Category: Posts EN

Meandering Eta Dumps Torrential Rain Across South Florida; Future Path Uncertain

Written by Team Morecast

 

Tropical Storm Eta, which struck Central America as a Category Four hurricane last week causing tremendous devastation, clipped southern Florida Sunday night. The most widespread hazard has been torrential rainfall, in some areas well in excess of a foot (305 mm) (see map below). Significant flash flooding has been reported, leading to stalled vehicles requiring water rescues. Some of the stronger bands have also produce damaging wind gusts of 50-65 mph (80-105 kph). The Florida Keys and the Miami metro area have been particularly hard hit (see tweet below). However, as Eta has pulled away from the region, impacts have subsided somewhat.

 

 

 

 

Eta is the 28th storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, tying a record for the busiest season on record. Eta has already been responsible for approximately 250 deaths, including 150 in Guatemala. After bashing Central America, Eta has gone through cycles of weakening and strengthening over land and water. The storm moved north and made a second landfall over Cuba on Saturday. It then turned west and moved slowly across the Florida Keys on Sunday into Sunday night. The frequent proximity to land and lateness of the season have hampered Eta’s ability to gain strength. The storm has ingested a significant amount of dry air, toxic to a healthy tropical cyclone. Current satellite imagery of the storm over the southeast Gulf of Mexico (see tweet below) shows a storm relatively devoid of strong thunderstorm activity in its core. Eta will have a hard time intensifying as long as this dry air is being incorporated into the structure.

 

 

Given the weak steering winds and uncertainty about intensity, it’s no wonder that model guidance shows a wide variety of potential paths for the system. Some take it towards Tampa Bay, others towards Louisiana or even further west. Fortunately, almost none of the models show a significant amount of strengthening. Nevertheless, residents all along the US Gulf Coast should keep a close eye on Eta this week. Lead photo courtesy flickr user Carvalho.

Eta Lashes Central America; Eyes Cuba, & U.S.

Written by Team Morecast

After making a landfall near the town of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua on Tuesday as a Category 4 hurricane with winds of 140 mph (225 kph), Eta, currently a tropical depression, has been ravaging the countries of Nicaragua, Belize, Guatemala, and Honduras for the last several days. Another record breaker, Eta is the 28th named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, tying the record set in 2005 for most named storms in one season. Eta is also the third strongest hurricane to occur during the month of November in the Atlantic, as well as only the fifth hurricane to reach Category 4 strength or higher throughout the month. It also was only the fifth storm recorded of greater than or equal to Category 4 strength to strike the country of Nicaragua.

Damage across the region has been described as catastrophic by local officials, with multiple effects of the storm causing havoc. The perilous winds have damaged thousands of homes and structures, with many roofs simply peeled off like a sticker. Due to lack of instrumentation, an official measure of the storm surge at the coast has not been confirmed, but estimates are that it ranged from 15-21 feet (4.5-6.4 meters).

By far, the most devastating effects from Eta have been the heavy rains. The slow moving, almost snail-like pace of Eta, has made the storm an extremely prolific rainmaker. Astronomical rainfall totals have been recorded, including 13.98 inches (355 mm) during one day, in Puerto Barrios, Guatemala, while the average over the last several days has been between 20-40 inches (508-1016 mm) in many locations. The relentless rains have triggered widespread flooding and landslides. The Ulua River in Honduras has seen a water level rise 13 feet (3.9 meters) higher than what was recorded during Hurricane Mitch of 1998, the benchmark storm for the region.

57 people have been confirmed dead, while numerous others are missing. Most of the deaths have been attributed to the rampant landslides. One such example is in the town of San Cristobal Verapaz, Guatemala, where a water logged mountainside gave way, and sent tons of mud and rocks flowing into the village below. 25 people were killed.

Eta is forecast to remerge over the open waters of the Caribbean Sea on Friday. Although some strengthening is expected, it is likely to remain just a tropical storm by the time it reaches Cuba on Sunday morning. South Florida may be begin to see the effects of Eta as early as Sunday evening after it crosses over Cuba.

Typhoon Goni Slams The Philppines!

Written by Team Morecast

After making a first landfall on the island of Catanduanes early Sunday morning, Typhoon Goni continued on a destructive path across the archipelagic country, making four  additional landfalls on the island of Luzon throughout the day on Sunday. Goni, which has been dubbed a “Super Typhoon”, had maximum sustained winds of 195 mph (314 kph) at the time of its initial landfall. This makes Goni the strongest landfalling tropical cyclone ever recorded on Earth, surpassing the record of 190 mph (306 kph) set by both Super Typhoons Haiyan (2013) and Meranti (2016) respectively.

The devastation in the wake of Goni was more evident on Monday as the damage was able to be assessed. As of now, 17 people have been confirmed dead, while up to 390,000 people have been displaced from their homes. As if the ferocious winds weren’t enough, a storm surge of 16 feet (4.9 meters) levelled around 13,000 homes at the coast, meanwhile, relentless rainfall triggered massive mudslides and flash flooding which contributed to the destruction of more homes further inland. Although the capital city of Manila was narrowly missed, the storm knocked out power to 125 cities and towns to the south of it. One such town was Virac, where 90% of the homes have been destroyed.

In the province of Albay, torrential rains from Goni caused boulders and voracious mudflows to pour down the sides of Mayon Volcano, inundating villages below it. The volcanic mud and rocks have not only buried more than 300 hundred homes, but several people are presumed to be buried alive in the debris as well. One of the victims, a 5 year old boy, was found 9 miles (14 kilometers) from the volcano, his body being swept away in the mudflow.

Goni, the 18th tropical cyclone to strike The Philippines this year, comes on the heels of Typhoon Molave, which struck the country just last week. Molave, a much weaker storm, was responsible for 22 deaths. Currently a tropical storm, Goni is churning in the South China Sea, and is expected to reach Vietnam later this week. Further strengthening of the storm is not anticipated.

Surprise Snowfall for New England Sets up a Rare White Halloween

Written by Team Morecast

 

A vigorous upper level low spent much of the week over the Southwest US, coating portions of west Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and the Front Range with heavy snow and ice. Sections of western Oklahoma saw ice accumulations up to 1.5 inches (38 mm), felling numerous trees and large branches still also bearing their leaves. Widespread power outages have left more than 300,000 households in the dark with some not likely to be restored until the end of next week. Needless to say, this wintry mess has severely complicated the early voting process in these states.

 

 


The winter storm finally vacated the Southwest in the mid- to late week, taking the remnants of Hurricane Zeta with it. The infusion of tropical moisture resulted in widespread heavy rains from the Ohio Valley to southern New England. Rainfall of 1.5-3 inches (38-75 mm) was common across these regions. In most areas, it was a welcome, soaking rainfall, however minor flooding was reported in a few areas.

 

 

Cold air over the Northeast states combined with the moisture to produce heavy, wet snow from Thursday night into Friday. However, the transition from rain to snow occurred much more quickly and further south than expected. The result was significant snow accumulation even along the Urban Corridor from Boston to Providence, Rhode Island and Hartford, Connecticut. Boston’s Logan International Airport reported 4.3 inches (10.9 cm) of accumulation on Friday, shattering the previous record of single-day snow accumulation in October. It was the biggest snowfall since mid-December 2019. In fact, it was as much as snow as was tallied throughout all of January, February, and March!  Locations further inland saw totals upwards of six inches (15 cm). Subfreezing temps overnight Friday should ensure a rare White Halloween across much of southern New England!