Category: Posts EN

Tropical Storm Henri Takes Aim at New England!

Written by Team Morecast

 

Tropical Storm Henri is gaining intensity tonight and is nearly up to hurricane strength. Henri is entering the warm gulf stream waters off the Southeast U.S. coast. Upper level winds are also easing over the storm’s path. These favorable conditions will allow Henri to become a hurricane by early Saturday. Henri has turned north and is picking up speed. Although it is not certain exactly where landfall will occur, residents along the coast of southern New England should prepare for dangerous high winds and storm surge flooding as early as Saturday night.

 

 

Model guidance indicates the hurricane will be pulled north by an upper level low over the Midwest. Landfall will likely be over Long Island on Sunday morning. A destructive storm surge up to five feet will inundate the coast from Long Island through Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, including the islands of Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard. Freshwater flooding is also likely, especially from Long Island into Connecticut, as rainfall amounts approach 10 inches (250 mm) in spots. Gusty winds up to 80 mph (130 kph) will combine with rain-weakened soils to knock down many trees and powerlines, leading to widespread power outages that could last for days. Conditions over southern New England will deteriorate quickly Saturday evening.

Massive Wildfires Burn Across the American West; Choking Smoke Spreads Across the U.S.

Written by Team Morecast

 

Dozens of wildfires are burning across the Western United States and adjacent Canada, having already consumed well over a million acres in total. Unusually hot and dry weather in the last few months has led to dangerous fire-prone conditions across the region. Now lightning associated with dry monsoonal thunderstorms is sparking fires, many of which are quickly growing out of control. The largest is the Bootleg Fire in drought-stricken Oregon. At nearly 400,000 acres, the fire is bigger than New York City. It is already the third-largest in the state’s modern history. Despite round-the-clock efforts by hundreds of firefighters, as of Tuesday evening it is only 30% contained. The fire has already destroyed numerous homes and businesses and forced thousands to evacuate. Officials expect that it may take months to fully extinguish the massive blaze. Up to 100,000 additional acres may be incinerated by then.

 

 

 

 

The fire is so large and hot, it’s creating its own weather, including towering clouds, lightning, and high winds. These are in turn severely hampering the efforts of firefighters and even sparking new wildfires nearby. Smoke from the Bootleg and other fires is climbing far into the upper atmosphere and being carried thousands of miles by strong jet stream winds. Significant amounts of haze and smoke have spread across the Midwest and Northeastern US, causing major air quality issues in those regions (see tweet from NYC above). Forecasters do not foresee any significant chances for widespread precipitation in the coming weeks over the West, and above-normal temperatures will continue.

Elsa Picking Up Strength, Now a Hurricane Skirting the Florida Coast

Written by Team Morecast

 

Tropical Storm Elsa intensified over the very warm waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and was reclassified a hurricane on Tuesday evening. Strong winds and heavy rains are raking the western Florida peninsula. The close passage of the cyclone is hampering rescue efforts associated with the tragic condo building collapse in Surfside, Florida. However, conditions should improve there as the storm pulls away on Tuesday. The hurricane is moving steadily north and will be making landfall on Wednesday morning near Cedar Key, Florida.

 

 

Elsa passed between Jamaica and Haiti over the weekend, then western Cuba on Monday morning. The Florida Keys were next by Monday night (see tweet video above). A peak gust of 70 mph was recorded at Key West. Elsa has turned north and is moving parallel to the west coast of Florida, pulling even with Tampa as of Tuesday night. The west coast of the peninsula is experiencing the stronger, eastern side of the cyclone. However, Elsa is a rather small storm so the worst impacts are limited to the coast and offshore areas. The Big Bend region of Florida will see the worst conditions Tuesday morning, including damaging winds and a significant storm surge likely up to 4-5 feet in prone areas.

 

 

Elsa is expected to move north through northern Florida on Wednesday before affecting Georgia and the coastal Carolinas. The most widespread hazard will be flash flooding (see rainfall forecast above), although locally gusty winds and even a few isolated tornadoes are possible. The storm will pick up speed as it moves northeast towards Cape Cod and Maritime Canada Friday into Saturday.

Once In A Lifetime Heatwave Bakes Northwestern U.S./Southwestern Canada

Written by Team Morecast

The U.S. Pacific Northwest and southwestern Canada are currently in the midst of a dangerous and historic heatwave, unlike ever seen before in this region of the world. Since Saturday, record high temperatures across the region have not just been broken, but have been downright obliterated. These records have not been just daily and monthly, but all time records. This heatwave, the result of an extensive dome of upper level high pressure, known as a ridge, is so rare that the likelihood of occurrence is once a millennium or greater.

When looking at the numbers, they are truly staggering, and more typical of the American Southwest than the Northwest. Sunday’s high of 104 degrees (40 C) in Seattle, Washington is the highest temperature ever recorded in that city, besting the previous record of 103 degrees (39.4 C) set in 2009. That was after hitting 102 degrees (38.8 C) on Saturday. The first time that the city reached the century mark during two consecutive days. Previously, Seattle has only hit 100 degrees (37.7 C) or above on three other occasions. The city even had a record high low when the minimum temperature on Sunday morning only reached 73 degrees (22.7 C), the highest low ever recorded.

Even more impressive than Seattle, were the numbers reached in Portland, Oregon. On Sunday the mercury rose to a sweltering 112 degrees (44.4 C) shattering the previous all time record high of 107 degrees (41.6 C) set in 1981, and that’s after Saturday’s high of 108 degrees (42.2 C) already hit that milestone. Most noteworthy, however, is the high of 116 degrees (46.6 C) in Lytton, British Columbia. This temperature is the highest temperature ever recorded in all of Canada, surpassing the previous all time high of 113 degrees (45 C) set in 1937.

These extremely high temperatures would be tough to handle in any other location, but what makes this situation more dangerous and unique is that many people that live in this corner of the globe do not have air conditioning. With average daytime highs in the mid to upper 70s (23-25 C) during the summer, the need for air conditioning is minimal, and heatwaves of this magnitude, or in general, are not common.

The searing heat has already led to thousands of people throughout Oregon and Washington losing power, as well as countless others being admitted to the hospital with heat exhaustion. Because of this, cooling centers have been opened without any limits on capacity. Hotels have also been booked solid, a boon for an industry decimated by Covid, as residents seek an air conditioned refuge.

More records are likely to fall by the waist side in the coming days as the heat rages on. The forecast highs of 111 degrees (43.8 C) in Seattle and 113 degrees in Portland (45 C) on Monday would again be new all time record highs. Areas further to east may top out in the 115-120 degrees ( 46-49 C) range. Exacerbating the heatwave is the ongoing severe drought throughout much of western North America.