It’s been a quiet couple of months over the tropical Atlantic basin. Only two tropical storms have formed over the basin in August, both harmless short-lived cyclones over the open ocean. Indeed, this quiet period has lead to forecasters rolling back the expectations for the remainder of the season. However, there are indications that tropical activity could ramp up as we move towards the traditional peak of hurricane season in early September.
Thunderstorm activity is building over the Sahel, the region of central Africa that is a breeding ground for Atlantic hurricanes. Although not every storm wave that rolls off the African coast is destined to be a hurricane, conditions are becoming more favorable for development in the next week or so. Models suggest the wave currently approaching the coast will eventually become better organized over the open Atlantic. Other waves nearby are potential candidates as well.
This increasing activity means the odds are better that named storms will form in the next few weeks. That doesn’t mean there’s any immediate threat to the U.S. mainland, but we’ll be monitoring.