers. Damaging winds will become less likely as the low continues to weaken, but a few gusts to 60-70 kph could still occur.

 

 

Another tropical low is organizing over the warm tropical waters just north of the coast of Northern Territory. A new cyclone is likely to be named later Wednesday or early Thursday. This cyclone will move slowly west, paralleling the coast of NT before potentially approaching northern WA late Saturday into Sunday. Heavy rainfall of 150-300 mm is likely along with dangerous wind gusts of 80-130 kph. The city of Darwin will be at risk for flooding rainfall and high winds late Friday through early Sunday.

First Cyclone of the Season Could Target Northern WA This Weekend

Written by Team Morecast

 

An active storm pattern has been affecting portions of the Australia tropics in the last few weeks. A tropical low is expected to develop out of this activity in the next few days, rapidly intensifying to become the first cyclone threat of the season. Northern portions of Western Australia can expect high winds and flooding rainfall this weekend through much of next week.

 

 

The Australian tropical cyclone season actually began in November, but no systems have been named yet. However, conditions are ripe for cyclone development over the Timor Sea north of Western Australia. Water temperatures there are 29-30 deg C with low wind shear in the upper levels of the atmosphere. There is striking agreement among our weather models that a tropical low currently spinning well offshore will move south and intensify in the next few days. Heavy rain bands will sweep onshore as early as late Saturday, however strong winds will probably wait until later on Sunday. The tropical low is expected to become a cyclone by late Sunday or early Monday.

 

 

Model guidance suggests the cyclone will move slowly southwest along the coast of northern WA, then move south into the interior later next week. This slow movement will lend itself to very heavy rainfall amounts up to 300 mm, locally higher. Serious flooding can be expected. Damaging winds will occur over a somewhat smaller area, but brief gusts as high as 120 kph could lead to downed trees and power outages.

Roaring Wildfires Prompt Emergency Evacuations from Coastal Towns in NSW

Written by Team Morecast

 

Dozens of wildfires continue to burn thousands of acres across portions of eastern Australia. Some of the largest fires are now raging across the highlands of southern New South Wales just inland from the coast. High winds and scorching temperatures are stretching already-taxed firefighting resources past the breaking point. The result is out-of-control wildfires threatening the homes and lives of thousands.

 

 

 

Fires surrounding Bateman’s Bay, NSW forced officials to evacuate thousands of residents to the beach on Tuesday. Choking smoke turned midday into midnight as ash rained down. Desperate evacuees were prepared to flee in boats or even swim if the fires threatened the beach itself. The Australian Navy was on alert in case called upon to help evacuate residents of cut-off towns like Bateman’s Bay.

 

 

 

The wildfires are burning so hot that they have created their own cloud systems. Called “pyrocumulus clouds”, these structures tower thousands of meters into the air. They operate very similarly to thunderstorms, so much so that they’re producing periodic bursts of lightning (see radar tweet above). Just like thunderstorms, these fires can also produce very high winds, even tornadoes. One such tornado may have claimed the life of a volunteer firefighter working the Green Valley fire near Jingellic, NSW on Tuesday. Witnesses reported a sudden fire tornado flipping multiple vehicles over, including the 10-ton truck the firefighter was riding in, as they were attempting to rescue cattle. Two others in the same truck were flown to a Sydney hospital with serious burns.

A few isolated storms are moving across the region today associated with a cool change. Unfortunately, these are not likely to produce the kind of widespread precipitation necessary to tamp the fires down. Gusty southwest winds in the wake of the front may in fact exacerbate the dangerous conditions, pushing the fires towards previously unburned areas.

Record-Setting Heat Wave Scorches Most of Australia

Written by Team Morecast

 

Australia summers are routinely hot over the deserts of the central and southwest. However, this week has seen numerous high temperature records set. Tuesday was the hottest day on record in Australia in terms of nationwide average temperature. The record was short-lived, however, as Wednesday’s number outpaced Tuesday’s by a full degree!

 

 

The map above shows high temperatures recorded in the past three days (17-19 Dec). You can see the vast stretches of the center and west that saw highs peak above 45 deg C (113 deg F). The average high for the country on Tuesday reach 40.9 deg C (106 deg F), a new record that lasted only about 24 hours. Wednesday’s average soared to 41.9 deg C (107 deg F). Nullarbor, SA reached 49.9 deg C Thursday, setting a new national high temperature mark for the month of December. It’s an unsettling way to start the summer that’s only three weeks old. The extreme heat is shifting east towards portions of Victoria, Queensland and New South Wales. Highs are easily exceeding 40 deg C at Adelaide, quite unusual that far south. Sydney and Melbourne will get in on the act with temperatures reaching the mid-40s for locations inland from the immediate coast on Friday and Saturday.

 

 

This blistering heat is exacerbating the dangerous wildfire threat in some parts of the country, especially in the east. Air quality is also extremely poor due to thick, choking smoke downwind of the blazing wildfires. Conditions are so primed that officials have instituted a total burn ban across several states, including New South Wales. In fact, a state of emergency has been declared, the second time in as many months that it’s been necessary. The state of emergency gives additional powers to firefighters to issue evacuations, close roads, and even shut down water and electricity services. Wildfires have been raging over portions of New South Wales and Queensland for weeks, burning more than seven millions acres and destroying almost 700 homes and businesses. Lead photo courtesy Wikipedia contributor 80 trading 24.