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Cyclone Imogen Strikes Northern Queensland

Written by Team Morecast

Cyclone Imogen, the first tropical cyclone of the 2020-21 Australian tropical cyclone season, made landfall near Karumba, Queensland late on Sunday night. The Category 1 storm, which formed over the weekend in the very warm waters of the Gulf of Carpentaria, had sustained winds of 65 kph (40 mph) at the time of landfall.

With gusts over 100 kph (65 mph) in some locations, some minor damage has been observed across the Gulf Country region of the state, and no injuries or deaths have been reported thus far. While most structures were spared from destruction, many trees have been felled by Imogen. Over 1400 people have lost power due to the storm. Although notable, the winds from Imogen were not as impressive as the rainfall totals it brought. For example, Normanton Airport received 259 mm (10 in) overnight. 186 mm (7 in) of that fell within just 3 hours. Many other locales have received 150- 265 mm (6-10 in).

Flash flooding has also been very immanent across the Far North region as swollen rivers have come over their banks. The floodwaters have swallowed roads and inundated farmland. One homestead near the town of Giru was completely cut off from road access due to the flooding. The head farmer of that homestead says this an annual occurrence though. He just waits it out.

Imogen, now a remnant tropical low, will continue to move slowly to the south and east towards the North Tropical and Herbert-Lower Burdekin coasts over the next few days. Heavy rainfall is expected to continue during this timeframe, with totals possibly exceeding 400 mm (16 in) by the time it’s all said and done. Rainfall totals of this magnitude will almost certainly lead to more flash flooding. Despite this threat, many farmers and ranchers are very pleased to see the rain, especially given that the wet season got off to a late start this year.

Christmas Storm Set to Wallop the Northeast U.S. with Flooding and High Winds!

Written by Team Morecast

 

An unusually strong and large storm will sprint northeastward late this week, bringing a surge of warm tropical moisture into the Northeast. Less than a week ago, this region saw a massive snowstorm that left feet of accumulation on the ground. Heavy rains and the rapid melting of this recent snow will lead to major flooding. Meanwhile, vicious southerly winds ahead of a sharp cold front will bring down numerous trees and large branches. Widespread power outages could spoil many a Christmas morn!

 

 

 

The system in question is currently approaching the Great Lakes. High winds and heavy snows on the west flank of the system are creating dangerous blizzard conditions through the Upper Midwest (see tweet videos above). Isolated tornadoes are keeping residents of Louisiana awake tonight to the south. This Gulf moisture will race up the Eastern Seaboard on Christmas Eve, dropping widespread 1.5-3 inch (38-75 mm) totals in a matter of hours (see map below). Some of the favorable south-facing terrain of the central and northern Appalachians will enhance rainfall locally up to 4-5 inches (75-125 mm). These same areas saw the heaviest snows with the recent storm, exceeding three feet (90 cm) in some locations. Rapid melting of this snow due to new rains and warm temperatures will lead to serious flash flooding. Many streams and rivers will surge out of their banks as well in the coming days.

 

 

The other hazard on the warm side of the system will be destructive southerly winds. Southern New England will bear the brunt of this threat on Friday morning. Gusts of 50-65 mph (80-105 kph) will be common.  A few exposed islands and coastal areas will see gusts as high as 75 mph (120 kph), especially near fast-moving thunderstorm cells. Winds of this magnitude will bring down large branches and uproot trees, knocking down powerlines and leading to widespread power outages. To make matters worse, Friday’s surge of warm air will be replaced late in the day by a wintry blast. Temperatures over the weekend will stay locked below freezing. Households without power will face dangerously cold conditions if an alternative heat source is unavailable. Those with backup generators are urged to prepare for an extended period without main electrical power. Lead photo courtesy flickr user Lauri Vain.

Massive Winter Storm Pummels Northeastern U.S.!

