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Another Monster Hurricane Has Central America In Its Sights!

Written by Team Morecast

 

Hurricane Iota is bearing down on the east coast of Nicaragua with landfall expected Monday night. Iota is a lethal Category Five hurricane with sustained winds to 160 mph (260 kph), the strongest hurricane of this busy 2020 season. It’s also the latest-forming Category Five ever in the Atlantic basin. Iota, like Hurricane Eta less than two weeks ago, has rapidly intensified over the unusually warm waters of the southern Caribbean. In fact, Iota’s intensification is among the five fastest on record. Unfortunately, the resulting storm is even stronger than Eta was on virtually the same trajectory.

 

 

 

One difference between the two storms is that Eta slowed to a crawl as it approached the Nicaraguan coast. That meant a prolonged period of torrential tropical rainbands lashing the region, leading to massive flooding. Rainfall amounts likely exceeded three feet (915 mm) in some mountainous areas. Hundreds of thousands were forced to evacuate homes threatened by raging rivers and landslides. Many of these people remain homeless weeks later, forced to take shelter in temporary shelters or even tents (see tweet video below). They will be particularly vulnerable as Hurricane Iota approaches. Iota isn’t sprinting but is moving faster than Eta, and rainfall amounts should be less. However, rains locally upwards of two feet (610 mm) falling on saturated soils and swollen rivers will lead to renewed catastrophic flooding. Iota could also bring even higher winds gusting to 190 mph (305 kph) as well as storm surge up to 20 feet (6 m) to this region. Already-weakened infrastructure could collapse, leading to much higher death tolls and widespread homelessness.

 

 

Hurricane Eta turned north after impacting Central America and brought significant impacts to portions of Cuba and Florida. Model guidance suggests that Iota’s impacts will not expand beyond Central America, but that’s cold comfort for anxious residents of that battered region.

Eta Makes Final Landfall In Florida!

Written by Team Morecast

After making landfalls in Nicaragua, Cuba, and The Florida Keys over the last week, Eta made it’s fourth and final landfall early on Thursday morning as a tropical storm near Cedar Key, Florida. With winds of 50 mph (80 kph) this was the weakest of the 4 landfalls, but nonetheless, Eta still managed to wreak havoc as it crossed through Central Florida. After being missed by nearly every storm this season, Eta is the first storm of 2020 to make landfall in the state.

Although Eta’s effects in Florida were nowhere near the level of devastation seen in Central America, they still were quite destructive. These effects include flooding rains, damaging winds, and storm surge. With a storm surge of up to 3 feet (0.91 meters), many areas in and around Tampa experienced surge flooding as the water from Tampa Bay flowed in. While the surge flooding inundated many neighborhoods, it was not as bad as anticipated. Winds were also not as high as feared, but were still able to tear off a few roofs from mobile homes, and take down some trees.

While not the staggering rainfall totals seen in South Florida from Eta, where estimates are between 20-25 inches (508-635 mm), the 2-6 inches (51-152 mm) that fell over Central Florida were enough to cause problems. The combination of flooding from rainfall and surge led to numerous water rescues, including 33 people in Pinellas County alone. A man in Bradenton Beach was electrocuted, and died, as he touched an appliance in his flooded home.

Florida was not the only state to see effects from Eta. Moisture drawn in from Eta combined with a cold front to produce devastating flooding in North Carolina from Wednesday into Thursday. 5 deaths are attributed to Eta across that state as rainfall, up to 10 inches (254 mm) in some locations, triggered tremendous flash-flooding. Luckily, Eta will no longer pose a threat to any land mass as its remnants have moved well offshore of the U.S.

Meandering Eta Dumps Torrential Rain Across South Florida; Future Path Uncertain

Written by Team Morecast

 

Tropical Storm Eta, which struck Central America as a Category Four hurricane last week causing tremendous devastation, clipped southern Florida Sunday night. The most widespread hazard has been torrential rainfall, in some areas well in excess of a foot (305 mm) (see map below). Significant flash flooding has been reported, leading to stalled vehicles requiring water rescues. Some of the stronger bands have also produce damaging wind gusts of 50-65 mph (80-105 kph). The Florida Keys and the Miami metro area have been particularly hard hit (see tweet below). However, as Eta has pulled away from the region, impacts have subsided somewhat.

 

 

 

 

Eta is the 28th storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, tying a record for the busiest season on record. Eta has already been responsible for approximately 250 deaths, including 150 in Guatemala. After bashing Central America, Eta has gone through cycles of weakening and strengthening over land and water. The storm moved north and made a second landfall over Cuba on Saturday. It then turned west and moved slowly across the Florida Keys on Sunday into Sunday night. The frequent proximity to land and lateness of the season have hampered Eta’s ability to gain strength. The storm has ingested a significant amount of dry air, toxic to a healthy tropical cyclone. Current satellite imagery of the storm over the southeast Gulf of Mexico (see tweet below) shows a storm relatively devoid of strong thunderstorm activity in its core. Eta will have a hard time intensifying as long as this dry air is being incorporated into the structure.

 

 

Given the weak steering winds and uncertainty about intensity, it’s no wonder that model guidance shows a wide variety of potential paths for the system. Some take it towards Tampa Bay, others towards Louisiana or even further west. Fortunately, almost none of the models show a significant amount of strengthening. Nevertheless, residents all along the US Gulf Coast should keep a close eye on Eta this week. Lead photo courtesy flickr user Carvalho.

Eta Lashes Central America; Eyes Cuba, & U.S.

Written by Team Morecast

After making a landfall near the town of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua on Tuesday as a Category 4 hurricane with winds of 140 mph (225 kph), Eta, currently a tropical depression, has been ravaging the countries of Nicaragua, Belize, Guatemala, and Honduras for the last several days. Another record breaker, Eta is the 28th named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, tying the record set in 2005 for most named storms in one season. Eta is also the third strongest hurricane to occur during the month of November in the Atlantic, as well as only the fifth hurricane to reach Category 4 strength or higher throughout the month. It also was only the fifth storm recorded of greater than or equal to Category 4 strength to strike the country of Nicaragua.

Damage across the region has been described as catastrophic by local officials, with multiple effects of the storm causing havoc. The perilous winds have damaged thousands of homes and structures, with many roofs simply peeled off like a sticker. Due to lack of instrumentation, an official measure of the storm surge at the coast has not been confirmed, but estimates are that it ranged from 15-21 feet (4.5-6.4 meters).

By far, the most devastating effects from Eta have been the heavy rains. The slow moving, almost snail-like pace of Eta, has made the storm an extremely prolific rainmaker. Astronomical rainfall totals have been recorded, including 13.98 inches (355 mm) during one day, in Puerto Barrios, Guatemala, while the average over the last several days has been between 20-40 inches (508-1016 mm) in many locations. The relentless rains have triggered widespread flooding and landslides. The Ulua River in Honduras has seen a water level rise 13 feet (3.9 meters) higher than what was recorded during Hurricane Mitch of 1998, the benchmark storm for the region.

57 people have been confirmed dead, while numerous others are missing. Most of the deaths have been attributed to the rampant landslides. One such example is in the town of San Cristobal Verapaz, Guatemala, where a water logged mountainside gave way, and sent tons of mud and rocks flowing into the village below. 25 people were killed.

Eta is forecast to remerge over the open waters of the Caribbean Sea on Friday. Although some strengthening is expected, it is likely to remain just a tropical storm by the time it reaches Cuba on Sunday morning. South Florida may be begin to see the effects of Eta as early as Sunday evening after it crosses over Cuba.