Category: Posts EN

Beneficial Rainfall Spreads Across Wildfire-Stricken Eastern Australia

Written by Team Morecast

 

The dry, hot pattern that has contributed to devastating wildfires in eastern Australia has finally changed. Tropical moisture has swept into the region, leading to widespread showers and storms. Heavy rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding, but will also help dampen fires that are still ongoing.

 

 

Soil moisture leading up to this week has been at record dry levels over portions of eastern Victoria, New South Wales, and Queensland (see map above). December 2019 was the driest on record in Australia. Those dry conditions persisted through the first few weeks of January over the east. Hundreds of wildfires have burned 10 million hectares of land since mid-2019, an area nearly equal to the island of Great Britain. The worst fires have affected portions of eastern QLD and VIC, destroying whole communities including thousands of homes.

 

 

 

 

The past few days have seen numerous, slow-moving, locally severe storms over portions of QLD/NSW/VIC (see maps above). On Wednesday the storms were affecting interior portions down through the Melbourne metro. One of the cells around Melbourne produced a wind gust to 110 kph and rainfall of 44 mm in only 30 minutes! Storms on Thursday have shifted eastward. Heavy rainfall rates will lead to localized flooding with recent burn areas particularly vulnerable. The ground there is baked and bare, reducing the absorption of excess water and enhancing the flooding and landslide risk. But the rainfall is also helping firefighters control and even eliminate some of the wildfires. More than three dozen were doused in the past few days due to the rain. The rain and shifting winds will also help clear smoke and dust out of the air, improving air quality conditions that had become life-threatening in the major population centers of the southeast.

Devastating Winter Storm Claims Dozens of Lives in Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan

Written by Team Morecast

 

A brutal winter storm has dumped heavy rains and snows over portions of southeast Iran, southwest Pakistan and southeast Afghanistan. Heavy, wet snow accumulations up to 15 cm have overloaded roofs, leading to deadly collapses. Torrential rains have turned rivers into raging rapids, flooding vast regions and destroying hundreds of homes. At least 54 deaths have been attributed to the severe weather.

 

 

 

 

Temperatures in the Afghani capital of Kabul plunged down to minus 15 deg. Hundreds of drivers struggling to get to work were forced to abandon their cars on the snow-packed roads. Officials are scrambling to reopen highways closed by the heavy weather despite a continued threat for avalanches and landslides. The flooded rivers have compromised roadways and bridges, hampering efforts to move much-needed supplies to the devastated areas. Thousands have been evacuated from threatened communities with thousands more cutoff and isolated by the high waters.

Cyclone Blake Weakens, but Another Storm Looming for the Northern Coast

Written by Team Morecast

 

Cyclone Blake has moved onshore over northern WA and weakened to a remnant low. Tropical moisture will continue to stream into interior WA associated with the low. Flooding will continue to be a significant danger in these areas. Meanwhile, the active tropical pattern will continue with another cyclone likely to be named soon near the northern coast of NT. This potential cyclone will rake slowly across northern NT and northern WA through the weekend with heavy rains and high winds.

 

 

No significant damage has been reported over the sparsely populated portions of northern WA impacted by Blake in the past few days. A few stations have reported heavy rainfall around 150 mm. The remnants of Blake will continue to move slowly south over the next several days. Tropical moisture associated with the low will continue to flow into interior WA, leading to heavy rainfall approaching 300 mm in spots. Flash flooding is likely, and runoff could eventually lead to rises on streams and rivers. Damaging winds will become less likely as the low continues to weaken, but a few gusts to 60-70 kph could still occur.

 

 

Another tropical low is organizing over the warm tropical waters just north of the coast of Northern Territory. A new cyclone is likely to be named later Wednesday or early Thursday. This cyclone will move slowly west, paralleling the coast of NT before potentially approaching northern WA late Saturday into Sunday. Heavy rainfall of 150-300 mm is likely along with dangerous wind gusts of 80-130 kph. The city of Darwin will be at risk for flooding rainfall and high winds late Friday through early Sunday.

First Cyclone of the Season Could Target Northern WA This Weekend

Written by Team Morecast

 

An active storm pattern has been affecting portions of the Australia tropics in the last few weeks. A tropical low is expected to develop out of this activity in the next few days, rapidly intensifying to become the first cyclone threat of the season. Northern portions of Western Australia can expect high winds and flooding rainfall this weekend through much of next week.

 

 

The Australian tropical cyclone season actually began in November, but no systems have been named yet. However, conditions are ripe for cyclone development over the Timor Sea north of Western Australia. Water temperatures there are 29-30 deg C with low wind shear in the upper levels of the atmosphere. There is striking agreement among our weather models that a tropical low currently spinning well offshore will move south and intensify in the next few days. Heavy rain bands will sweep onshore as early as late Saturday, however strong winds will probably wait until later on Sunday. The tropical low is expected to become a cyclone by late Sunday or early Monday.

 

 

Model guidance suggests the cyclone will move slowly southwest along the coast of northern WA, then move south into the interior later next week. This slow movement will lend itself to very heavy rainfall amounts up to 300 mm, locally higher. Serious flooding can be expected. Damaging winds will occur over a somewhat smaller area, but brief gusts as high as 120 kph could lead to downed trees and power outages.