Written by Team Morecast

After a string of mild winters with little snowfall, winter came back with a vengeance in the Northeastern United States on Wednesday into Thursday, as a potent storm delivered a healthy dose of snow to the region.The multifaceted system brought with it heavy snow, sleet, strong winds, and even minor coastal flooding. Although disruptive, many people were delighted to see the snow just in time for the holidays.

In many cities, snowfall totals from just this storm alone exceeded snowfall totals for all of last winter. Some examples include New York City and Philadelphia. For this storm, New York City received 10 inches (25 cm) while last winter the city only received a measly 4.8 inches (12 cm). Meanwhile in Philadelphia the 5.7 inches (14 cm) that fell with this storm bested last years seasonal total of 0.3 inches (0.7 cm).

Not only were the snowfall totals more than what many areas received last winter, they were more than some locations have ever seen. At the height of the storm, snowfall was coming down at the rate of 3-4 inches (8-10 cm) per hour in an expansive band that stretched from interior portions of Pennsylvania into interior sections of New England. Thunder-snow was even reported. This contributed to staggering amounts of snow that were record breaking. Such places include Binghamton, New York, which received 41 inches (104 cm), smashing the previous record of 35.3 inches (90 cm) set in March 2017, and Williamsport, Pennsylvania, where the 24.7 inches (63cm) that fell during this storm surpassed the record of 24.1inches (61cm) set in January 1964. The top honors for highest snow received anywhere during this storm goes to Vestal, New York, where a whopping 45 inches (114 cm) fell.

The storm has proven to be deadly, as 5 fatalities have been reported thus far. At least one of the deaths is attributed to a massive 66 car pileup on Interstate 80 in Pennsylvania. Similar scenarios played out in various states, including New York, where over 600 car crashes were reported as of Thursday morning. Up to 70,000 scattered power outages occurred as strong winds and heavy snow brought down trees and power lines.

In the wake of the storm, very cold air will remain in place over the next few days, as the the fresh snow on the ground will prevent temperatures from rising too much in the daytime, and allow them to drop much more at night. The will almost certainly guarantee a white Christmas for many locales. The first since 2009.


 

Another Monster Hurricane Has Central America In Its Sights!

Written by Team Morecast

 

Hurricane Iota is bearing down on the east coast of Nicaragua with landfall expected Monday night. Iota is a lethal Category Five hurricane with sustained winds to 160 mph (260 kph), the strongest hurricane of this busy 2020 season. It’s also the latest-forming Category Five ever in the Atlantic basin. Iota, like Hurricane Eta less than two weeks ago, has rapidly intensified over the unusually warm waters of the southern Caribbean. In fact, Iota’s intensification is among the five fastest on record. Unfortunately, the resulting storm is even stronger than Eta was on virtually the same trajectory.

 

 

 

One difference between the two storms is that Eta slowed to a crawl as it approached the Nicaraguan coast. That meant a prolonged period of torrential tropical rainbands lashing the region, leading to massive flooding. Rainfall amounts likely exceeded three feet (915 mm) in some mountainous areas. Hundreds of thousands were forced to evacuate homes threatened by raging rivers and landslides. Many of these people remain homeless weeks later, forced to take shelter in temporary shelters or even tents (see tweet video below). They will be particularly vulnerable as Hurricane Iota approaches. Iota isn’t sprinting but is moving faster than Eta, and rainfall amounts should be less. However, rains locally upwards of two feet (610 mm) falling on saturated soils and swollen rivers will lead to renewed catastrophic flooding. Iota could also bring even higher winds gusting to 190 mph (305 kph) as well as storm surge up to 20 feet (6 m) to this region. Already-weakened infrastructure could collapse, leading to much higher death tolls and widespread homelessness.

 

 

Hurricane Eta turned north after impacting Central America and brought significant impacts to portions of Cuba and Florida. Model guidance suggests that Iota’s impacts will not expand beyond Central America, but that’s cold comfort for anxious residents of that battered region.