Category: Posts EN

Deadly Flooding Ravages Central America; Same System Could Spawn a US-Bound Hurricane!

Written by Team Morecast

 

Torrential rains totaling up to two feet devastated portions of Central America earlier this week thanks to Tropical Storm Amanda. El Salvador was particularly hard hit with more than two dozen reported casualties due to the flooding. The same large weather system that spawned Amanda, an Eastern Pacific basin storm, has now created a tropical storm in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Cristobal is drifting slowly over southeast Mexico, dropping additional copious rainfall. Cristobal is expected to eventually turn north and threaten the mainland U.S. this weekend.

 

 

 

This active tropical pattern is due to a large, stationary low pressure system that forms during the Central American rainy season. This Central American Gyre (or CAG) has historically been responsible for some of the region’s most devastating hurricanes. Category Five Hurricane Michael was one such monster from 2018. Conditions are not favorable for Cristobal to gain nearly that much intensity if it does turn north into the open Gulf. However, model guidance suggests some strengthening could occur. Cristobal could approach minimal hurricane strengthen as it targets Louisiana this weekend. Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast should pay very close attention to the progress of this dangerous storm.

 

 

In the short term, however, the main concern is additional flooding rainfall over southern Mexico and neighboring countries. Rainfall of one to two feet will occur as Cristobal drags slowly through the region. Areas of mountainous terrain will be particularly vulnerable to deadly flash flooding and mudslides.

Unusual Hybrid Storm to Bring Windy Weather to Western Australia!

Written by Team Morecast

 

Tropical Cyclone Mangga is spinning over the Indian Ocean, passing not far from the Cocos Islands. Mangga will strengthen and accelerate to the southeast over the next few days. The cyclone will be pulled towards mainland Australia by a larger upper level low approaching from the west. Eventually the larger system will absorb Mangga’s energy. The combined storm will produce widespread damaging winds over Western Australia later this weekend into early next week!

 

 

The strongest winds are likely to hit the northwest Capes first early Sunday morning. Wind gusts of 100-120 kph are expected with isolated gusts to 140 kph possible along exposed coastal points or islands. Winds of this magnitude will knock down trees and large branches, leading to power outages and minor damage to property. Strong winds will move towards southwest WA, including the Perth metro, later Sunday night into Monday morning. Winds will linger longest along the southern tier, from late Monday into early Tuesday, before the entire system passes to the southeast. Heavy rain is not expected to be a widespread hazard, although some localized, minor flooding is possible.

Catastrophic Flooding Inundates U.S. State of Michigan!

Written by Team Morecast

Following days of heavy rain across central Michigan, historic flooding has unfolded across the region. The flooding has led to the failure of two dams in the area. Drenching rainfall amounts of 4-7 inches (107-178 mm) over the past few days have proved to be too much for these dams to handle. Thousands of residents have been evacuated as the flood waters unleashed their fury.

The Tittabawasee River, which is normally contained by the Edenville and Sanford Dams, is once again flowing without inhibition in the wake of the dams’ failure. The torrent of water sent downstream has inundated towns and farmland along its banks. Downstream, the town of Midland has evacuated thousands of residents as the water is forecast to engulf a large portion of town with up to 9 feet (2.7 meters) of water by Thursday morning. Midland is home to Dow Chemical Co, and it is feared that the floodwaters will run through the plant, causing an environmental contamination.


Water levels along the Tittabawassee River have reached 35 feet (10.6 meters) above flood stage. This breaks the record of 33 feet (10 meters) set back in 1986. According to local geologists, it is likely the floods will forever change the geography around the river.

The deterioration of the Edenville Dam has led to Wixom Lake being almost completely drained. Many people were observed walking along the now exposed lake bed. The drained lake also left lots of fish scrambling to survive in left over puddles of water. A group of locals were seen collecting the fish and bringing them back to deep water.

The governor of Michigan issued an emergency declaration, allowing the National Guard to assist with evacuations and such. No injuries or deaths have been reported thus far, but many people remain in shelters. The flood waters are not expected to fully recede until the weekend.

Super Cyclone Amphan Heads Towards India/Bangladesh!

Written by Team Morecast

After undergoing rapid intensification, Super Cyclone Amphan became the strongest storm ever recorded in the Bay of Bengal by reaching peak wind speeds of 270 kph (165 mph) on Monday night. The monster storm is now on track to strike India and Bangladesh within the next 24 hours. Evacuations are underway as millions of people in both countries are in the storm’s path.

The storm is forecast to make landfall near the border of India and Bangladesh, with the Indian city of Kolkata directly in its path. The region has a vast population, and Kolkata has over 14 million residents.

Although the cyclone has weakened significantly from its peak, with winds currently around 165 kph( 103 mph), it is still a formidable storm, and will bring with it a multitude of hazards including flooding rains, damaging winds, and catastrophic storm surge.

Storm surge is likely to be the most severe along the coast of Bangladesh, as it will be in the right front quadrant of the storm, the area in which winds are highest for tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere. The coast of Bangladesh is very low lying, and this will further exacerbate the surge by allowing the water to flow farther inland. Also, given that the storm was once much stronger than its current state, it still contains the wave energy from its peak. This will make the surge greater than a normal storm of its current magnitude.

Amphan is tied with Cyclone Harold, which occurred last month, as the strongest tropical cyclone of 2020 thus far. Amphan is also one of the strongest tropical cyclones ever recorded in the northern
Indian Ocean.