Dangerous Overnight Tornado Outbreak Threatens the Southern US

 

An extremely dangerous outbreak of severe storms, including tornadoes, will threaten the southern U.S. late on Easter Sunday through early Monday. Tornadoes and other severe hazards are particularly deadly when they occur at night due to poor visibility and the fact that many people are asleep. Keep your sources of emergency information close at hand and be prepared to seek shelter if necessary!

 

 

A strong upper level trough is pivoting out of the southwest U.S. tonight. Severe storms have already broken out over portions of west Texas with large hail and isolated tornadoes. The system will encounter rich moisture from the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, fueling more and stronger supercell thunderstorms, especially later in the afternoon into the evening. Unfortunately, the best combination of strong upper level winds and moist instability will come together on Sunday evening over portions of Louisiana, Arkansas, western Tennessee, Mississippi, and Alabama. Deadly tornadoes and damaging hail up to three inches (7.5 cm) in diameter will occur in this region. The supercells will likely consolidate into a squall line that will race into the southeast Monday morning. Here the most widespread threat will be destructive straight-line winds up to 80 mph (130 kph), although isolated tornadoes and large hail may still occur. Major cities in the path of these severe cells include Jackson, MS, Memphis, TN, Atlanta, GA, and Columbia, SC.

 

Deadly Cyclone Harold Ravaging the Islands of Vanuatu

 

Cyclone Harold intensified rapidly on Sunday just west of the archipelago nation of Vanuatu in the South Pacific. Harold is now a severe Category Four storm producing destructive winds up to 270 kph along with a deadly storm surge and flooding rains. The cyclone has made landfall over the largest of Vanuatu’s islands, Espirito Santu, as of Monday morning local time. The eyewall will be lashing the city of Luganville in the midday hours.

 

 

Officials have lifted pandemic-related restrictions on large numbers of people gathering together to allow residents to seek refuge in regional evacuation centers. Some natives have even adopted the sheltering ways of their ancestors, hiding in mountain caves. Most residents can easily recall one of the worst natural disasters to ever strike Vanuatu, Cyclone Pam, just five years ago. Pam was bit stronger than Harold, a Category Five with winds up to 300 kph. However, Harold is on track to affect more of the larger islands and population centers. It’s also moving more slowly, prolonging the period of dangerous conditions. Social media posts indicate significant damage has already occurred in Luganville, a city of more than 16,000, with the worst winds yet to come.

 

 

Harold will continue to move east-southeast with conditions improving on the islands of Vanuatu later Tuesday. There is a risk of significant impacts to the Fiji Islands later in the week, although some weakening is expected in the interim. Residents there should keep a close eye on Harold’s progress in the next few days and make appropriate preparations.

Extremely Rare Snowfall Blankets the Iraqi Capital of Baghdad

 

For only the second time in a century, residents of Baghdad, Iraq awoke Tuesday morning to a coating of snow. Accumulation was mainly restricted to grassy and elevated surfaces like car rooftops. Traffic disruption was minimal. However, children were able to participate in the kinds of activities, like throwing snowballs and building snowmen, that kids in other countries take for granted. The snow and temperatures near or below freezing were less enjoyable for the hundreds of thousands of homeless refugees from the conflicts in Syria huddled into tents in Baghdad and points north.

 

 

Wintertime temperatures in Baghdad are more typically in the teens and 20s (deg C). Temperatures near or below freezing are very rare. Rarer still is the combination of cold temperatures and sufficient moisture. Only one other time in the past century has any snow been recorded in Baghdad – that was in 2008 and a only a slushy dusting. By contrast, Tuesday’s snows reached a respectable 3-4 cm. And despite the fact that the snow was mostly melted by midday Tuesday, residents both young and old can now happily claim to have seen the white stuff in their own hometown.

Flooding Rains Spreading Down the New South Wales Coast!

 

Heavy rains have been falling today along the coast of southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales. Amounts exceeding 100 mm have been recorded in spots. This heavy rain is spreading south along the New South Wales. It’s part of a pattern shift away from the dry, hot, wildfire-friendly conditions of a few weeks ago towards one that is cool and rainy.

 

 

The map above shows the overall setup. An upper level low has parked itself over northern NSW and won’t be dislodged for several days. Meanwhile, persistent onshore flow at the surface will bring moisture from the ocean into eastern New South Wales. This flow will be perpendicular to the mountain ranges, and east-facing slopes will help enhance upward motion of the moist air. The combination of these factors will make a perfect recipe for prolonged, occasionally heavy rainfall along the east coast of New South Wales, including the Sydney metro area.

Widespread rainfall totals of 150-300 mm are expected through early next week with localized heavier bands dropping totals upwards of 400 mm. These amounts will lead to serious flash flooding. Some of the mountain slopes are likely to see landslides. Increasing easterly winds gusting as high as 60-80 kph will combine with rain-weakened soils to down trees and powerlines, resulting in power outages.