The Return of the Southwest Monsoon

Over the next several weeks, a monsoonal pattern will occur over the Southwestern United States and Mexico. Rounds of rain and storms will occur during this time.

 

Pattern Details…..

 

A combination of a strong ridge of high pressure over the west coast, an upper level low over the Rockies, and plume of tropical moisture moving up through central Mexico will help provide a perfect set-up for monsoonal flow. The main hazards will be lightning, locally heavy rain, and gusty winds mainly during the afternoon into the early overnight. In addition, dust storms and haboobs can’t be ruled out with strong winds that could form along outflows of thunderstorms.

 

Good news is that this rainfall will provide some relief for the drought and hot temperatures across the region.

 

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Severe Storms Threaten Minneapolis & Upper Midwest Late Sunday

Scattered severe thunderstorms will threaten the Upper Midwest from late Sunday afternoon into the nighttime hours. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats in any severe storm. However, localized flash flooding is also a concern in the heaviest storms.

Severe Storm Details

Infrared satellite imagery from Sunday morning shows an abundance of clouds across the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota.

The culprit is a disturbance that is moving briskly across the northern Plains. Clouds and areas of rain over Minnesota for the first half of Sunday will give way to some breaks of sun in the afternoon.

In the late afternoon, after 5pm CT, the atmosphere will become ripe for clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms to develop. Initially, widely scattered storms are expected to form northwest of Minneapolis. These storms will become more numerous in coverage and drop southeast through Minneapolis during the evening hours.

By later Sunday evening, the storms will likely congeal into a bowing line segment. Damaging wind will become the primary threat later in the evening into the overnight hours as the storm complex continues marching southeast.