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TUESDAY MORNING UPDATE: Upgraded Hurricane Isaias Makes Landfall in North Carolina!

Written by Team Morecast

 

As feared, Isaias gained strength on Monday feeding on warm Gulf Stream waters off the southeast US coast. The storm was upgraded back to hurricane status before making landfall late on Monday evening near Ocean Isle Beach, NC. Very strong winds have occurred near the landfall point with one gust measured to 87 mph (140 kph). A major storm surge is also being reported (see tweet video below) up to six feet (1.8 m) in places, some of the highest water levels ever recorded. A devastating fire sparked by the high winds has consumed multiple homes in Ocean Isle Beach with fatalities reported. Dangerous winds and tides will continue to affect portions of the North Carolina coast through the early morning hours.

 

 

 

 

 

Isaias will continue to accelerate north-northeastward through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast in the next 24-36 hours. The storm is merging with a strong trough over the Midwest which will lend it energy. As a result, Isaias will not weaken as fast as tropical cyclones usually do. Destructive winds and flooding rainfall will continue to accompany the storm as it moves northeastward. The coastal Mid-Atlantic will see the brunt of the storm during the day on Tuesday. New England residents should expect tropical storm-force conditions late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Winds commonly reaching 60-75 mph (100-120 kph) will lead to numerous downed trees and branches and widespread power outages through the major cities of the urban corridor. Isolated tornadoes will also be a danger, resulting in localized extreme damage. Interior areas will see the heaviest rains, up to 5-6 inches (125-150 mm) in spots, leading to serious flash flooding. By early Wednesday, the storm’s remnants will be affecting Maritime Canada.

MONDAY MORNING UPDATE: Isaias Raking the Southeast Coast, Could Still Intensify!

Written by Team Morecast

 

Tropical Storm Isaias has remained somewhat disorganized through Sunday. The eastern (offshore) half of the storm has remained dominant, sparing the Atlantic coast of Florida the heaviest winds and rains. However, there are signs that Isaias could regain its hurricane status as it turns toward the Carolinas on Monday. Destructive winds and flooding are still major threats along the Carolina coast.

 

 

Radar and satellite imagery continues to show a lopsided tropical storm with the heaviest activity well to the east of Florida. Wind gusts over Florida have remained less than 50 mph (80 kph). Rainfall totals have generally been less than two inches (50 mm). Upper level shear is relaxing over the storm, however, and the latest satellite scans indicate that Isaias may be becoming more symmetrical. Isaias is expected to continue on a north-northwesterly path into Monday before it turns north and north-northeast. This path would keep it far enough east to minimize the disruptive influence that land usually has on a tropical cyclone. The storm will also be moving over very warm Gulf Stream waters. Model guidance is coming around to the idea that Isaias may gain strength before landfall in the Carolinas Monday night.

 

 

Regardless of whether Isaias is a strong tropical storm or a weak hurricane, dangerous weather will threaten the coastal Carolinas within the next 24-36 hours. Landfall is likely to occur near the Carolina border. Near and east of the landfall point, watch for a destructive storm surge of up to 3-4 feet (1-1.2 m). Damaging winds locally gusting 70-90 mph (110-145 kph) will also occur. Tropical storm-force winds could impact areas as far north as southern New England by midweek as the storm accelerates. Flooding rainfall will encompass a much larger region as the storm merges with a large trough now over the Midwest. Very heavy rains will fall from the Appalachians through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast (see tweet above).

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: Isaias Within Hours of Florida Landfall!

Written by Team Morecast

 

Hurricane Isaias roared through the Bahamas today, producing heavy rains and high winds (see video tweet below). Fortunately, little in the way of major damage has been reported. Passage through the Bahamas has resulted in Isaias weakening back to tropical storm status. Upper level wind shear has exposed the core of the storm. However, there is still a dangerous landfall threat in eastern Florida on Sunday. Isaias will continue to move north-northwest, scraping the entire Atlantic coast of the Southeast with high winds, rough surf, and damaging winds through the next few days.

 

 

As of late Saturday evening, Isaias was located about 80 miles (130 km) east of Miami, Florida. Most of the heaviest weather is east of the center, so impacts so far in Florida have been minimal. The storm will move slowly through the next few days. It will gradually turn north and then northeast as it’s picked up by a larger system in the Midwest U.S. Eventually this will accelerate Isaias through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states early next week. The larger system will help spread tropical moisture over a larger area, bringing a threat for flooding rains from the eastern Carolinas through Maritime Canada (see map below). High winds will be more localized, mainly occurring east of the track along the immediate coast of the Carolinas and southern New England. There will also be an isolated tornado threat to the east of the track. Storm surges of up to around three feet (one meter) are possible along the southeast coast.

 

 

 

Hurricane Isaias Targets U.S. East Coast!

Written by Team Morecast

After leaving a deadly trail of destruction across the Caribbean Islands, Hurricane Isaias is now on a collusion course with the east coast of the United States. The storm, currently centered over the central Bahamas, is showing signs of strengthening as it is moving over some very warm water.

Isaias’s journey began a week ago as a tropical wave originating off the coast of Africa. The system crossed the Atlantic, encountering dry air and upper level shear, but its  circulation was not disrupted. Upon reaching the Greater Antilles earlier this week, it encountered a more favorable environment and was named late on Wednesday night. Before reaching its current position, Isaias crossed the island of Hispaniola. Normally hurricanes rapidly lose intensity as they interact with the very high mountains of the island, but not Isaias. Isaias is proving to be the little storm that could, by surviving inhospitable conditions that would easily destroy most other storms.

Widespread damage and several deaths have been reported in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic due to Isaias. In the Dominican Republic, hundreds of thousands of people are without power as strong winds have torn off roofs and brought down trees and power lines. In the city of Puerto Plata, more than 1100 homes have been damaged. Landslides and flash flooding have ravaged Puerto Rico, with numerous water rescues being performed across the island. Puerto Rican farmers are predicting millions of dollars in losses, as many crops, particularly bananas and coffee, have been destroyed.

The fury of Isaias is expected to reach the southeastern United States by late Saturday night, as hurricane warnings are in place along the east coast of Florida. A landfall in Florida is not likely, due to the presence of an upper level trough moving out of the Midwest, which may steer Isaias to the north, while just straddling the coastline. Nonetheless, Florida will see hurricane conditions in the form of heavy rain, strong winds, coastal surge, and beach erosion. Isaias’s wind-field extends 200 miles (321 km) from its center, meaning even without a landfall, inland areas will experience at least tropical storm force winds. A landfall may eventually occur in the Carolinas early next week, as Isaias is drawn northward, but is likely to occur as a tropical storm.